The forecast track for Hurricane Earl hasn't changed much this afternoon. The storm is still a category 4 hurricane and may be undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, and if so it could well be at or near maximum intensity during a possible close approach to the US tomorrow evening. It's tough call how close that might be, when a storm is on this kind of course even tiny variations can mean the difference between it moving away from shore and closing in. And if it does begin closing, because of the geometry of the eastern seaboard and the storm's heading, it could potentially close fast. That's why there remains a small but very real chance that it comes close to or even hits somewhere between NC and Maine.
Not trying to scare anyone, but just as public service let's talk about what a hypothetical category 2 hurricane is like for the average homeowner. In a solidly built home you're probably protected from the elements. But, odds are the power goes out in which case there's no info at all; no internet, no cell phone, oh and maybe no water. There's nothing to do but sit there and listen to howling, screaming wind and debris slam into your house. At peak intensity you'll be able to see walls and ceilings flex, paint flecks may come down in a brief indoor snow flurry, you may wonder if that's a precursor to the roof peeling off. It's stressful.
For at least nine out of ten homes the roof stays intact and no trees crash through a window or door, the storm passes, and that's when the real misery starts. Imagine camping out, with no water, no power, no food except what you have in cans, no refrigeration, no AC, no internet access. Power may be out for a few hours or it may be out for a few weeks, it's a roll of the dice. Sure, for the first two or three days you'll grin and bear it like a red-blooded American pioneer, but within four or five days, if that power isn't back on, you're gonna reach a breaking point. And past that, every day life just starts unraveling. It's also dangerous as hell, especially for kids. Broken glass, jagged edges, power lines down, backed up sewers, it's a microbe Mecca.
That's what it's like in a typical cat 2 hurricane. Imagine a cat 3 or worse? Point being, in the unlikely event Earl takes an unexpected, more nefarious course, even if it weakens, this is something you probably don't want to experience. What better excuse to consider taking a five day weekend, visit a friend or family member further inland! If things looks worse tomorrow morning, warning time could be short. It's a good idea to have your car gassed up and your plans made. Odds are you won't have to rely on those plans, odds are it will be sunny and nice all weekend and you'll be able to laugh at silly meteorologists. But in the meantime you'll feel better having them.