Last week, Jim Geraghty of the National Review published a post arguing that Sharron Angle is in the midst of implementing a strategic and savvy campaign against Harry Reid, and that her plan is working. I responded to his post by arguing that while she is undoubtedly following a strategy (it would be amazing if she wasn't), there isn't much evidence it actually is a good strategy as of now. Mr. Geraghty was kind enough to respond to my unsolicited comments, which I take as an invitation to continue the debate.
Mr. Geraghty notes:
There’s a new Mason-Dixon poll out this morning that puts Reid up 2. It’s the only one done since the first of the month; Reuters-Ipsos conducted a poll that ended August 1 that showed Reid up 4. To get a sense of momentum or movement in a race, I prefer to compare a poll to the previous one conducted by the same pollster; you figure that whatever the quirks of an individual pollster, that pollster is consistent in their quirks. The Reuters-Ipsos one was their first in the state, so we have nothing previous to compare it to and get any sense of movement.
As he notes, a new Mason-Dixon poll has emerged putting Reid up 2. That's a one point improvement for Reid from the immediately preceding Mason-Dixon poll. I don't put much stock in a one point swing in a poll (it's all within the margin of error), but Mr. Geraghty would be good to note that a shift from Reid +7 to Reid +1 (now +2) is also within the margin of error. The point is, of course, that Mason-Dixon continues to show a lead for Reid (even a tenuous lead), and that's an improvement from his status earlier in the year when most thought Reid would lose his reelection bid.
As I noted earlier, even if Mr. Geraghty is only looking to compare polling samples from the same pollster, he was opportunistic in selecting the Mason-Dixon poll. Rasmussen Reports has polled the race more consistently than Mason-Dixon (10 polls since December 2009 compared to 7 for Mason-Dixon), and their polls have shown a clear trend towards Reid in the race (from a high of Angle +11 on the date of the Republican primary to Reid +2 most recently). Mr. Geraghty also fails to note that a Mason-Dixon poll taken June 1-3, while before the Republican primary, showed Angle +3 at a time when Angle held a clear lead in the Republican primary polling (she was +9 over Lowden at that time with the primary one week away).
Mr. Geraghty next argues (in response to my point regarding a trend towards Reid):
Er, yes, but six of those seven polls showing Angle ahead were from before the primary, going back to March. How well did Nevadans — particularly independents — know Sharron Angle before the primary? How many folks saw her on the ballot as "not Reid"?
Mr. Geraghty makes my point here, albeit unintentionally. Angle was performing spectacularly against Reid before she became known to the public. So did all Republican challengers. In April of this year, for example, Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com gave a 77% probability that Republicans would take Reid's seat in Nevada. Her best strategy would have been to remain relatively quiet and continue being the "not Reid" candidate. Instead she went with a strategy designed to put her on television and in the voters' mind as much as possible. Instead of remembering that they don't like Harry Reid, Nevada voters are now constantly reminded that Sharron Angle seems nuts.
I must admit to appreciating Angle's strategy for two reasons. First, it appears to me to be backfiring, and because I strongly prefer Reid to Angle, that pleases me. Second, I am always bothered by campaigns (on either side) that are afraid to tell voters what they believe and get in front of the television cameras and crowds. It's true that exposure is often detrimental to a candidate, but the democratic process works best when voters can make an informed decision, and they can't make an informed decision when it's almost impossible to learn anything substantive about a candidate's views.
Angle may still win the race, but to do so she will likely have to run the cynical type of campaign I despise: avoid the cameras and voters (without literally running from them as she has in the past) and let Reid take his turn making the gaffes for a while.
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