Well obviously he wants to win, but in winning ideally he would like it to pan out like this
Dean hopes for:
- - Dean
- - Kerry
- - Gephardt
- - Edwards
- - Lieberman
- - Clark
Dean needs a win to knock out Gephardt and maintain the Dean inevitability meme. Back to back wins in Iowa and New Hampshire set him up well.
In addition a second place finish for Kerry surely eliminates Gephardt and Kerry rides into New Hampshire with momentum that might derail Clark's prospects of finishing second there.
If Kerry finishes second in both Iowa and New Hampshire it sets up a Dean vs Kerry matchup which almost guarantees the better funded Dean the nomination.
Clark's decision to leave Iowa doesn't hurt him if he finishes second in New Hampshire, but if he finishes 5th or 6th in Iowa with a low (say 3-4%) level of support--he slips out of media notice in the week preceding New Hampshire. If Kerry finishes second in Iowa, he can play the comeback role and with media attention crawl back past Clark in NH.
However, if Iowa goes Dean-Gephardt-Kerry or Gephardt-Dean-Kerry then Kerry is likely done after falling to Clark for 2nd place in NH.
The things to watch in Iowa: Will Dean or Gephardt win? If Dean wins will it be Gephardt or Kerry in 2nd? Will Edwards finish strong enough to get delegates and be a factor coming out of Iowa? Will Clark finish 4th, 5th or 6th? It might matter.