Last week, Reuters-IPSOS set things straight on the Ohio Governor's race by showing Republican John Kasich beating incumbent Ted Strickland by nine points, 48-39. Today, Rasmussen confirms those numbers. Without leaners, Kasich leads by 8 at 48-40. Leaners included (which becomes more significant as we approach Election Day), Kasich leads by 10 at 52-42. Strickland's disapproval rating has risen to 56%. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...
Rasmussen had Kasich only three points in the lead just two weeks ago, showing that the trend is dramatically in Kasich's favor.
Today's poll is most significant because the Ted-head contingent, led by blogger Brian Hester (a former Strickland staff aide) celebrated the validity of the August 4 poll and said it proved that Strickland had the momentum, with the race "even." Clearly that is not the case.
For those wondering why Democratic-leaning pollsters like PPP and Quninnipiac have been quiet about this race since early June, the answer should be apparent. There is no law requiring a pollster to publish a poll once taken. Surely, those D-leaning pollsters have been polling the state this summer, but have not been able to deliver news that would not be crushing to Mr. Strickland.
The dynamic now apparent is even worse than that in the prefiguration of this race, which was the 2009 gubernatorial race in New Jersey. In that contest, Corzine, similarly beset by a rash of Democratic Party corruption in his state, suffered an early bottom in popularity, but exhibited gradual recovery in his poll numbers throughout the final months leading up to the election. In Strickland's case, the voter learning curve bends in the other direction, with more and more of Strickland's ties to corruption becoming clear as the months roll by.
This all still comes as a surprise to out-of-staters, who remember Ted Strickland as a "popular" man. Indeed, popularity was Ted's chief justification for running; despite a total lack of tangible accomplishments, he still seemed personable and "likable" -- on paper.
All of that changed in June, 2009, when Strickland broke his solemn vow to oppose state gambling, as well as his constitutional commitment to produce a balanced budget. In one fell swoop, Strickland not only proposed racetrack casinos, but he said the casinos could be authorized without a statewide referendum, even though voters had rejected state gambling four times at the polls. On top of that, Strickland proposed that "future casino tax proceeds" be counted as "current income" for purposes of balancing the 2010-2011 state budget.
As if that wasn't enough, Strickland later admitted that the Cook-the-Books scam was his "biggest mistake as governor," but in elaborating on that remark, he clarified that his mistake was in failing to realize that the Ohio Supreme Court would find the scheme unconstitutional. This is the classic criminal's remorse of regretting getting caught.
But that wasn't the end of it. Under an agreement structured by the Court, voters would be asked to approve the new casinos in a referendum on the 2010 general ballot. This became unacceptable to Mr. Strickland, since it would, naturally, highlight his "biggest mistake" at the same time as voters were asked to reelect him. Therefore, after promising voters a chance to weigh in as part of his penance, Strickland broke that pledge and announced in July of this year that there would be no referendum in November after all, as a result of a back-room deal reached with state Republicans.
These kinds of shenanigans, on top of a spectacular string of Democratic corruption scandals throughout the state, made Strickland unsellable goods to Ohio voters of any party persuasion. The ethical and responsible course of action was for Strickland to withdraw from the reelection race, if not resign as governor.
But that did not happen, and now all Ohio Democrats will pay the price.
The good news is that the polls are now sufficiently definitive that this stupid idea of Strickland winning reelection should now be quashed. Congressional candidates and other down-ticket Democrats must now proceed to sever ties to Mr. Strickland, assert their independence, and fare as best as they can, saving some brand integrity for the Democratic Party.
It is important to save other Democratic candidates in Ohio. Ohio is kind of an important state.
The Age of Denial is over.