This diary will discuss the current state of the 2010 gubernatorial and senatorial races in the North Region (Norte) of Brazil, to identify the general political trends from region to region and state to state. The election will be held on October 3rd.
Basic background information on the structure of Brazilian Elections and the current partisan balance of Congress can be found in diaries here and here. The Southeast, South, Northeast and Central-West have all been discussed in earlier diaries.
Brazil's North region is the largest and least densely populated. It covers 42% of Brazil's total land area. Six of its seven states lie completely within the Amazon rainforest. This diary will cover the remaining four states in this diary series: Amazonas, Acre, Rondônia, and Roraima.
The political alignments of the larger parties are shown below. There are also a number of smaller splinter parties from across the political spectrum, and these will be described when necessary.
Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) - left
Workers' Party (PT) - left-center
Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB) - center
Progressive Party (PP) - center-right
Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB) - center-right
Democrats (DEM) - right
(For the sake of comparison, on this spectrum the Democratic Party in the USA would be center/center-right and the Republican Party extreme-right.)
In most states, the PSB and PT join together to support the same candidates (and avoid splitting the vote). The same is true for the PSDB and DEM. The more politically centrist (and theoretically "bigger tent") parties such as PMDB and PP may sometimes join with the left in one state and with the right in another.
Amazonas
Brazil's largest state is also the state containing the largest untouched areas of Amazon Rainforest. The capital, Manaus, is a modern city with growing industry, however, outside its immediate vicinity, the jungle reigns supreme. Thousands of native villages are scattered across this vast region, many of them only reachable by boat after days of travel. In some areas, native languages are still spoken, though these are becoming extinct at a rapid pace.
The jewel of this state is, of course, the Amazon River and its network of tributaries, carrying within them one-fifth of the Earth's total river flow. Even this natural treasure is not immune to man's tampering, however. In 2005 (and again today in 2010), the state was hit with severe droughts, causing many of the rivers to dry up completely and leaving some settlements unreachable. The causes are not completely known, but it is theorized that warming of the Atlantic Ocean is disrupting normal rainfall patterns, though the effect of deforestation on the capture of moisture from the atmosphere cannot be discarded as a contributing factor.
As in many other states, sitting governor Eduardo Braga is term-limited and decided to step down in March in order to run for Senate. His Vice-Governor Omar Aziz of the tiny National Mobilization Party (PMN) took over and is running to keep the statehouse. Amazonas has some of the most confusing partisan coalitions of any state. The traditionally leftist PMN decided earlier this year to abandon Lula and Dilma and throw their support behind PSDB candidate José Serra for President. In Amazonas, however, they have formed a bizarre coalition with the centrist PMDB, the rightwing DEM, and the Communists! The PT has allied itself with the centrist PR behind Senator Alfredo Nascimento, who is a former Transportation Minister under Lula. The PSDB, for its part, is supporting Manaus city council member Hissa Abrahão, who might as well be invisible for all of the support he's been able to generate. Currently, Omar Aziz has a sizable lead and appears to be heading towards a win in the first round.
Governor (AM) -- 13-September (previous 29-July)
I-Omar Aziz (PMN) | 53% | (49) |
Alfredo Nascimento (PR) | 32% | (37) |
Hissa Abrahão (PPS) | 2% | (1) |
Others | 2% | (2) |
|
Blank | 2% | (4) |
Undecided | 8% | (7) |
In the race for Senate, the two incumbents are taking a beating. Governor Eduardo Braga has near universal support and is all but guaranteed one seat, while Communist Vanessa Grazziotin has moved ahead of Arthur Virgílio Neto of the PSDB in the race for the second seat. Arthur Virgílio has been one of Lula's most strident critics in the Senate, and this is probably responsible for his fall in the polls. Amazonas gave Lula a higher share of the vote than any other state in his 2006 re-election bid: 78% in the first round and an amazing 87% in the second. Dilma Rousseff leads José Serra here by a similar margin of 77%-10%.
Senate (AM) -- 13-September (previous 29-July)
Note: percentages sum to 200% because each voter casts 2 votes - the top 2 vote-getters will win in the first round
Eduardo Braga (PMDB) | 80% | (86) |
Vanessa Grazziotin (PCdoB) | 39% | (33) |
I-Arthur Virgílio Neto (PSDB) | 34% | (43) |
I-Jefferson Praia (PDT) | 9% | (8) |
Others | 15% | (13) |
|
Blank | 2% | (1) |
Undecided | 12% | (7) |
Only named 1 candidate | 17% | (18) |
Acre
Acre was once part of Bolivian territory, settled by Brazilians in pursuit of natural rubber, which can be extracted from the seringal trees that grow abundantly in the region. In 1899, the acreanos declared their independence from Bolivia and proclaimed the "Republic of Acre." This region was definitively incorporated into Brazil as a territory in 1903 and was granted statehood in 1962.
Acre is famous as the birthplace of labor leader and ardent environmentalist, Chico Mendes. Mendes organized movements among rural workers to protect the forest beginning in the 1970s with the creation of "extractive reserves" (collectively-owned sustainably-developed forest lands) and was a strong supporter of indigenous rights to the land. In 1980, he helped found the PT, which is still the strongest political party in Acre. His environmentalism garnered world-wide acclaim, and stirred up hatred among wealthy land-owners and "developers." He was assassinated in 1988, but his legacy lives on today.
Acre is also the home of Green Party (PV) Senator Marina Silva, the youngest female senator ever elected, former Minister of the Environment under Lula, and now candidate for President.
Current governor Binho Marques (PT) is the only governor in Brazil who can seek re-election but has chosen not to. At only 47 years of age, he admits to enjoying public service, but detesting election campaigns. Senator Sebastião ("Tião") Viana, also of the PT, is running to replace him and is practically a shoo-in for the office, currently holding on to a 30%+ lead.
Governor (AC) -- 1-September (previous 30-July)
Tião Viana (PT) | 58% | (63) |
Tião Bocalom (PSDB) | 25% | (21) |
Others | 1% | (1) |
|
Blank | 4% | (5) |
Undecided | 12% | (9) |
Former governor Jorge Viana, brother of Sebastião, is running for Senate to replace ex-PT member Marina Silva, and also holding a large lead. The only candidate from the right-leaning coalition with any chance here is Sérgio Petecão of the tiny PMN, who is running slightly ahead of Communist Edvaldo Magalhães for the second Senate seat. Despite its strong PT bias, this is the only state in the union in which Dilma Rousseff trails José Serra... because of the large percentage of PT voters who are supporting Marina Silva.
Senate (AC) -- 1-September (previous 30-July)
Note: percentages sum to 200% because each voter casts 2 votes - the top 2 vote-getters will win in the first round
Jorge Viana (PT) | 63% | (64) |
Sérgio Petecão (PMN) | 38% | (35) |
Edvaldo Magalhães (PCdoB) | 31% | (27) |
João Correia (PMDB) | 11% | (7) |
Others | 2% | (3) |
|
Blank | 6% | (10) |
Undecided | 29% | (25) |
Only named 1 candidate | 20% | (29) |
Rondônia
When it achieved statehood in 1982, Rondônia was a nearly unbroken expanse of green canopy surrounding a few small towns and settlements. Less than 30 years later, half of the state has been deforested. Here, more than in any other place in Brazil, the price of unregulated "development" can clearly be seen. Rondônia also demonstrates the value of indigenous control of forest lands - large untouched remnants of pure green almost perfectly trace the boundaries of Indian lands.
The settlement of Rondônia has principally been migration from neighboring Central-Western states such as Mato Grosso, and Rondônia therefore shares with these states a center-right political viewpoint. In the state-level elections, four principal coalitions have been formed: a centrist coalition supporting the incumbent governor, João Cahulla (PPS); a center-right coalition supporting PSDB candidate Expedito Júnior; a left coalition behind PT candidate Eduardo Valverde; and an "eclectic" coalition of centrists, rightwingers, and leftists behind Confucio Moura of the PMDB. João Cahulla, who took over from Governor Ivo Cassol in March, when Cassol resigned to run for the Senate, holds a slight lead, but this race is practically guaranteed to require a run-off. Among the four main candidates, only Valverde of the PT seems to be out of the running - the other three are essentially tied within the margin of error.
Governor (RO) -- 1-September (previous 29-July)
I-João Cahulla (PPS) | 24% | (15) |
Confucio Moura (PMDB) | 22% | (21) |
Expedito Junior (PSDB) | 22% | (26) |
Eduardo Valverde (PT) | 8% | (6) |
Others | 1% | (1) |
|
Blank | 7% | (9) |
Undecided | 15% | (21) |
Governor Ivo Cassol leads in polling for the Senate race, followed closely by PMDB incumbent Valdir Raupp. Fátima Cleide of the PT is trailing by more than 20 points in her re-election bid, meaning that Rondônia will remain on the center-right politically for the next four years.
Senate (RO) -- 1-September (previous 29-July)
Note: percentages sum to 200% because each voter casts 2 votes - the top 2 vote-getters will win in the first round
Ivo Cassol (PP) | 52% | (45) |
I-Valdir Raupp (PMDB) | 47% | (39) |
I-Fátima Cleide (PT) | 26% | (29) |
Melki Donaldson (PHS) | 10% | (10) |
Others | 11% | (12) |
|
Blank | 5% | (13) |
Undecided | 23% | (34) |
Only named 1 candidate | 26% | (18) |
Roraima
The wild and rugged state of Roraima takes its name from its highest peak, Mount Roraima, which means "green mountain" in the language of the native Pemom people. This mountain and others in the surrounding range form unique ecosystems because of their sheer vertical sides and cloud-shrouded summits. These mysterious peaks have inspired many stories, including Arthur Conan Doyle's The Lost World as well as the Pixar animated film Up.
Roraima is Brazil's least populous state with around 400,000 people, of which 2/3rds live in the state capital of Boa Vista. Half of its territory lies within indigenous areas, and much of the rest falls within federally protected park lands and preserves. Because of this, Roraima is one of the states that has suffered the least from deforestation.
Politically, Roraima is one of Brazil's most conservative states. It gave Geraldo Alckmin his highest precentage of the vote in 2006: 60% in both rounds. Here, only two coalitions have formed: one behind incumbent governor Ancheita Júnior of the PSDB, and another behind centrist candidate Neudo Campos of the PP. Only one poll is available of this race, and it shows the incumbent with an 8% lead.
Governor (RR) -- 1-September (no previous poll)
I-Anchieta Júnior (PSDB) | 46% |
Neudo Campos (PP) | 38% |
Others | 4% |
|
Blank | 2% |
Undecided | 9% |
In the Senate, incumbent Romero Jucá of the center-right coalition is in first, with Angela Portela of the PT in second. Marluce Pinto of the PSDB is running third, and it is too close to determine yet whether or not PT will win a Senate seat in this traditionally strong center-right state. As with the governor's race, the polling is stale and more recent data is needed in order to establish trend lines.
Senate (RR) -- 1-September (no previous poll)
Note: percentages sum to 200% because each voter casts 2 votes - the top 2 vote-getters will win in the first round
I-Romero Jucá (PMDB) | 53% |
Angela Portela (PT) | 47% |
Marluce Pinto (PSDB) | 40% |
Telmário Mota (PDT) | 11% |
Others | 9% |
|
Blank | 2% |
Undecided | 23% |
Only named 1 candidate | 15% |
Next: This series is now completed, but I will continue to comment on the state of the presidential race, which is currently narrowing somewhat in the final week. There will also be diaries looking at the results from October 3 and the races that will require run-offs on October 31.