T-minus two days and counting before the Singiser family truckster heads up Interstate 15 and makes a beeline for Vegas, baby! If you aren't going to Netroots Nation 2010, why the hell aren't you?
While you mull over your decision to go (which, really, should only take you around 10-12 seconds), you can occupy yourself with a pretty super-sized edition of the Monday Wrap. Lots of data, especially in the one high-profile race that goes to the polls tomorrow, and one vanquished Democrat is really working hard to be the biggest a-hole of the campaign cycle.
All that (and more!) on the Monday edition of the Wrap....
THE U.S. SENATE
AR-Sen: Boozman has huge lead in Talk Business Poll
A new poll out today from Talk Business, conducted by the pollsters at Zata3, seems to imply that Blanche Lincoln has virtually no shot at keeping her seat in November. The poll has Republican Congressman John Boozman leading Lincoln by twenty-five points (57-32). Lincoln, obviously feeling some heat from publication of this poll, countered by sending around one of their own internal polls from late last month. That internal poll, for what it's worth, had Lincoln trailing by nine points (45-36) to Boozman.
NH-Sen: Is it bad when your opponent praises your endorsements?
This is a fun one: Sarah Palin took to Facebook yet again to offer her latest in a string of endorsements. This time, her recipient was none other than New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte. This will undoubtedly tick off candidates like Ovide Lamontagne, who has tried to corner the teabagger market, but it actually earned praise from a surprising source--the campaign of Democrat Paul Hodes:
Each broke her promise to the people of her state and resigned to advance her political ambitions...They're both more interested in catering to the far-right special interests than standing up for New Hampshire.
So do we hope Sarah Palin comes to campaign for Kelly Ayotte? You betcha.
PA-Sen: Toomey questions Obama patriotism before veterans
So much for that whole idea that Pennsylvania GOP Senate nominee Patrick Toomey was endeavoring to reinvent himself as a moderate in advance of the November elections. Late last week in Harrisburg, Patrick Toomey told The American Legion that "there are some in Washington who don't really believe in American exceptional-ism." In case anyone missed his nuance-filled comment there, he later confirmed that he was referring to President Obama.
THE U.S. HOUSE
ID-01: Lone teabagger-endorsed Dem repudiates endorsement
Interesting: conservative Democratic freshman Rep. Walt Minnick, who represents devoutly GOP territory in western Idaho, has rejected the endorsement of the Tea Party Express. Minnick, one of the five Democrats most likely to buck the party, cited the behavior of TPE leader Mark Williams as the reason for his decision to decline the group's endorsement.
MI-13: Another incumbent in serious primary peril?
Polls are starting to converge around a central theme in the Detroit area--longtime Democratic incumbent Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick is in serious trouble. A new poll taken for the Detroit News and WDIV-TV shows the incumbent trailing the leading Democratic primary challenger Hansen Clarke 38-30. This comes on the heels of an EPIC-MRA poll that showed Clarke up by an even slightly larger margin. Cheeks-Kilpatrick has clearly been wounded by the legal travails of her son, the former mayor of Detroit.
NV-03: When a toss-up is actually decent news for a Democrat
Democratic freshman Dina Titus has one hell of a race in her hands in the Vegas suburbs, as attested by a new poll out today from Mason Dixon. The poll has Titus leading Republican challenger Joe Heck by two points (42-40). This actually has to be considered reasonably good news for the incumbent, however. The last time M-D polled there, in April, Heck actually enjoyed a five-point lead. M-D did offer a few new options, including a Nevada-centric option known as "none of the above" (yes, it's actually on the ballot there).
OH-13: DCCC levels aim at self-funding GOP candidate
You can alternately read this as something to cheer or something to be concerned about. The DCCC blasted Ohio Republican candidate Tom Ganley, accusing the former car dealer of trying to buy his way into the United States Congress. The merits of the case are pretty unimpeachable: Ganley has self-funded his campaign to the tune of $6.5 million. And it is always welcome to see the Democrats get after a Republican rival. But one has to wonder if it is a bit unnerving to see the Democrats targeting a seat where Barack Obama easily carried the district, and incumbent Betty Sutton has scored two easy wins since 2006.
WI-07: Was Obey pushed into retirement by bad polling?
The details of this story are certainly curious, and certainly more than a little difficult to easily explain away. The site Wispolitics is reporting that newly retired Congressman David Obey's FEC reports show that he paid for polling less than two weeks prior to his retirement announcement in early May. Did Obey decide to leave on his own terms, rather than being ushered out of office in a rough election cycle? It is hard to envision a scenario by which Obey polled, got great polling news, and then elected to retire, anyway. While that is possible, of course, it doesn't feel quite as plausible.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
AL-Gov: About that Artur Davis endorsement...
When state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks soundly defeated Congressman Artur Davis in their Democratic primary for Governor in June, Davis told his supporters to unite behind the nominee. He might do well to adhere to his own advice. In the wake of Robert Bentley's claiming of the Republican nomination last week, Davis is opening his yap, offering fulsome praise for Bentley and burping up some right-wing talking points on Sparks, including that he was the candidate of "activist, liberal Democratic voters."
AR-Gov: Is Beebe only up single digits? One pollster says "yes"
The same Talk Business Poll that showed a huge gulf between Boozman and Lincoln in the Senate race also had a gubernatorial result that might put a little tinge of skepticism into the whole survey. The poll has Democratic Governor Mike Beebe leading Republican Jim Keet, as all other pollsters have done. This poll, however, had the race in single digits (49-40). Even Rasmussen, by comparison, had the race as a 24-point Beebe lead as recently as last month.
GA-Gov: Trio of polls show Handel as clear leader, Oxendine fading
On the eve of the Republican Primary in the Peach State, three separate independent polls all have common themes: Secretary of State Karen Handel has established herself as a clear frontrunner, while longtime frontrunner John Oxendine's numbers are fading noticeably. Mason Dixon has not been in the state in a while, but they have Handel leading with 29% of the vote, well ahead of Oxendine (22%), Congressman Nathan Deal (20%), and former state legislator Eric Johnson (13%). Worse news for Oxendine can be found in the new polls by Magellan Strategies and Insider Advantage, both of whom have him in fourth place. Both polls have Handel with double-digit leads over Deal. The top two candidates will continue onward to a runoff in early August, unless Handel can somehow can manage to make it to a majority.
MI-Gov: GOP primary poll shows coin flip with two weeks to go
With thirteen days until primary day, there are still a trio of Republican candidates with a legitimate shot at the nomination, according to a new poll taken for the Detroit News. Both Attorney General Mike Cox and Congressman Peter Hoekstra run up front, with 26% of the vote. Businessman Rick Snyder is now clearly in third, notching 20% of the vote. Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard is running a distant fourth with 12% of the vote. In other Michigan gubernatorial news, Rick Snyder's campaign to target moderates in his own party got a boost from an endorsement of one of the leading moderate voices in the Michigan GOP: former Republican Congressman Joe Schwarz.
NE-Gov: Dems find candidate to claim ballot line in gov's race
I suppose this qualifies as good news for the Democrats in Nebraska: they were able to find a candidate willing to take the Democratic nomination for Governor. Mike Meister, an attorney who has run statewide previously, has agreed to take the nomination. He faces incumbent Republican Dave Heineman, who will be overwhelmingly favored to earn re-election in November.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
After having some results that were actually in line with other pollsters, the House of Ras starts this week by being Ras, again. Republicans cleaning house, literally from Alaska to Maine. Can't keep Ras from being Ras, can you?
AK-Gov: Gov. Sean Parnell (R) 53%, Ethan Berkowitz (D) 34%
AK-Gov: Gov. Sean Parnell (R) 57%, Hollis French (D) 29%
AK-Gov: Ralph Samuels (R) 48%, Ethan Berkowitz (D) 36%
AK-Gov: Ralph Samuels (R) 49%, Hollis French (D) 30%
AK-Gov: Bill Walker (R) 46%, Ethan Berkowitz (D) 38%
AK-Gov: Bill Walker (R) 50%, Ethan Berkowitz (D) 32%
ME-Gov: Paul LePage (R) 39%, Libby Mitchell (D) 31%, Elliot Cutler (I) 15%
PA-Sen: Patrick Toomey (R) 45%, Joe Sestak (D) 38%