As the mercury mercifully returns to double digits here on the Southern California coast, the heat does not abate on the campaign front. Tuesday brings another 35 polls to the 2010 database, with almost half of them emanating from somewhere within the vast Rasmussen empire. We also get internal polling from both parties that runs the gamut regarding Democratic prospects in the House, and one incumbent Democrat who seems to be in the midst of a resurgence.
All that (and more!) in the Tuesday edition of the Wrap...
THE U.S. SENATE
CT-Sen: Two new polls paint widely distinct pictures of the race
There are reasons to be at least a little skeptical of both polls which came out today in Connecticut, looking at the open-seat matchup for the U.S. Senate. The public poll normally gets more credibility, but there is once again a sampling issue that ought to raise eyebrows in Quinnipiac's new poll in the Nutmeg State. The toplines, for those who have not seen them yet, puts Democrat Richard Blumenthal up just three points on GOP nominee Linda McMahon (49-46). Why is there cause for skepticism? Well, anyone who read my Sunday Kos piece knows that the Q poll has had a recent penchant for really pessimistic samples for Democrats in their polls. How pessimistic? Well, if you applied the partisan breakdown of the 1994 exit polls to this race, you get Blumenthal 51.5, McMahon 44.0. In other words, this Q poll is projecting a turnout scenario which is markedly worse for the Democrats than even 1994. By way of contrast, the Blumenthal campaign released some data of their own at almost the exact same time that Quinnipiac was releasing their numbers. Their margin is considerably wider: Blumenthal leads McMahon in the GQR poll by a 52-40 margin.
GA-Sen: Suddenly, Insider Advantage poll sees a looming blowout
While no one has classified the Georgia Senate race as a blowout, most pollsters have held that Democrat Michael Thurmond would at least keep incumbent Republican Johnny Isakson to a reasonable margin of victory. Not so fast, according to Insider Advantage, whose new poll gives Isakson a rather gaudy 61-29 lead. Libertarian Chuck Donovan had polled reasonably well earlier in the cycle, but I-A has him sliding, as well (down to 3%).
NY-Sen: Both Dem incumbents lead by double digits in Marist poll
In the topsy turvy week of polling in the Empire State, add another poll onto the side of the scales predicting a reasonably strong Democratic performance on Election Day. Marist looked at both Senate races in New York, and found both Democrats staked to a double-digit lead. In the race pitting freshman Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand and Republican Joe DioGuardi, the Marist poll puts Gillibrand in the lead by a 52-41 margin. Meanwhile, in the re-election bid of second-term Senator Chuck Schumer, the margin over Republican Jay Townsend is almost twice as large (58-37). Interesting note: the margin among "registered voters" were considerably wider--Gillibrand leads by 19 among RVs, and Schumer leads by over 30 points.
OH-Sen: Two polls give Portman double-digit lead (well...kinda)
The path to victory for Democrat Lee Fisher seems to be getting more and more difficult, according to a pair of polls released today. According to Ipsos/Reuters, the margin is now up to 13 points, according to the pollster, with Portman holding a 50-37 lead. Given that Ipsos/Reuters had a far sunnier assessment of the gubernatorial race (more on this later), it is hard to dismiss this poll as the result of a pessimistic sample or a tight LV screen. Meanwhile, CBS released a new poll in the Buckeye State this evening, and the outcome there clearly depends on who shows up. Among likely voters, Portman's lead in the CBS poll is similar to other polls this week, putting the Republican up by eleven points (45-34). However, among registered voters, the margin is cut nearly in half, with Portman up by a much more modest margin (41-35).
PA-Sen: Suffolk University puts Toomey margin down to five
Democrat Joe Sestak, while trailing for months, seems to be edging ever closer to parity with Republican Patrick Toomey. The latest evidence comes from Suffolk University, which puts Toomey out in front of Sestak by a five-point margin (45-40). The undecided votes, based on one stat cited in the story above, seem to lean Democratic. Perhaps this means that Sestak can close even further as the undecideds reassess the race.
THE U.S. HOUSE
CA-44: Calvert's lead in competitive rematch sits at 11 points
A poll sponsored by Democrats.com has taken one of the first looks of the cycle at a 2008 rematch that was decided by just four points in 2008. This time around, however, Republican Ken Calvert seems to be in a slightly better position (PDF file). Calvert leads Democrat Bill Hedrick by eleven points (49-38), according to the poll. Most of the undecideds come from core Democratic constituencies, implying that some tightening of the race is possible.
FL-22: Democratic poll gives Klein five-point advantage
A new Harstad Research poll for Project New West heads...well...east, looking at the 22nd district in Florida. Democratic incumbent Ron Klein enjoys a five-point edge over Republican Allen West, according to the poll. The survey was taken after last week's mini-kerfluffle, where the Florida Democratic Party included West's social security number in a mailer, raising howls of protest from the GOP candidate's camp.
MI-07: Dem pollster puts vulnerable Dem incumbent up by four points
For most of the cycle, it appeared that Republican Tim Walberg was the betting favorite to reclaim his House seat in a rematch with freshman Democrat Mark Schauer. That might well be changing. Just last week, a GOP pollster had the margin for Walberg cut to four points. And, apparently, there was more evidence in the offing. A poll from the district late last week, by Democratic pollsters Myers Research, actually puts Schauer into the lead. The poll puts Schauer at 49% and Walberg at 45%. Third party candidates narrow the race ever so slightly (45-43-5).
WV-03: DCCC poll confirms wide lead for veteran Democrat Rahall
Nick Rahall seems to be holding his ground, despite running as a Democrat in the gradually more hostile terrain of West Virginia. A new independent expenditure poll for the DCCC, conducted by Global Strategy Group, gives Rahall a double digit lead (55-37) over Republican Elliott "Spike" Maynard. GOPers had claimed earlier in the cycle that the race was a tossup.
WI-07: Dem poll shows a coin flip in tight open seat
Democrat Julie Lassa's campaign has released a new internal poll by Garin-Hart-Yang, and it is hard to argue that it inspires a ton of confidence. The poll gives Republican Sean Duffy the lead, albeit by a statistically significant single point (42-41), with conservative Indie candidate Gary Kauther notching 7% of the vote. The district has been held for decades by Democrat David Obey, but has been at least a little swing-y at the presidential level, implying a competitive race even in a neutral climate nationally.
RACE FOR THE HOUSE: Time for the NRCC to make a polling dump
Apparently, the campaign wing for House Republicans (NRCC) has learned a lesson from their opposite numbers at the DCCC. Today, they dropped a trio of internal polls showing Democratic incumbents trailing by margins ranging from 4-10 points. The closest race is in the Maryland 1st district, where an On Message poll puts Democrat Frank Kratovil down four points to Republican Andy Harris (43-39). The widest margin comes from the Florida 24th, where Fabrizio McLaughlin counters a Dem poll from yesterday by claiming a ten-point lead (49-39) for Republican Sandy Adams over Democratic Rep. Suzanne Kosmas. Splitting the difference was a Ayers McHenry poll in the Virginia 2nd district, where GOPer Scott Rigell holds a five-point lead over Democratic freshman Glenn Nye (45-40).
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
GA-Gov: Deal pulls back into clear lead, according to I-A poll
Nathan Deal, whose lead seemed to evaporate in mid-September, seems to have resurrected his lead somewhat, according to a new survey out this evening from Insider Advantage. The poll gives Deal 45% of the vote, leaving him with an eight-point edge over Democrat Roy Barnes (37%). A runoff is still a very real possibility, however, as Libertarian John Monds is still logging 5% of the vote.
MD-Gov: WaPo has largest lead yet for O'Malley
If the new Washington Post poll in Maryland is legit, then Democratic Governor Martin O'Malley seems to have busted the gubernatorial race there wide open. The poll has O'Malley up double digits against former GOP Governor Robert Ehrlich, whether the poll screens registered voters or likely voters. Among registered voters, the lead is fourteen points (49-35). When the poll screens for likely voters, the lead tightens incrementally, but remains in double digits (52-41).
OH-Gov: Strickland in midst of big comeback, maybe even leads (?)
There is a big caveat here, but the first poll in months was released today showing incumbent Democratic Governor Ted Strickland with a lead over Republican challenger John Kasich. The caveat: the lead exists only when the screen is for all registered voters. That was the finding of the new poll from CBS, where Strickland leads by five points (44-39) among RVs. Among the tighter screen of likely voters, Kasich moves into a statistically insignificant lead (43-42). That one-point margin was echoed by new numbers from Ipsos/Reuters, which found the same one-point margin among likely voters (47-46). Not bad for an incumbent who looked to be down double digits just two short weeks ago.
PA-Gov: Dem tightening the race in another Midwest battleground?
Ted Strickland is clearly on the move in Ohio, but is lesser-known Democrat Dan Onorato doing the same thing in neighboring Pennsylvania? A pair of new polls out today imply that, indeed, that might be the case. While Republican Tom Corbett still holds the lead, the margin appears to be dissipating. A new poll from Suffolk University puts the margin at seven points (47-40), while Susquehanna Research (polling for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review) gives Corbett a six-point advantage (46-40). That is about half of the lead Corbett enjoyed as recently as two weeks ago.
THE (FILLED TO THE BRIM) RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
A baker's dozen of polls emanate from the House of Ras today, either from their site proper or from their subsidiary's arrangement with Fox News (yes, for those who missed the explanation earlier: "Pulse Opinion Research" is affiliated with Rasmussen).
Not all of the news is ugly for the Democrats, but (as per Rasmussen's modus operandi) most of the polls seem to favor the GOP.
CO-Gov: Hickenlooper (D) 44%, Tancredo (I) 34%, Maes (R) 15%*
CO-Sen: Ken Buck (R) 47%, Sen. Michael Bennet (D) 43%*
CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 50%, Tom Foley (R) 40%
IL-Gov: Bill Brady (R) 46%, Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 36%*
IL-Sen: Mark Kirk (R) 42%, Alexi Giannoulias (D) 40%*
IA-Sen: Sen. Charles Grassley (R) 55%, Roxanne Conlin (D) 37%
OH-Gov: John Kasich (R) 45%, Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 43%*
OH-Sen: Rob Portman (R) 50%, Lee Fisher (D) 37%*
OH-Sen: Rob Portman (R) 51%, Lee Fisher (D) 42%
WA-Sen: Sen. Patty Murray (D) 48%, Dino Rossi (R) 47%*
WV-Sen: John Raese (R) 48%, Joe Manchin (D) 46%
WI-Gov: Scott Walker (R) 49%, Tom Barrett (D) 45%*
WI-Sen: Ron Johnson (R) 52%, Sen. Russ Feingold (D) 44%*
(*)--Fox News/Pulse Opinion polls
