This is my take at a Wisconsin Senate/Assembly map with a focus on Senate districts with compact and generally regular borders. It was not my intention to put a partisan advantage to the Democrats. My process was first to map all CURRENT 33 Senators and create a district around their homes. (It is too complicated to count in the recall candidates into this.) In particular, this was important for Senators in odd-numbered Senate districts as they are not up for a regular election until 2014. I did not take the current shape of the Senate district (or the Assembly Representatives within each district) into account when drawing the 33 Senate seats. Population size of each Senate Districts fall well-within-statutory limits, and population of each Assembly district is within what is statutorily allowed. In many cases, the same (current) 3 Assembly Representatives fall within their current Senate districts, but in a handful of cases this didn’t happen. In some cases, such as the SD-17, Assembly districts are mixed around. For instance, the general area covered under current AD-49, 51, and 96 are within the new SD-17. The vast majority all 99 new Assembly districts have one incumbent, but some have two and others ended up with none.
Here is the overall map, and a SE Wisconsin closeup:
Here is the breakdown, by Senate district. A picture of each new Senate district, showing the 3 Assembly districts within in various shades of the same color, is included. Names listed after Assembly district include all current Representatives living in the new district.
SENATE DISTRICT 1 (Lasee-R):
This is about the most compact I could get this district. Three Senators live in close proximity (SD-1 Lasee, SD-2 Cowles, SD-30-Hansen), so that offers less flexibility in assigning territory. The western flank of the district stays further north than the old district. This is a 55/43 Obama district, so I would rank it as a TOSSUP for 2014.
AD-1 (Bies-R): Minor changes to district to get to population equity. 56/42 Obama. TOSSUP in 2012
AD-2 (Jacque-R & A. Ott-R): Two Republican Representatives find their way into the new AD-2. A 51/47 Obama district, PROBABLE REP in 2012.
AD-3 (Steineke-R & Bernard Shaber-D): Two Representatives from other districts find their way into the new 3rd. The 57th’s Penny Bernard Shaber lives just on the other side of the new line between the 1st and 19th Senate Districts. Jim Steineke also finds himself in the new 3rd. Because this district is a 57/41 Obama district, and Bernard Shaber has a greater share of her current constituents, this district is PROBABLE DEM in 2012.
SENATE DISTRICT 2 (Cowles-R):
The new 2nd District does not go so far north as the current map, but does go further to the west. A 51/48 Obama district, this is a PROBABLE REP district in 2012.
AD-4 (Weininger-R): This district remains relatively the same. It’s a 53/46 Obama district, and it can be safely placed in the TOSSUP column for 2012.
AD-5 (OPEN) This district moves west to pick up New London and Weyauwega. It was 50/48 Obama, and is a PROBABLE REP in 2012.
AD-6 (Tauchen-R): The district keeps its center in Shawano, but moves both southeast and southwest from there. This is a SOLID REP area that voted 50/49 for Obama.
SENATE DISTRICT 3 (Carpenter-D):
This district becomes a 47/42 Hispanic plurality district based on total population, but is 50.1% white and 39.6% Hispanic based of VAP. The district runs a little further north on the west-hand side compared to the current district. A 65/33 Obama district in 2008, this will be a SOLID DEM in 2014.
AD-7 (Krusick-D): District reflects the moves indicated above. This is the most politically balanced part of the 3rd Senate District, and least racially diverse. Peggy Krusick is a long-time Representative, and should continue to run well. A 56/42 Obama district, I’d rank this a PROBABLE DEM.
AD-8 (Zanarripa-D): District fundamentally the same. 80/18 Obama. VAP is over 60% Hispanic. SOLID DEM.
AD-9 (Zepnick-D): 2008 Obama numbers not as high as AD-8, but still good for Zepnick. VAP is 47% Hispanic, while overall population is over 50% Hispanic. 67/31 Obama district. SOLID DEM.
SENATE DISTRICT 4 (Taylor-D):
Significant changes to the organization of the 4th & 6th Senate Districts to provide more compact districts. 74% black majority. 93/7 Obama. SOLID DEM in 2012.
AD-10 (Coggs-D): Her district remains largely the same. 63% VAP is black. 92/8 Obama. SOLID DEM.
AD-11 (Young-D): Young’s old 16th District becomes the new 11th District. 69% VAP is black. 92/8 Obama. SOLID DEM.
AD-12 (Grigsby-D): Grigsby’s district is now called the 12th. VAP is 80% black. 95/5 Obama. SOLID DEM.
SENATE DISTRICT 5 (Vukmir-R):
This district pushes further to the west. It is a 49/50 McCain district, the more Republican the further west you go! PROBABLE REP in 2014.
AD-13 (Cullen-D): District moves closer to the Waukesha Co. border. 59/40 Obama. PROBABLE DEM
AD-14 (Kooyenga-R): District is almost exclusely is Waukesha County now. 63/36 McCain. SOLID REP
AD-15 (Staskunas-D): Staskunas’s district moves farther north. 53/45 Obama. TOSSUP
SENATE DISTRICT 6 (Coggs-D):
This district becomes much more conservative than the current 6th. There is a white plurality (46% white, 43% black). VAP is 39% black and 53% white. Still SOLID DEM in 2012 with a 66/33 Obama vote in ’08.
AD-16 (Fields-D & Kessler-D): Jason Fields and Frederick Kessler both live within the new 16th district. 64% VAP is black. 86/13 Obama. SOLID DEM.
AD-17 (Toles-D): Barbara Toles 17th District shifts significantly to the west. VAP is 51% black. 78/22 Obama majority. SOLID DEM.
AD-18 (OPEN): The new 18th district is mostly in northeastern Waukesha Co., entering into Milwaukee for two voting districts. VAP is only 5% black. It’s also a 59/40 McCain district. SOLID REP.
SENATE DISTRICT 7 (Larson-D):
Next election is 2014. It’s a SOLID DEM with 61/37 Obama.
AD-19 (Richards-D): Richards’ district adds a few voting districts and loses a few. 71/27 Obama. SOLID DEM.
AD-20 (Sinicki-D): Sinicki loses some of the southeast part of her district and expands to the west a bit. 56/43 Obama. PROBABLE DEM
AD-21 (Rawson-R): Rawson’s district takes a northward shift, taking part of Cudahy and losing parts of Oak Creek. 53/46 Obama. TOSSUP.
SENATE DISTRICT 8 (Darling-R):
Her new district takes the northern section of Milwaukee County and nearly all of Ozaukee. It becomes 52/47 Obama. TOSSUP
AD-22 (Pasch-D): Essentially the same district. 63/36 Obama. SOLID DEM.
AD-23 (J Ott-R): District adds some territory. 54/45 Obama. TOSSUP
AD-24 (Stroebel-R): Much of Duey Stroebel’s former 60th district becomes the new 24th district. 60/39 McCain district. SOLID REP.
SENATE DISTRICT 9 (Liebham-R):
53/46 Obama. The district would become a TOSSUP if Liebham decides not to run in 2014, until then it is PROBABLE REP.
AD-25 (Ziegelbauer-I): The district extends north, but stays entirely within Manitowoc County. 55/43 Obama. Safe for Ziegelbauer as an Independent. If the race was open, it would be a TOSSUP.
AD-26 (Endsley-R): Most of the district is made up of the City of Sheboygan. 58/41 Obama. TOSSUP.
AD-27 (Kestell-R): Steve Kestell will represent the more rural sections of Manitowoc and Sheboygan Counties. 47/52 McCain. SOLID REP.
SENATE DISTRICT 10 (Harsdorf-R):
This is a 52/47 Obama district. PROBABLE REP in 2012.
AD-28 (Larson-R): Larson's home shifts from the 67th district to the 28th. The new 28th contains all of Dunn Co. and the eastern sections of St. Croix County. This district was 54/44 for Obama in ’08, and would be a TOSSUP.
AD-29 (Murtha-R): 52/46 Obama. PROBABLE REP.
AD-30 (Knudsen-R): 50/48 McCain. SOLID REP.
SENATE DISTRICT 11 (Kedzie-R):
This is Republican country. 56/43 McCain district. SOLID REP in 2014.
AD-31 (Nass-R & Wynn-R): Both Stephen Nass and Evan Wynn live in this district, as it moves to the west and picks up Wynn’s home in Whitewater. 58/41 McCain. SOLID REP
AD-32 (August-R): This is the most liberal of the three seats in this conservative area. 52/47 McCain. SOLID REP.
AD-33 (Vos-R): Western Racine Co., Robin Vos’s home, becomes part of the 33rd Assembly District. 57/42 McCain. SOLID REP
SENATE DISTRICT 12 (Holperin-D):
53/46 Obama. Although the Republicans have had a hold on the Assembly seats in the Northwoods for years, a Democrat has held this Senate seat for decades. If Holperin can survive the recall election, his is likely to win this seat in 2012. PROBABLE DEM.
AD-34 (Meyer-R): Meyer’s territory moves sharply to the east. He’s still a shoe-in to win. 50/49 McCain district. SOLID REP.
AD-35 (Tiffany-R): Tiffany was able to win in 2010 after other attempts to get into office. The new 35th shifts to pick up Rhinelander. This is a 56/42 Obama district that could elect a Democrat, but would safely be considered a TOSSUP.
AD-36 (Mursau-R): The new 36th has a much more east-west orientation. PROBABLE REP as a 53/45 Obama district.
SENATE DISTRICT 13 (Fitzgerald-R):
We now enter Scott Fitzgerald country. The new 13th is a 50/48 Obama district. Public perception may not help Mr. Fitzgerald, but time will tell as he is not due for election until 2014. PROBABLE REP then.
AD-37 (Jorgensen-D): Andy Jorgensen’s district changes little, and retains Fort Atkinson as its base. The area voted 57/42 for Obama, and is a PROBABLE DEM in 2012.
AD-38 (OPEN): The home of Lt. Gov. Kleefisch and her husband moves outside of the AD-38 and into AD-99, leaving this seat open. There is little chance of a Democrat picking this up, as it voted 54/44 for McCain. SOLID REP.
AD-39 (Fitzgerald-R): The brother Fitzgerald’s district picks up that part of Waupun in Dodge Co., extends a little into Dane Co., and loses Lomira and another town in eastern Dodge Co. The vote in ’08 was just slightly higher for McCain than Obama (49.5/49.1). PROBABLE REP.
SENATE DISTRICT 14 (Olsen-R):
The old 14th was a very oddly shaped district, extending from Clintonville all the way to Baraboo. The new district is more east-west and more compact. The district went 53/45 for Obama in 2008, and would be ranked as a TOSSUP in 2012.
AD-40 (Brooks-R): Brooks from the 50th would now be Brooks from the 40th, if he can get reelected. The district went 57/41 for Obama, so should be a PROBABLE DEM.
AD-41 (Ballweg-R): Ballweg would be strong here, as her district changes somewhat but not a lot. 54/44 McCain. SOLID REP.
AD-42 (Clark-D): Clark would win reelection in the 42th. 59/40 Obama. SOLID DEM.
SENATE DISTRICT 15 (Cullen-D):
The new 15th SD includes all of Rock Co. and the eastern parts of Green Co. It is a 64/35 Obama district. It should be a SOLID DEM in 2014.
AD-43 (Ringhand-D): Ringhand’s 80th AD shifts westward, so she is now in the 43rd AD. With a 64/34 Obama win in ’08, this district is a SOLID DEM in ’12.
AD-44 (Knilans-R): Knilans loses the western part of Janesville and extends to the northeast part of Rock Co. The district is a 64/35 Obama district, and should flip back in 2012 after being won by a Republican in ’10. PROBABLE DEM.
AD-45 (Loudenbeck-R): This is another district that is a more normal year should elect a Democrat. 63/36 Obama. PROBABLE DEM.
SENATE DISTRICT 16 (Miller-D):
Miller’s district loses territory due to Dane Co. population increase. The new district voted more than 2 to 1 for Obama at 67/31. SOLID DEM in 2012.
AD-46 (Hebl-D): Hebl maintains the eastern suburbs of Madison. SOLID DEM at 66/33 Obama.
AD-47 (OPEN): Keith Ripp’s home in northwestern Dane Co. moves into AD-81. So, the seat is open. The district picks up parts of Madison and Sun Prairie, so has to lose lots of rural territory in other areas. This is a PROBABLE DEM at 63/35 Obama.
AD-48 (OPEN): This district is currently vacant since Joe Parisi became the Dane Co. Administrator. It is in safe Democratic hands with a 73/26 Obama win here. SOLID DEM.
SENATE DISTRICT 17 (Schultz-R):
62/37 Obama in 2008. Dale Schultz is popular in his area. TOSSUP in 2014.
AD-49 (Tranel-R): Tranel’s district moves southeastward to cover most of Lafayette Co. and most of Grant Co. TOSSUP in 2012 due to a 61/38 Obama win.
AD-50 (Nerison-R): AD-96 becomes AD-50 under this plan, but gains some territory in Richland and Grant Counties. Another 61/38 Obama district, that should be a TOSSUP in 2012.
AD-51 (Marklein-R): AD-51 shifts northward and picks up Richland Center. TOSSUP with a 64/35 Obama win.
SENATE DISTRICT 18 (Hopper-R):
District moves eastward and picks up the eastern shore of Lake Winnebago. PROBABLE REP in 2012 regardless of the result of the recall.. Voted 52/47 for Obama.
AD-52 (Thiesfeldt-R & Spanbauer-R): Due to geography, Thiesfeldt and Spanbauer end up in the same district. Regardless of which one would win a primary, either is likely to win the general. SOLID REP (50/49 McCain).
AD-53 (OPEN): Most of Calumet and eastern Fond du Lac Counties end up in the 53rd. SOLID REP as the district voted 52/47 for McCain.
AD-54 (Hintz-D): Hintz’s district moves to the north. He is still likely to win reelection as he has a 61/38 Obama district. SOLID DEM.
SENATE DISTRICT 19 (Ellis-R):
Ells’s new SD-19 voted 54/45 for Obama, and is still a PROBABLE REP in 2012 if he choses to run. Probably a tossup if he doesn't.
AD-55 (Kaufert-R): Kaufert loses Menasha but picks up part of Appleton. 56/42 Obama, TOSSUP in 2012.
AD-56 (Litjens-R): 52/47 McCain. SOLID REP.
AD-57 (OPEN): 58/40 Obama. Penny Bernard Shaber is a block outside of this district. PROBABLE DEM in 2012.
SENATE DISTRICT 20 (Grothman-R):
This is a 65/34 McCain area. This district changes to include all of Washington Co. and parts of most surrounding counties. SOLID REP in 2012.
AD-58 (Strachota-R): West Bend is the anchor of this district. 62/36 McCain. SOLID REP
AD-59 (LeMahieu-R): Another SOLID REP district. 67/32 McCain.
AD-60 (Pridemore-R & Knodl-R): This is southern Washington and southeastern Dodge Counties. 65/34 McCain. SOLID REP.
SENATE DISTRICT 21 (Wanggaard-R):
55/44 Obama district. The district loses parts of western Racine Co., and moves northward into southern Milwaukee Co. TOSSUP in 2014.
AD-61 (Turner-D): Turner’s district shifts a little, but remains SOLID DEM. By population, a white plurality district (VAP = 56% white, 22% black, 19% Hispanic). 71/28 Obama.
AD-62 (Mason-D): Mason’s district moves a little to the northwest. SOLID DEM with Mason. 57/42 Obama.
AD-63 (OPEN): Vos’s former district loses him, but retains much of its current area. Of central and northern Racine Co. SOLID REP. Voted 57/42 for McCain.
SENATE DISTRICT 22 (Wirch-D):
This district 58/40 Obama. PROBABLE DEM.
AD-64 (Barca-D): Some adjustments to the district, but basically the same. 67/31 Obama. SOLID DEM.
AD-65 (Steinbrink-D): Minor changes. 58/40 Obama. SOLID DEM with Steinbrink.
AD-66 (Kerkmann-R): Most of rural Kenosha Co., and now the district extends into the southeastern corner of Walworth County. 49.4/49 Obama district. SOLID REP.
SENATE DISTRICT 23 (Moulton-R):
52/46 Obama. The district changes significantly with two of the three representatives being new to the 23rd. PROBABLE REP in 2014.
AD-67 (Rivard-R): Rivard fits into AD-67 from AD-75. 52/46 Obama. PROBABLE REP.
AD-68 (Bernier-R): 54/44 Obama. Close race in ’10. TOSSUP.
AD-69 (Severson-R): Now in AD-69 from AD-28, Severson should have no problem here. SOLID REP.
SENATE DISTRICT 24 (Lassa-D):
The district takes a more eastward shift, picking up part of Waupaca Co. 57/41 Obama. SOLID DEM in 2012.
AD-70 (Petersen-R): The population core of this new AD-70 is Waupaca, and is the most conservative of the assembly districts in the new SD-24. 52/47 Obama. PROBABLE REP.
AD-71 (Molepske-D): The liberal city of Stevens Point remains in the district, as is most of northern Portage Co. 64/34 Obama. SOLID DEM.
AD-72 (Krug-R & Vruwink-D): This district could do either way. Krug surprising won this seat in ’10 after being held for decades by Schneider. 56/42 Obama. PROBABLE DEM.
SENATE DISTRICT 25 (Jauch-D):
58/41 Obama. PROBABLE DEM in 2014.
AD-73 (Milroy-D): Due to population growth in the old SD-10, SD-25 must extend southward, meaning AD-73 gets narrower in order to reach northern Polk Co. The new AD-73 is 61/37 Obama, and SOLID DEM.
AD-74 (Bewley-D): AD-74 also shifts and picks up Washburn Co. PROBABLE DEM as a 60/39 Obama district.
AD-75 (Williams-R): The new AD-75 is a combination of parts of many old districts. Mary Williams from current AD-87 is the only current Representative to live here. 52/46 Obama. I’d rate this as PROBABLE REP.
SENATE DISTRICT 26 (Risser-D):
Some shifts occur to address current demographics in the Madison area. SD-26 is 80/19 Obama, so SOLID DEM in 2012.
AD-76 (Berceau-D): The district shifts to the east to include downtown Madison. 84/14 Obama. SOLID DEM.
AD-77 (Hulsey-D): Similar district, covering UW-Madison. 79/19 Obama. SOLID DEM.
AD-78 (Pocan-D & Roys-D): The east side of Madison and a band of territory on the north side of Lake Mendota are part of the new AD-78. Should Risser retire, Pocan would be the logical choice. 76/23 Obama. SOLID DEM.
SENATE DISTRICT 27 (Erpenbach-D):
SD-27 is squeezed to the west. 68/31 Obama. SOLID DEM in 2014.
AD-79 (Pope-Roberts): The district consolidates quite a bit. 70/29 Obama. SOLID DEM.
AD-80 (OPEN): Ringhand’s Evansville home moves into AD-43, so AD-80 has no incumbent. This district is SOLID DEM. 66/32 Obama.
AD-81 (Ripp): The only incumbent to live in AD-81 is Ripp from AD-47. It is doubtful that he could be elected in this new district, as it went 69/30 for Obama in ’08. SOLID DEM.
SENATE DISTRICT 28 (Lasich-R):
We are now back to Republican territory (SE Waukesha and SW Milwaukee Co.). 58/41 McCain. SOLID REP.
AD-82 (Stone-R): 52/46 McCain. District loses some of its soutern territory. SOLID REP.
AD-83 (Craig-R): 61/38 McCain. District shifts eastward. SOLID REP.
AD-84 (Kuglitsch-R): 59/40 McCain. District is mostly unchanged. SOLID REP.
SENATE DISTRICT 29 (Galloway-R):
This is my home district. It becomes more compact by picking up parts of Clark and Wood Co. along with western Marathon Co. (adding Suder’s new district). TOSSUP in 2014. 53/45 Obama.
AD-85 (Seidel-D): Donna’s district is much more compact, consisting of Democratic Wausau but picking up conservative Rib Mountain. 55/43 Obama. PROBABLE DEM.
AD-86 (Petrowski-R): The district has a westward shift, which would be in Petrowski’s favor. It includes southern and parts of western Marathon Co. I still have the “pleasure” of not being represented by Jerry in this plan. 53/46 Obama. SOLID REP with Petrowski running.
AD-87 (Suder-R): Suder’s new district is a little more liberal than his old AD-69 and even more liberal than AD-86! He picks up Marshfield (the most conservative of the four big cities in the “Tri-County” area). SOLID REP with Suder running.
SENATE DISTRICT 30 (Hansen-D):
District the same general shape. Tough area as he is one of the 3 Brown County incumbents. 57/42 Obama. PROBABLE DEM in 2012.
AD-88 (Klenke-R): The district shifts a little to the east. PROBABLE DEM. 60/39 Obama.
AD-89 (Nygren-R): Some territory changes hands in Oconto and Marinette Co. 52/46 Obama, but SOLID REP in 2012.
AD-90 (VanRoy-R): Mostly the same district. 59/40 Obama, but VanRoy is a longterm legislator who can easily be reelected. PROBABLE REP.
SENATE DISTRICT 31 (Vinehout-D):
There are some population shifts here, with the district picking up all of urban Eau Claire Co. 60/39 Obama. If Vinehout could hold on in 2010, she can easily win in 2014. In watching the budget debate last week, she is a very eloquent and populist speaker. SOLID DEM.
AD-91 (Danou-D): SOLID DEM Rural district, but picks up the western part of Eau Claire Co. 60/39 Obama. SOLID DEM.
AD-92 (Radcliffe-D): Radcliffe’s territory shifts northward, picking up Neillsville and the eastern Eau Claire metro area. PROBABLE DEM. 57/42 Obama.
AD-93 (Petryk-R): This area becomes much more urban, picking up the central section of Eau Claire. 62/36 Obama. SOLID DEM.
SENATE DISTRICT 32 (Kapanke-R.. or Shilling-D):
The base of SD-32 is LaCrosse Co. Vernon Co. shifts into SD-17, so all of Monroe, and parts of Jackson and Juneau Co. get added to SD-32. 59/40 Obama. PROBABLE DEM in 2012 (solid dem if Shilling wins the recall this summer).
AD-94 (Doyle-D): AD-94 shifts to include all of northern LaCrosse Co. including parts of the city of LaCrosse and one town in Jackson Co. 57/42 Obama. PROBABLE DEM.
AD-95 (Shilling-D): The southern part of LaCrosse Co. 65/33 Obama. SOLID DEM.
AD-96 (OPEN): 53/46 Obama. If Ed Thompson still lives here… maybe he could win this one? TOSSUP.
SENATE DISTRICT 33 (Zipperer-R):
62/37 McCain. SOLID REP in 2014 or forever.
AD-97 (Kramer-R): The district includes the southern sections of Waukesha. 55/44 McCain. SOLID REP.
AD-98 (Farrow-R): Farrow’s district shifts northeastward. Still, SOLID REP. 64/35 McCain.
AD-99 (Kapenga-R & Kleefisch-R): About the only area left from the old 99th is Kapenga’s home. 65/34 McCain. SOLID REP.
SUMMARY:
This map has no chances of moving forward, but if it were to, these are the results I'd predict:
STATE SENATE (IF all were to be elected in 2012):
10 SOLID DEM: 3, 4, 6, 7, 15, 16, 24, 26, 27, 31
5 PROBABLE DEM: 12, 22, 25, 30, 32
6 TOSSUPS: 1, 8, 14, 17, 21, 29
8 PROBABLY REP: 2, 5, 9, 10, 13, 18, 19, 23
4 SOLID REP: 11, 20, 28, 33
STATE ASSEMBLY (ALL seats up in 2012):
29 SOLID DEM: 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 16, 17, 19, 22, 42, 43, 46, 48, 54, 61, 62, 64, 65, 71, 73, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 91, 93, 95
16 PROBABLE DEM: 3, 7, 13, 20, 37, 40, 44, 45, 47, 57, 72, 74, 85, 88, 92, 94
14 TOSSUP: 1, 4, 15, 21, 23, 26, 28, 35, 49, 50, 51, 55, 68, 96
1 RIGHT-LEANING INDEPENDENT: 25
8 PROBABLE REP: 2, 29, 36, 39, 67, 70, 75, 90
31 SOLID REP: 5, 6, 14, 18, 24, 27, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 38, 41, 52, 53, 56, 58, 59, 60, 63, 66, 69, 82, 83, 84, 86, 87, 89, 97, 98, 99
And lastly, thanks for Dave's Redistricting Tool. It is awesome!