Ward Research for Hawaii News Now/Honolulu Star-Advertiser (5/4-10, registered voters, no trendlines):
Mazie Hirono (D): 57
Linda Lingle (R): 35
Ed Case (D): 54
Linda Lingle (R): 36
Colleen Hanabusa (D): 54
Linda Lingle (R): 39
Mufi Hannemann (D): 51
Linda Lingle (R): 36
Brian Schatz (D): 47
Linda Lingle (R): 43
(MoE: ±4%)
These numbers confirm the results of a Daily Kos/SEIU poll taken by PPP in March, which also showed former Gov. Linda Lingle losing badly to all comers. Lingle said just the other day that she'd make a decision on a possible run by the end of August, but I don't know why she needs another three months to decide. Hawaii Republicans do have a couple of other options — ex-Rep. Charles Djou and ex-Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona — but they fared no better than Lingle in our PPP poll.
More interesting is the "kitchen sink" primary that Ward Research tested, throwing all five major Dem names into one pile. This is what came out:
Ed Case (D): 26
Mazie Hirono (D): 25
Mufi Hannemann (D): 17
Colleen Hanabusa (D): 15
Brian Schatz (D): 7
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±4.9%)
There's no way we'll see a primary this crowded, but I do think that these numbers help provide a baseline picture of each candidate's level of support. One thing we don't have here, though, that PPP provided are cross-tabs shoing favorables just among Democrats. (You can click the link to see statewide favorables.) Those numbers are likely to be the most determinative of any primary outcomes, since everyone here is capable of running a real race.
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