Another year ends, but America's longest war continues. As it will, indefinitely. A couple weeks ago, we got this incomprehensible report:
President Obama said Thursday that "we are on track to achieve our goals" in the Afghan war and to "start reducing our forces next July."
Really? Of course, we already knew that the administration was all but ignoring the bleak conclusion of the National Intelligence Estimates. We also know that the administration's cautious optimism is undermining its credibility.
In late November, the New York Times had this disturbing news:
But over the last two years the Taliban have steadily staged a resurgence in Kunduz, where they now threaten a vital NATO supply line and employ more sophisticated tactics. In November, residents listened to air raids by NATO forces for five consecutive nights, the first heavy fighting since the Taliban were overthrown eight years ago.
The turnabout vividly demonstrates how security has broken down even in unexpected parts of Afghanistan. It also points to the hard choices facing American, NATO and Afghan officials even if President Obama decides to send more soldiers to Afghanistan, as he is expected to announce next week.
Even under the most generous deployments now under consideration, relatively few additional troops are expected in the north; most will be directed to the heartland of the Taliban resistance in the south and east.
The North, of course, once was the center of Afghan resistance to the Taliban. But as the war rages in the south, the insurgents just relocate. It's not complicated. And the attempts to depict the continuing failed war as somehow becoming a success are transparent. As Meteor Blades linked, security is worsening in much of Afghanistan, as insurgents create new alliances on both sides of the mythical Durand Line, and more and more Afghans support attacks on U.S. troops. So with polls in this country showing increasing opposition to what is now Obama's War, the administration is trying to change the perception-- an effort that simply doesn't accord with reality:
Citing evidence that Taliban insurgents have expanded their reach across Afghanistan, aid groups and security analysts in the country are challenging as misleading the Obama administration's recent claim that insurgents now control less territory than they did a year ago.
"Absolutely, without any reservation, it is our opinion that the situation is a lot more insecure this year than it was last year," said Nic Lee, the director of the Afghanistan NGO Safety Office, an independent organization that analyzes security dangers for aid groups.
How bad is it?
Insurgent attacks have jumped at least 66 percent this year, according to the Afghanistan NGO Safety Office.
But compounding the sheer absurdity of the administration's claim was this astonishing line from the president himself:
Now, our review confirms, however, that for these security gains to be sustained over time, there is an urgent need for political and economic progress in Afghanistan.
For not only are the claimed gains at best dubious, but the very idea of political progress would be laughable if it weren't so devastatingly tragic. Perhaps the president needs a reminder:
- Soon after taking office, President Obama ordered more troops to Afghanistan. In an interview, he said he thought the war was still winnable.
- In August, 2009, President Obama warned Karzai on fraud, corruption and ties to militias.
- In September, President Obama ordered more combat troops to Afghanistan, swapping them for non-combat troops, who would then be replaced by private contractors.
- In October, Karzai stole his national election.
- In November, Karzai's stolen election was made official. At which point, President Obama congratulated him. And again warned him to tackle corruption. At the end of the month, Obama ordered even more troops to Afghanistan.
- In March of this year, Karzai welcomed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian "President." Perhaps they shared a good laugh about stealing elections. Later that month, on his own visit to Afghanistan, President Obama again warned Karzai, this time on graft.
- In April, Karzai angered the White House by taking control of his nation's elections fraud watchdog. He also reportedly threatened to join the Taliban. For his part, President Obama was said to be fed up with Karzai's blaming the U.S. for his problems. That same month, President Obama was turning up the heat on Iran's Ahmadinejad, Karzai's new friend.
- In May, both the Congressional Research Service and the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction gave no reason to think things will improve.
- By June, Karzai was reported to have lost faith in the U.S. war strategy. By what had been one of the two top officials Western experts considered key reformers. Until Karzai sacked them.
- A month later came confirmation, as Karzai was resisting U.S. military strategy.
- In August, the war effort was deteriorating even further, and Defense Secretary Robert Gates was admitting that the announced 2011 drawdown of U.S. troops would be limited.
- And a month after that, the president again was talking about trying to help Karzai form a stable government. As if there ever had been even a hint of a shred of a shard of a hope that such ever had been possible, or even was intended by Karzai himself.
- October brought yet more reports that the one thing going well in Afghanistan is the war profiteering.
- November saw open mention of the year 2014, but as Karzai turned away from the West, the president managed to keep a straight face while saying:
If we’re ponying up billions of dollars to ensure that President Karzai can continue to build and develop his country, then he’s got to also pay attention to our concerns as well.
And so the year came to a close. Another year ending with the war's end not even on any discernible horizon. And the president still maintaining that straight face while telling us:
Now, our review confirms, however, that for these security gains to be sustained over time, there is an urgent need for political and economic progress in Afghanistan.
As if he honestly believes political progress is possible. As if continually warning and admonishing a corrupt government that continually ignores the warnings and admonishments somehow will result in something other than embarrassment and failure. But this is, after all, the same president who told us he takes John Boehner at his word not to shut down the government over the debt ceiling. So, who knows? For his part, Karzai now openly misses what he remembers as the golden era of Bush.
To be continued.
