So I was looking over random election diaries today and I came across these two comments:
Had this been some piece of garbage from Rasmussen, I probably wouldn't have thought twice about it.
A new poll from none other than Rasmussen shows Scott McAdams within 6 points of Teabagger Joe.
And if even Rasmussen is showing this at just 6 points ...
This whole 'Rasmussen has a huge GOP bias' is so ingrained in the mindset here (and on most left-leaning blogs) that people just can't seem to step back and realize how wrong it is. Both here and at Swing State Project, they are put in their own little section at the end of the polls as if they need to be quarantined or should be considered no more than an afterthought. SSS claims it's because they just ran out of ways to say 'Another sucky poll for Democrats' but the way they present the polls is clearly meant to devalue them.
Look, I know that Scott Rasmussen supports the GOP and if they win, he'll have a smile on his face. But he's a businessman first and foremost; he wants to make money and he can't do that if he puts out loads of crap polls. How many clients do you think R2K has these days? While it's true that Ras was using a likely voter screen way before anyone else was, that enabled him to pick up what looks like a large wave first. too. I can assure you that if things wind up the way they are looking now, Ras will be bragging about how he saw it first. And he should; pollsters get paid to spot trends. There can be no denying he was the first to pick up the Scott Brown momentum back at the start of the year.
As other pollsters are switching to LV models, they are finding the exact same sorts of numbers as Ras. And that includes this site's new pollster, the Dem-leading PPP. Do I have to link to the races?
PN-Sen
PN-Gov
OH-Sen
OH-Gov
AK-Sen
NV-Sen
NC-Sen
Gen Cong
Ras isn't even showing the best GOP numbers in many of these races. Also, he's starting to push leaners - I don't know if the other pollsters are doing that and I'm not sure if that will benefit the GOP or Dems. Depends on the race, I expect.
The truth is, Ras was the canary in the coal mine. But everyone decided to ignore the dead canary because the canary happened to be red, not blue. It probably didn't help that R2K was providing some different numbers but those turned out to be not credible in the end. Ras hasn't helped themselves by being chicken about polling just before elections, but PPP has and they've had a good record. And they are getting the same sort of numbers as Ras is. If A=B where 'B' is the correct answer, logic follows that A is also correct.
This is not a 'sky is falling' diary. It's not like many of us as individuals can change much other than our local races. Work hard for your candidate and don't worry about the rest. Only people like Kos (who I really hope shuts about about his Crist-love now) who have a national voice can have any sort of influence and that's marginal. The economy is driving this for the most part. When a wave if coming, you lash yourself tightly to a tree and hope to be one of the survivors. But can we finally stop bashing Ras for being the first weatherman to report that a wave was on the way?