Acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D)
Public Policy Polling (PDF). 9/1-4. Likely voters. (5/11-12 results):
Earl Ray Tomblin (D-inc): 46 (45)
Bill Maloney (R): 40 (30)
Undecided: 14 (25)
(MoE: ±3.7%)
When you put PPP's newest numbers alongside the trendlines, you can see exactly what's happening: Acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin is just sitting there in the mid-40s, while Bill Maloney continues his climb. (In fact, he was at just 23 percent in PPP's April poll.) Tom Jensen explains:
In quite an unusual twist for a race that's become much more competitive, Tomblin is as popular as ever. 50% of voters approve of him to only 25% who disapprove. That makes him one of the best liked Governors in the country and that spread is basically identical to the 49/24 one he had when he enjoyed a 33 point advantage over Maloney.
The reason the race has gotten so much closer is that as voters get to know Maloney better they're really liking him. In May Maloney was known to only 47% of voters in the state and they basically split evenly in their assessments of him, 23% rating him favorably and 24% unfavorably. Now that name recognition has shot up to 72% and folks are mostly reacting positively to him, 43% with a favorable opinion and 29% with an unfavorable one.
The key to Maloney's surge is that he's been able to really get Republican voters lined up behind him in a way they weren't before. Tomblin has much better than average approval numbers across party lines, 29% approving to just 42% disapproving. Because of that on our last poll he was holding Maloney to only a 43 point lead among GOP voters, 60-17. But as the party base has become more familiar with Maloney they've unified behind him and he now has a 65 point lead within the Republicans ranks, 76-11. There are still a lot of GOP partisans who don't have a problem with Tomblin, but they're not voting for him because they like Maloney better.
One thing to note is that this poll skews old. Even with what I assume is some downward weighting, the 65+ segment makes up 29 percent of this survey's sample. By contrast, seniors were 19 percent of the electorate in 2010 and 14 percent in 2008. That's good news for Tomblin, since it's the one group he trails with (45-42). Since this is a weird October special election, predicting turnout is extra-tricky, but I'd be surprised if older voters turn out at a 50 percent greater rate than they did just a year ago.
Maloney has just a month to find his way to 50%+1, and I'd say Tomblin still has a narrow advantage. Still, this race is looking pretty competitive.