With less than 96 hours to go until election day, here is a round-up of the main election-related stories heading into the final weekend before the vote:
- Dilma Rousseff (PT) still leads by a large margin, but the potential for a second-round run-off has grown.
- The Supreme Court punts on the Clean Slate Law until after the election, leaving hundreds of "dirty" candidates in the race and creating a potential post-election nightmare.
- A new "anti-fraud" law requiring two forms of identification in order to vote is on the verge of being struck down in the Supreme Court. UPDATE: The law is struck down by a vote of 8-2 - only one ID will be necessary.
- Campaign advertising is removed from the airwaves ahead of election day. Only one debate remains for the Presidential candidates, tonight (Sep. 30th).
Full stories below the fold.
1. New polling shows a slight dip in support for Workers' Party (PT) candidate Dilma Rousseff, but a first round win is still the most probable outcome.
Four new polls of the presidential race are out this week (and at least two more, plus the daily tracker, are expected on the eve of the election) and they all show Dilma Rousseff's support retreating slightly from the peak it enjoyed earlier this month. A number of factors have come into play to cause this, first and foremost the revelation of a potential influence-peddling scandal on the part of the son of Erenice Guerra, former aide to Rousseff and successor to her position as Lula's Chief of Staff. The other principal factor has been the slow but steady growth in support for Green Party candidate Marina Silva. Although the "green wave" touted by Marina at each campaign stop is really not in evidence, her support has strengthened as an alternative for those now unsure about voting for Dilma, but who refuse to vote for tucano José Serra.
Let's look at the numbers:
| Datafolha | Ibope | Sensus | VoxPopuli |
| 28-Sep (16-Sep) | 29-Sep (17-Sep) | 29-Sep (14-Sep) | 29-Sep (14-Sep) |
|
Dilma Rousseff (PT) | 46% (51) | 50% (51) | 47.5% (50.5) | 49% (53) |
José Serra (PSDB) | 28% (27) | 27% (24) | 25.6% (26.4) | 26% (22) |
Marina Silva (PV) | 14% (11) | 13% (11) | 11.6% (8.9) | 12% (8) |
Blank | 4% (4) | 4% (4) | 3.6% (3.5) | 3% (4) |
Undecided | 7% (7) | 4% (8) | 9.5% (9.1) | 9% (12) |
The polls have been fairly stable, but two movements are clear across all four of them - the dip in support for Dilma and the increase in support for Marina. This movement, if it continues until Sunday, could cause the election to require a run-off, a similar situation to Lula's re-election bid in 2006, where his numbers dipped just below 50%. Most pollsters, however, don't see much more continued movement likely (barring some exceptional new "breaking" event), other than movement of undecideds. And, it is important to remember that the 50% threshold doesn't take into account blank votes. Making these adjustments, Dilma's percentage across the four polls stands at 51%, 54%, 54.7%, and 55%. Other than the Datafolha poll, this is a comfortable number to be heading into the final weekend with. If necessary, the second round election would be held four weeks later, on October 31.
2. Clean Slate Law in judicial limbo. Post-election havoc possible.
The Clean Slate Law has already been discussed in a previous diary, which mentioned how it had become deadlocked in the Supreme Court 5-5 (the 11-member court has one vacancy due to the retirement of a Justice in August). Unable to come up with a tie-breaking procedure after the fact, the Court adjourned without making a decision, only to have Joaquim Roriz, candidate for governor of Brasília, drop his case altogether and withdraw from the campaign, substituting his wife Weslian in his place. An elegant solution for the Court, who now have no pressure to make a ruling on the constitutionality of the law until another case is brought before them, which will now only take place after the election. Aye, there's the rub.
If the law is upheld after the election (possibly only after the installation of a new 11th justice), all those candidates who were running without a "clean slate" would have their votes annulled. Zeroed-out. If the number of votes annulled in a particular election were greater than 50%, a new election would be required. In the case of elections for Federal Deputies, which are proportional, annulling a candidate's votes would require a complete recalculation of a party's share of the vote and a shift in the number of seats it would gain. In other words, a complete nightmare. While I am in favor of the law and would have loved to see it in place for this election, the prospect of post-electoral chaos is downright scary. Put the law into effect for 2012 and let the voters sort out who deserves to win this time around.
One other note on this - all Supreme Court hearings are televised live in Brazil (imagine a C-SPAN-like channel, but for the court). It's fascinating stuff to watch, if you're a political junkie, that is. I've discovered that I have a platonic crush on Ellen Gracie Northfleet, who I would consider one of the finest jurists in the world, and that Gilmar Mendes is Antonin Scalia's long lost twin -- in looks, temperament, and judicial philosophy (ugh).
3. "Anti-fraud" law likely to be struck down as unconstitutional.
Another case before the Supreme Court looks like it might have a more promising outcome. A recent (2009) law states that all voters must now bring two forms of identification to the polling stations in order to vote. In that same old dynamic that we see in the States, attempting to limit the number of voters always helps the right wing... so this week, at the eleventh hour, the PT went to court seeking to throw out the law, claiming that it will not reduce fraud (one ID being sufficient to prove identity), but that it will create an unnecessary barrier preventing some registered voters from voting, mostly those from the poorer classes of society. The rightwing DEMs immediately petitioned the court to keep the law in place (yes, just as in every other place on Earth, a left-leaning party wants more people to be able to vote and a right-leaning party wants fewer.)
The voting stood at 7-0 in favor of striking down the law, and then Gilmar Mendes asked for more time to consider the case and was able to delay the final decision until tomorrow or Friday. Sad to resort to such tactics when the vote is already a majority, but that's just how the rightwingers roll...
UPDATE: As expected, Gilmar Mendes voted in favor of the constitutionality of the law, but it was struck down in the full court by a vote of 8-2. Only one form of identification will be necessary in order to vote.
4. Final preparations before for the election: no advertising, no arrests, no alcohol.
Tomorrow will be the final day for television and radio advertising before the election, according to electoral law. Graças a Deus! Not a moment too soon! The final televised debate between presidential candidates will be tomorrow night, in other words, the last chance to influence the electorate through the mass media.
Another interesting quirk of Brazilian law is that starting now until two days after the election, no one can be arrested (unless caught in flagrante.) This, of course, is enforced to combat that time-worn tradition whereby the opposition can be jailed en masse on trumped up charges, conveniently just when voting is about to take place. On election day, many jurisdictions will also be enforcing the lei seca, or "dry law." No alcohol may be served or publicly consumed at any time on election day, ostensibly to cut down on violence so often tied to excessive alcohol consumption. Celebrating your candidate's victory or lamenting a bitter defeat will have to be done in the privacy of your own home (or with a Guaraná).
Next diary: Barring some new late-breaking game-changing event, the next diary will be election night coverage of the results.