Tammy Baldwin is top non-Feingold option
Public Policy Polling (PDF) (5/19-22, Wisconsin Democratic voters, no trendlines):
Russ Feingold(D): 70
Tammy Baldwin(D): 12
Jon Erpenbach (D): 5
Ron Kind (D): 4
Steve Kagen (D): 3
Gwen Moore (D): 2
Kathleen Falk (D): 1
Barbara Lawton (D): 1
Someone else/Not sure: 3
Tammy Baldwin (D): 30
Steve Kagen (D): 17
Ron Kind (D): 16
Jon Erpenbach (D): 13
Gwen Moore (D): 6
Kathleen Falk (D): 4
Barbara Lawton (D): 3
Someone else/Not sure: 12
(MoE: ±3.5%)
One thing seems pretty sure: if Russ Feingold wants to get back to the U.S. Senate, he won't have any trouble getting through the Democratic primary portion of the obstacle course. He locks down 70% of the field in one of PPP's patented kitchen-sink primaries, and that number could go higher with fewer opponents. Of course, that's mostly a name rec differential right now, as only 7% of Dems have no opinion of Feingold (he's at 86/7 among all Dems), compared with 41% no opinion of Rep. Tammy Baldwin, 63% no opinion of ex-Rep. Steve Kagen, or 57% no opinion of Rep. Ron Kind, but it's likely they'd all stand down if Feingold wanted in the race. (PPP didn't even test favorables on the lesser options: state Sen. Jon Erpenbach, Rep. Gwen Moore, ex-Dane Co. Executive Kathleen Falk, and ex-Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton.)
However, there's a lot of speculation within the Beltway right now that Feingold isn't interested in another run, so PPP also took a look at a field sans Feingold, and, somewhat surprisingly to me, finds Baldwin, one of the most progressive members of the House not just in Wisconsin but the entire country, in fairly dominant position. That may be because Kind and Kagen split more moderate voters, and a two-way between Baldwin and Kind may proceed differently, but she starts out with the pole position for now. That's thanks to 45% support among those identifying as 'very liberal' and 32% support among the 'somewhat liberal,' while still holding a 23-22-16 lead over Kagen and Kind among the 'moderate.'
Public Policy Polling (PDF) (5/12-15, Wisconsin Republican voters, no trendlines):
Tommy Thompson (R): 36
Mark Neumann (R): 22
JB Van Hollen (R): 9
Jeff Fitzgerald (R): 8
Rebecca Kleefisch (R): 7
Scott Fitzgerald (R): 5
Reince Priebus(R): 4
Someone else/Not sure: 9
(MoE: ±3.8%)
While ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson is also frontrunner on the GOP side, his path to the nomination could get much bumpier than Feingold's (presuming that Thompson runs too, which isn't a done deal yet). Thompson, who has come under pre-emptive fire from the Club for Growth in recent days over various apostasies (especially his former support for the Affordable Care Act), is at 36%, with social conservative ex-Rep. Mark Neumann, the 1998 Senate loser to Feingold and the 2010 GOP gubernatorial primary loser to Scott Walker, not that far behind in a kitchen-sink primary.
PPP didn't poll a Thompson/Neumann head-to-head to see if all the votes for the lesser GOPers (AG JB Van Hollen, Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch, RNC chair Reince Priebus, and them ol' Fitzgerald boys, leaders of the two legislative chambers) would be evenly distributed or if they're anti-Thompson votes that would gravitate more in Neumann's direction. They did ask a simple question, though, which is pretty telling: on the question of whether Republicans want Thompson to be the nominee or not next year, 46% say Thompson and 45% say someone else, presaging a very close race if it's between Thompson and one not-Thompson (which will probably be Neumann). While moderates and 'somewhat conservatives' give Thompson the edge, 'very conservatives' prefer someone else 46-42.
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