I was posting a lot about the Democrats chances for the midterm elections and why the outlook is so gloomy. Everybody thinks that the economy is the main culprit and if and when unemployment falls, voters will come back to their "motherly" party.
I think there are three other reasons why this might become a rout at the ballot box.
- A crazily exaggerated level of expectations (especially among base voters)
- A speed of change overwhelming many voters (especially among economically squeezed independents and conservatives)
- A complete failure to effectively communicate what Democrats are doing
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- When you make your mantra "Yes we can", there isnt anything worse than displaying to the world, that actually you can't. Case in point: the health care debate and how it became obvious that Democrats with huge majorities in both chambers would not be able to implement the change they campaigned on.
There are numerous other examples: Guantanamo. DADT. Financial regulation. The stimulus.
When you have the media talk about a "transformative president", any incremental progress will simply fall short.
When you talk about ending the influence of lobbyists and not following through after the election it will disappoint many mainstream voters.
Short version: Barack Obama and the media created such high expectations that it was simply impossible to meet them.
Some promises were exaggerations on the campaign trail, some were made impossible by democratic disunity and unexpectedly uniform republican opposition in the senate. Some were canned when Obama listened to the wrong advisers. Some got postponed because of Obamas instinctive urge to have bipartisan support.
All this together was bound to frustrate the ridiculously high expectations of the democratic base and others in the Obama coalition.
If we look at the achievements in a sober and neutral way we would observe that after just two years in office Obama has achieved more than Bill Clinton in his two terms. (Almost) universal healthcare, drawing back from Iraq, tighter regulations of financial industry and offshore drilling, more money for regenerated energy, executive orders to give gay federal employees equal rights. The stimulus (including the largest tax cut for the middle class in history, which democrats are to embarrassed of to claim credit for).
Which leads me to point No.
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- In a time of economic turmoil, when many people loose their jobs or are afraid to loose their job, "change" is suddenly a synonym for "threat"! Many people have to cope with enough change, because they have to change their way of life due to job losses, change their homes because they couldnt pay their loans, change their health care provider or nix him altogether because of drastic premium hikes etc.
Change has become kind of a dirty word.
But even if it hadn't aquired such a bad connotation, the sheer speed with which Obama and Congress have proposed mammoth legislation after mammoth legislation has left many voters anxious and uneasy. When not even lawmakers themselves read the thousands of pages of each new law, how is regular Joe expected to comprehend what "those in DC" are up to?
When one major legislation had gone through there was already talk about the next. No time for people to see how the former legislation affects them in real life. No time to breathe in between.
This feeling was probably made worse because people had just accustomed to a do-nothing-congress and an ineffective lame-duck president.
When conservatives are getting agitated over "Obama driving this country off the cliff" it certainly bears remembering, that "conservative" isnt a word without meaning. It means "averse to change". And if there is lots of change they will naturally freak out. Its the mirror image of restless progressives freaking out when nothing gets changed.
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- It goes without saying that the greatest communicator how many described Obama in 2008 and Democratic leaders have utterly failed at communicating what they are doing and how it will be good for regular americans. Allowing the Republican Party to define HCR, the stimulus, TARP etc. and turning popular legislation into devilish plots to enslave the american people, introduce socialism and secretly apply sharia law is totally beyond me. Where were the war rooms, where democrats would coordinate their message and forcefully reply to false claims by the Republican echo chamber? When did they forget about "offense is the best defense"strategy which served democrats so well in 2006 and 2008?
I am not saying that a lack off communication skills would find Democrats in a totally different situation now. But letting your "enemy" define the politcal discourse in both summers (health care townhalls in 2009, Park51 in 2010) you are bound to loose the fight for the public opinion.
Democrats will have to remember that agenda setting and having to win each media cycle doesn't just apply for the few weeks before an election.
The next election campaign begins on November 3rd!
Just don't completely forget about governing like Republicans usually do.