What is basically CBO's annual report on Social Security was released today. The full PDF is here: CBO’s 2011 Long-Term Projections for Social Security: while an HTML summary with links is here
The numbers are marginally improved over last year with the 75 year actuarial gap under the Extended Baseline (i.e. Current Law) Scenario down from 1.63% of payroll to 1.58% compared to the Social Security Trustees most recent estimate of 2.22%. (This gap between CBO and SSA has been typical for years and shows what minor changes in methodology can do.) Per CBO the DI Trust Fund will move to exhaustion in 2017 while the OAS Trust Fund will remain solvent to 2040. If as is typical these are reported on a combined basis the date of exhaustion for OASDI is 2038, again slightly more optimistic than the Trustees'.
The Report is well worth reading not least because the Introduction gives a very fine summary of the program and its finances, just reading it will put most commenters ahead of the game.
I may update this post as I finish digesting the material, right now I have only snacked on it and need to get to the meat. Meanwhile bon appetit!