Stumbled across this on a financial blog:
http://www.alt-market.com/...
Breaking Points: Recognizing The Signs Of Painful Cultural Shift
by Brandon Smith
on Alt-market.com
I don't agree completely with some of his points and examples but the overall essay is food for thought. Excerpts are included but I recommend you read the ful essay at the link provided.
Through the ages, nations and cultures of spectacular proportion and prominence have risen to prosperity, and fallen to chaos, on very particular and fundamental principles. In some cases, these great and terrible declines have taken centuries to culminate (as was the story of the Roman Empire), and only a few years in others (the Soviet Union comes to mind). In every example of societal destabilization, however, there were many signs of danger long before the final plunge; some unique to each particular culture, and some common to all. One of the most enduring and frightening similarities between crumbling nations is an overwhelming belief amongst the people that they have somehow “advanced” beyond the need for concern. Each self-destructing society presumed itself invincible. Each country thought itself the pinnacle of human potential, only to discover yet again that in abandoning or subverting the principles of freedom, and the bedrock pillars of conscience, reason, and wisdom, they had become merely another footnote in a long marathon of footnotes.
Ultimately, the vast and sordid history of collapse could be summarized simply as a series of breaking points; moments at which opposing ideals and forces hyperextend the prevailing mechanics of a system, changing it entirely.
.........
I bring up these opposing paradigms not to spark another endless debate over the merits of communism versus capitalism, but to highlight a growing potential for a new brand of revolution in modern day America, now cutting through the surface, which may very well culminate in one of the two finales described above. More perhaps than any other time memorable, centralist and statist visions are today clashing with individualist and Constitutionalist pleadings for sanity. The air grows heavy and ripe for ignition. More even than any economic indicator, social indicators point in the direction of conflict and widespread malfunction. The question of “if” in terms of citizen dissent and the inevitable lashing response of government is no longer asked. Now, the question of “when” has risen to the surface.
To predict the exact timing of a breaking point is impossible, but there are signals to watch for; social and political attitudes to monitor and examine. After analyzing the shifts of multiple nations and cultures over thousands of years of human record, a pattern does, indeed, emerge. Similar developments in our times should not be taken lightly…
...........
1) The Rise Of Moral Relativism - Inherent conscience is a vital artery to a healthy society........
2) The Displacement Of Cultural Subsections - A society that maintains healthy appearances by purposely displacing and marginalizing certain belief systems or political stances is by its very nature self-destructive.........
3) Distraction Over Substance -Distracted people are uncaring people. A nation distracted by its own immediate desires over the concerns of the future is completely incapable of acting in its own best interest. ........
4) When Law Becomes Tyranny - Law, at least as far as the fundamentals are concerned, is designed to protect citizens as well as authorities .........At its worst, law is no longer used as a tool for protecting the public from error and malice, and is instead used as a tool for enslavement.......
5) Force Over Reason -Force is used only in two instances within a domestic political environment; when a controlling entity seeks to acquire or maintain power after fear and disinformation have failed, and when a rebellious public seeks to undo the wrongs done and reason has gone ignored. ......
6) False Paradigms And Mistaken Enemies - A country near bedlam is usually filled with people seeking not just answers, but someone, anyone, to blame. ........ A frantic nation is an easily manipulated nation. ............
7) Desperation And Loss Of Will - ........when despair results in the handing over of personal liberty for the sake of so called “security”, an avalanche of regret and wild compensation in the form of moral relativism results. ...........No obstacle is insurmountable. No enemy unbeatable. But, when that will is lost, so too is everything else.
The concentration and frequency of the above elements can easily reveal the point at which a country is in respect to collapse. America now has many of these diseases at one stage or another, and in certain ways, has surpassed historic examples ............
The author makes a good point that we are at one of these points in history... how will it go? what direction will it take?
I will make my own points -
The Fall of Rome - and a few similar events - was a long and drawn out affair. An empire collapsed from within - political failures leading to economic ones. There was never a real rising up against the elites by the populace but fighte among the elites for power and outside forces eventually bring the Empire to an end. We exhibit some similarities in the collapse of our political and economic systems - loss of real representation, use of force to gain what trade cannot, ever increasing national debt and debasement of money, ever worsening economic conditions for the masses.....but we are not seeing a war among the elites for control. Rome collapsed, there was not a real revolution where the masses rose up against the elites.
The American Revolution was not an economic one - it was about political power and whether it would be held locally or exerted from afar.
The French Revolution was in part political - a rising up against the existing elites BUT it was spurred by economic conditions - people were starving. There was violence against the existing regime during its overthrow, followed by a 'cannibalistic' fight among the revolutionaries to determine who would prevail.
The Russian Revolution was multi stage - the fall of the czar, then the rise of the Bolsheviks. with a period of Civil War. Economics AND politics spurred this revolution... the existing regime was undone by a war that was draining the nation; people were hungry and felt exploited in fighting a war they had no stake in. But after the existing regime was overthrown, there was a protracted fight to determine which political group and philosophy would prevail - first between the Whites and reds and then among the 'Reds' themselves. Real violence against the previous regime occurred not when they were first removed but when the Bolsheviks challenged what was seen to be an ineffective replacement for the Czar in the Kerensky government.
In the latter two cases the populace was hungry and desperate - the existing elites were overthrown BUT violence continued among the revolutionaries escalating in tenor. In the end you had autocratic regimes - Napoleon in France and Lenin - then Stalin in Russia.
I postulate that the economic conditions in the latter two examples produced a more desperate populace - who were willing to use violence on a more widespread level to attain their goals and then as 'revenge' on their former 'masters' - but the violence continued among the revolutionaries themselves - ending only when one strong autocratic leader came to the fore. When people feel that existing moral and ethical limits have been abandoned, that the rule of law no longer exists, when people become more and more desperate, you have a 'less restrained' and more violent outcome.
The American Revolution was more a revolt against distant power - though you had elements within the colonies fighting for independence and others supporting British rule. You did NOT have real economic hardship - nor did you have real economic disparities. In fact you had all levels of society represented on BOTH sides - with a lare number of 'revolutionaries' being at the top of the local power and economic pyramid. This was more a fight the local colonial 'elites' to move governing power away from a distant crown than a revolt by colonials against all power and privilege. Though tere wer instances of violence, retribution against the 'losers' was generally limited to exile and confiscation of property. The leaders of this revolution prided themselves on the rule of law - they had based their revolution on it.
Sadly our Republic has - as our founding fathers feared it might - degenerated into a government representing the elites, with a greater and greater concentration of power and wealth in fewer hands.
We are now seeing protests against this - which can be resolved two ways:
1) through changes in the current system, within the current system
or, failing 1) -
2) violent attempts at change which will succeed or fail.
Sadly, if 2) occurs, the end result may not be the real change desired by the people seeking it.
The attempts at change could fail if the elites resort to brute force. They cannot prevail based on numbers. However if the elites prevail, this will come at great cost to society and result in fundamental changes in our governance. This would result in the elites formalizing their control and maybe even dropping the pretense of representative government.
The existing order could be overthrown violently with the masses prevailing through sheer numbers (if the military and police side - even if only partially - with them) but the end result will not be an orderly replacement of the old with a new system but a protracted battle to determine what system to adopt and who will rule in it.
When spurred by economic forces, revolutions seem to end badly in protracted spasms of violence brought to an end only when one autocratic leader prevails.
It would be best if we take the first path - and if the existing powers and interests recognize this - for they will NOT prevail if change occurs (and I do believe change is inevitable). In the second alternative, they are far more likely to face direct and violent retribution although in the long run, EVERYBODY loses.
The longer the people are ignored, the worse conditions become and the greater the odds of the second path.
We got lucky with FDR - the real possibility of a revolution by the hungry and jobless was diffused. Sadly we seem to lack such leadership today - and our nation is far weaker on a fundamental economic level.