61% of Iowa Republicans
say they won't
back anyone who supported a mandate
Jeff Zeleny
reports that Mitt Romney is starting to get actively involved in Iowa and might not end up skipping the state's caucuses after all.
Mr. Romney arrives here on Friday for his first time this year, for three public events and many more private meetings, the evidence suggests that he is leaning against a strategy of bypassing Iowa. He is the only candidate with a network of supporters in all 99 counties, many of whom say they have received calls from Mr. Romney’s aides in recent days.
In 2008, Romney invested heavily in Iowa, finishing behind Mike Huckabee (and ahead of John McCain). Nonetheless, despite his record of flip-flops on the social issues that dominate Republican politics in Iowa, supporters think he could do well in 2012:
Mr. Romney won 30,021 votes, or 25 percent. And when adding up the results of the other defeated candidates, Senator John McCain, former Senator Fred Thompson of Tennessee and former Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani of New York, about 55 percent of the voters supported someone other than a religious conservative.
“There’s a real opportunity for him to grab the establishment Republican vote — 35 or 45 percent of the people are really looking for a place to go,” said Doug Gross, the Iowa chairman of the Romney campaign in 2008, who remains uncommitted. “I haven’t come to the conclusion that I think he can win, but he could run a good solid campaign here.”
And how does Romney hope to appeal to establishment Republicans? According to Mike Allen's Playbook, his campaign his praying Sarah Palin runs:
Romneyworld strongly believes that if Palin gets in, he wins more easily. "The shock value would cause elected officials and party officials to rally around Mitt, because she'd scare the daylights out of them," one official said. "And it would allow him to position himself very much in the middle of Republican, conservative thinking and avoid the fringe, and look more moderate for the general election." Rep. Michele Bachmann would have the same effect, the adviser said. Either of them "gives Romney a bogeyman: 'Stop this crazy woman.'" Another top Republican said he relishes the idea of a Palin candidacy: "She'll be defeated, and we'll be done with her."
But even though Romneyworld may believe Palin doesn't have a shot at winning the GOP nomination, that doesn't mean Romney will see a surge of support. In fact, if establishment forces want to take down Palin, they are likely to back a candidate other than Romney out of fear that RomneyCare might be such a liability that it could actually give Palin a path to victory if he were the main alternative.
Remember, 61% of Iowa Republicans say there is no way they would ever support a candidate who had supported a health care mandate, even at the state level. Only 11% say they definitely could support such a candidate. And 25% aren't sure.
So if Republican poobahs end up freaking out about the possibility of a Sarah Palin candidacy, it won't necessarily be a good thing for Mitt Romney, because if they're looking for a candidate who they are sure can beat Palin, Mitt's not likely to be it.
Comments are closed on this story.