"To everything, turn, turn, turn.
There is a season, turn, turn, turn.
And a time to every purpose under heaven.
A time to be born, a time to die.
A time to plant, a time to reap.
...
A time to cast away stones.
A time to gather stones together.
...
A time of love, a time of hate.
A time of war, a time of peace.
...
A time to gain, a time to lose.
A time to rend, a time to sow.
A time for love, a time for hate.
A time for peace, I swear it's not too late."
Words from Ecclesiastes, adaptation by Pete Seeger
What Is Phenology?
Phenology is derived from the Greek word phaino, meaning to show or appear. Phenology refers to recurring plant and animal life cycle stages, such as leafing and flowering, maturation of agricultural plants, emergence of insects, and migration of birds.
[...] the study of these recurring plant and animal life cycle stages, especially their timing and relationships with weather and climate.
Why Is It Important?
Phenology, put another way, is simply Nature's Calendar ...
Phenology -- Why Is It Important?
Phenology, put another way, is simply Nature's Calendar -- when the cherry trees bloom, the robin builds its nest, and the leaves turn color in the fall. This schedule is critical for plants and animals, and people too. When a caterpillar emerges, it needs developing leaves to eat. When a chick hatches, it needs caterpillars and other food to eat. [...]
A time to be born ... a time to die.
A time to gather Facts together ...
Phenology is one of those Scientific Facts, that can be measured, that provides clear evidence that Climate Change is occurring; that Climate Change is real.
It is but one, of over 24 such Indicator Facts, that have been recently measured, summed, and quantified ...
Phenology [Nature's Calendar] is a -- A National Indicator
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has identified a set of 24 important indicators that describe trends related to the causes and effects of climate change; Phenology indicators include a widely tested index of leafing and blooming dates, observations of changes in the length of the growing season, and shifts in plant hardiness zones.
EPA -- Climate Change -- Our Official Government Site
Climate Change Indicators in the United States. REPORT (pdf 13 MB)
US Environmental Protection Agency, 2010.
Over the last several decades, evidence of human influences on climate change has become increasingly clear and compelling. There is indisputable evidence that human activities such as electricity production and transportation are adding to the concentrations of greenhouse gases that are already naturally present in the atmosphere. These heat-trapping gases are now at record-high levels in the atmosphere compared with the recent and distant past.
Warming of the climate system is well documented, evident from increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. The buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is very likely the cause of most of the recent observed increase in average temperatures, and contributes to other climate changes.[1]
[...]
About This Report
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has published this report, Climate Change Indicators in the United States, to help readers interpret a set of important indicators to better understand climate change. The report presents 24 indicators, each describing trends in some way related to the causes and effects of climate change. The indicators focus primarily on the United States, but in some cases global trends are presented in order to provide context or a basis for comparison.
[...]
The report also includes a summary of major findings associated with each indicator (see Summary of Key Findings on p. 4)
[...]
EPA selected the 24 indicators presented in this report from a broader set of 110 indicators, many of which were identified at an expert workshop (November 30 to December 1, 2004) on climate change indicators convened by the National Academy of Sciences and funded by EPA.
The indicators in this report were chosen using a set of screening criteria that considered usefulness, objectivity, data quality, transparency, ability to show a meaningful trend, and relevance to climate change.
All of the indicators selected for this report are based on data that have been collected and compiled by following rigorous protocols that are widely accepted by the scientific community. Various government agencies, academic institutions, and other organizations collected the data.
[...]
[pg 4]
Summary of Key Findings
The indicators in this report present clear evidence that the composition of the atmosphere is being altered as a result of human activities and that the climate is changing. They also illustrate a number of effects on society and ecosystems related to these changes.
Greenhouse Gases
- Greenhouse Gas Emissions. In the United States, greenhouse gas emissions caused by human activities increased by 14 percent from 1990 to 2008. Carbon dioxide accounts for most of the nation’s emissions and most of this increase. Electricity generation is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States, followed by transportation. Emissions per person have remained about the same since 1990.
- Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Worldwide, emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities increased by 26 percent from 1990 to 2005. Emissions of carbon dioxide, which account for nearly three-fourths of the total, increased by 31 percent over this period. Like in the United States, the majority of the world’s emissions are associated with energy use.
- Atmospheric Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases. Concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have risen substantially since the beginning of the industrial era. Almost all of this increase is attributable to human activities. Historical measurements show that the current levels of many greenhouse gases are higher than any seen in thousands of years, even after accounting for natural fluctuations.
- Climate Forcing. Climate or "radiative" forcing is a way to measure how substances such as greenhouse gases affect the amount of energy that is absorbed by the atmosphere. An increase in radiative forcing leads to warming while a decrease in forcing produces cooling. From 1990 to 2008, the radiative forcing of all the greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere increased by about 26 percent. The rise in carbon dioxide concentrations accounts for approximately 80 percent of this increase
Weather and Climate
- U.S. and Global Temperature. Average temperatures have risen across the lower 48 states since 1901, with an increased rate of warming over the past 30 years. Seven of the top 10 warmest years on record for the lower 48 states have occurred since 1990, and the last 10 five-year periods have been the warmest five-year periods on record. Average global temperatures show a similar trend, and 2000–2009 was the warmest decade on record worldwide. Within the United States, parts of the North, the West, and Alaska have seen temperatures increase the most.
- Heat Waves. The frequency of heat waves in the United States decreased in the 1960s and 1970s, but has risen steadily since then. The percentage of the United States experiencing heat waves has also increased. The most severe heat waves in U.S. history remain those that occurred during the "Dust Bowl" in the 1930s, although average temperatures have increased since then.
- Drought. Over the period from 2001 through 2009, roughly 30 to 60 percent of the U.S. land area experienced drought conditions at any given time. However, the data for this indicator have not been collected for long enough to determine whether droughts are increasing or decreasing over time.
- U.S. and Global Precipitation. Average precipitation has increased in the United States and worldwide. Since 1901, precipitation has increased at an average rate of more than 6 percent per century in the lower 48 states and nearly 2 percent per century worldwide. However, shifting weather patterns have caused certain areas, such as Hawaii and parts of the Southwest, to experience less precipitation than they used to.
- Heavy Precipitation. In recent years, a higher percentage of precipitation in the United States has come in the form of intense single-day events. Eight of the top 10 years for extreme one-day precipitation events have occurred since 1990. The occurrence of abnormally high annual precipitation totals has also increased.
- Tropical Cyclone Intensity. The intensity of tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico did not exhibit a strong long‑term trend for much of the 20th century, but has risen noticeably over the past 20 years. Six of the 10 most active hurricane seasons have occurred since the mid-1990s. This increase is closely related to variations in sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic.
Oceans
- Ocean Heat. Several studies have shown that the amount of heat stored in the ocean has increased substantially since the 1950s. Ocean heat content not only determines sea surface temperature, but it also affects sea level and currents.
- Sea Surface Temperature. The surface temperature of the world’s oceans increased over the 20th century. Even with some year-to-year variation, the overall increase is statistically significant, and sea surface temperatures have been higher during the past three decades than at any other time since large-scale measurement began in the late 1800s.
- Sea Level. When averaged over all the world’s oceans, sea level has increased at a rate of roughly six-tenths of an inch per decade since 1870. The rate of increase has accelerated in recent years to more than an inch per decade. Changes in sea level relative to the height of the land vary widely because the land itself moves. Along the U.S. coastline, sea level has risen the most relative to the land along the Mid-Atlantic coast and parts of the Gulf Coast. Sea level has decreased relative to the land in parts of Alaska and the Northwest.
- Ocean Acidity. The ocean has become more acidic over the past 20 years, and studies suggest that the ocean is substantially more acidic now than it was a few centuries ago. Rising acidity is associated with increased levels of carbon dioxide dissolved in the water. Changes in acidity can affect sensitive organisms such as corals.
Snow and Ice
- Arctic Sea Ice. Part of the Arctic Ocean stays frozen year-round. The area covered by ice is typically smallest in September, after the summer melting season. September 2007 had the least ice of any year on record, followed by 2008 and 2009. The extent of Arctic sea ice in 2009 was 24 percent below the 1979 to 2000 historical average.
- Glaciers. Glaciers in the United States and around the world have generally shrunk since the 1960s, and the rate at which glaciers are melting appears to have accelerated over the last decade. Overall, glaciers worldwide have lost more than 2,000 cubic miles of water since 1960, which has contributed to the observed rise in sea level.
- Lake Ice. Lakes in the northern United States generally appear to be freezing later and thawing earlier than they did in the 1800s and early 1900s. The length of time that lakes stay frozen has decreased at an average rate of one to two days per decade.
- Snow Cover. The portion of North America covered by snow has generally decreased since 1972, although there has been much year-to-year variability. Snow covered an average of 3.18 million square miles of North America during the years 2000 to 2008, compared with 3.43 million square miles during the 1970s.
- Snowpack. Between 1950 and 2000, the depth of snow on the ground in early spring decreased at most measurement sites in the western United States and Canada. Spring snowpack declined by more than 75 percent in some areas, but increased in a few others.
Society and Ecosystems
- Heat-Related Deaths. Over the past three decades, more than 6,000 deaths across the United States were caused by heat-related illness such as heat stroke. However, considerable year-to-year variability makes it difficult to determine long-term trends.
- Length of Growing Season. The average length of the growing season in the lower 48 states has increased by about two weeks since the beginning of the 20th century. A particularly large and steady increase has occurred over the last 30 years. The observed changes reflect earlier spring warming as well as later arrival of fall frosts. The length of the growing season has increased more rapidly in the West than in the East.
- Plant Hardiness Zones. Winter low temperatures are a major factor in determining which plants can survive in a particular area. Plant hardiness zones have shifted noticeably northward since 1990, reflecting higher winter temperatures in most parts of the country. Large portions of several states have warmed by at least one hardiness zone.
- Leaf and Bloom Dates. Leaf growth and flower blooms are examples of natural events whose timing can be influenced by climate change. Observations of lilacs and honeysuckles in the lower 48 states suggest that leaf growth is now occurring a few days earlier than it did in the early 1900s. Lilacs and honeysuckles are also blooming slightly earlier than in the past, but it is difficult to determine whether this change is statistically meaningful.
- Bird Wintering Ranges. Some birds shift their range or alter their migration habits to adapt to changes in temperature or other environmental conditions. Long-term studies have found that bird species in North America have shifted their wintering grounds northward by an average of 35 miles since 1966, with a few species shifting by several hundred miles. On average, bird species have also moved their wintering grounds farther from the coast, consistent with rising inland temperatures.
========== [The Scientists bearing witness to this Season of Human Activity] ==========
Scientists across five federal agencies were instrumental in providing indicator data and/or reviewing the indicator descriptions.
In particular, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center provided key assistance for this report’s chapter on weather and climate. EPA also received essential support for this report from scientists at a number of universities, nongovernmental organizations, and international institutions.
Data Providers and Indicator Reviewers -- U.S. Federal Agencies
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Environmental Protection Agency
EPA -- Office of Air and Radiation
EPA -- Office of Water
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NOAA -- Climate Prediction Center
NOAA -- Earth Systems Research Laboratory
NOAA -- National Climatic Data Center
NOAA -- National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service
NOAA -- National Oceanographic Data Center
NOAA -- National Ocean Service
NOAA -- Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory
National Snow and Ice Data Center
U.S. Geological Survey
Data Providers and Indicator Reviewers -- Universities, Nongovernmental Organizations, and International Institutions
Arbor Day Foundation
Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences
Desert Research Institute
Japan Agency for Marine -- Earth Science and Technology
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
National Audubon Society
Rutgers University
University of Colorado -- Boulder
University of Southampton
University of Washington
University of Wisconsin -- Madison
---------
How to Obtain Copies of the report
You can electronically download this document from EPA’s Climate Indicators Site at
www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html. (Indicator Report pdf -- 13 MB)
To request free copies of this report, call the National Service Center
for Environmental Publications (NSCEP) at 1-800-490-9198.
For Further Information: please e-mail climateindicators@epa.gov or call the EPA Climate Change Division hotline at 202-343-9990.
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"To everything, turn, turn, turn.
There is a season, turn, turn, turn.
And a time to every purpose under heaven."
much larger
The Butterfly Nebula -- another one of "Nature's Calendars" ...
one not tied to politics at all.
