Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos. 9/25-9/26. Likely Voters. MoE 4.2% (2/25 results)
Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D) 49 (42)
Tom Mullins (R) 43 (36)
Incumbent Ben Ray Lujan has led throughout this race, not racking up huge numbers, but staying steadily ahead just outside the MoE. The enthusiam gap seems strongest in this district, which has been the safest for Dems in the state (this was Tom Udall's seat before he was elected to the Senate in 2008). Obama won this one 61-38, but Lujan is getting just 81 percent of Obama's vote this year.
Lujan leads with women by 14 points and Hispanic voters by 39, while white voters give Mullins an 11 point edge. Lujan doesn't have the popularity that either Teague or Heinrich garner, with a sub-par 42, and also is suffering the highest drop off from Obama voters in the three Dem districts. It would likely take a tsunami Repubilcan year for Lujan to be dislodged, but like Teague, a strong GOTV effort would certainly help. Obama's visit to the state today could help remotivate his New Mexico supporters.