This should help you to better get what's going on when the results come in in the West Virginia Gubernatorial Election tomorrow. This shows how the counties lean relative to the state of West Virginia, ie in a county that's D+2 a Democrat can be expected to win around 52-48 in a tied vote.
The elections used to analyse this were Senate 2008, Attorney General 2008, Agricultural Commissioner 2008, Senate 2010, or in other words, all non-national races where the Republican cracked 35%. Have fun.
EDIT: I abbreviated some of the column headers to fit in two more-- AG 2008 means Attorney General Race 2008, AC 2008 refers to the Agricultural Commissioner race.
The "Maloney-baseline" and "McCain-baseline" are what the Republican needs in every county to win statewide. The Maloney numbers are based on the average of the four statewide races, the McCain numbers are based on the 2008 Presidential Election and only that. It's two party performance, so just convert the multi-party numbers you'll find when the election results come in to two party with this formula.
Republican2way:=Republican/(Republican+Democratic)
For the Democratic numbers, obviously, subtract the GOP number from 100.
County |
Average |
Max |
Min |
Sen2008 |
AG 2008 |
AC 2008 |
Sen 2010 |
Maloney Baseline |
McCain Baseline |
Barbour |
R+2 |
D+1 |
R+5 |
R+3 |
D+0 |
R+5 |
D+1 |
51.8% |
53.7% |
Berkeley |
R+7 |
R+3 |
R+10 |
R+9 |
R+3 |
R+6 |
R+10 |
56.9% |
49.9% |
Boone |
D+16 |
D+20 |
D+10 |
D+10 |
D+18 |
D+20 |
D+14 |
34.3% |
37.8% |
Braxton |
D+12 |
D+15 |
D+10 |
D+10 |
D+12 |
D+15 |
D+10 |
38.3% |
42.6% |
Brooke |
D+6 |
D+12 |
D+1 |
D+12 |
D+5 |
D+1 |
D+7 |
44% |
44.6% |
Cabell |
D+1 |
D+4 |
R+3 |
R+0 |
R+3 |
D+2 |
D+4 |
49.4% |
48.5% |
Calhoun |
D+1 |
D+5 |
R+2 |
R+2 |
D+5 |
D+3 |
R+1 |
48.6% |
51.2% |
Clay |
D+8 |
D+12 |
D+5 |
D+8 |
D+6 |
D+12 |
D+5 |
42.1% |
48.6% |
Doddridge |
R+19 |
R+14 |
R+25 |
R+25 |
R+14 |
R+19 |
R+19 |
69.2% |
68.4% |
Fayette |
D+8 |
D+10 |
D+6 |
D+6 |
D+10 |
D+10 |
D+7 |
41.7% |
44.7% |
Gilmer |
D+4 |
D+8 |
R+1 |
R+1 |
D+8 |
D+7 |
D+2 |
45.8% |
52.3% |
Grant |
R+21 |
R+12 |
R+28 |
R+20 |
R+12 |
R+25 |
R+28 |
71.4% |
69.4% |
Greenbrier |
D+2 |
D+4 |
D+1 |
D+1 |
D+4 |
D+3 |
D+1 |
47.7% |
49.6% |
Hampshire |
R+9 |
D+1 |
R+16 |
R+10 |
D+1 |
R+16 |
R+12 |
59.5% |
57% |
Hancock |
D+3 |
D+7 |
D+2 |
D+7 |
D+3 |
D+2 |
D+2 |
46.6% |
51.1% |
Hardy |
R+7 |
D+7 |
R+21 |
R+3 |
D+7 |
R+21 |
R+11 |
56.9% |
57.3% |
Harrison |
R+3 |
D+2 |
R+5 |
R+5 |
R+4 |
R+4 |
D+2 |
52.7% |
50.1% |
Jackson |
R+0 |
D+7 |
R+4 |
R+1 |
R+3 |
D+7 |
R+4 |
50.3% |
52.8% |
Jefferson |
R+0 |
D+5 |
R+3 |
R+2 |
D+5 |
R+1 |
R+3 |
50.1% |
40.9% |
Kanawha |
D+2 |
D+6 |
R+3 |
D+3 |
R+3 |
D+6 |
D+2 |
48.2% |
43.5% |
Lewis |
R+5 |
R+2 |
R+8 |
R+8 |
R+2 |
R+7 |
R+3 |
55.4% |
60.6% |
Lincoln |
D+7 |
D+11 |
D+3 |
D+3 |
D+8 |
D+11 |
D+6 |
43% |
47.9% |
Logan |
D+14 |
D+18 |
D+7 |
D+7 |
D+18 |
D+18 |
D+16 |
35.6% |
48.8% |
Marion |
D+14 |
D+25 |
R+2 |
D+19 |
D+25 |
R+2 |
D+13 |
36.3% |
39% |
Marshall |
D+1 |
D+5 |
R+8 |
D+5 |
D+5 |
R+8 |
D+2 |
48.9% |
43.1% |
Mason |
D+8 |
D+17 |
R+2 |
D+8 |
R+2 |
D+17 |
D+8 |
42.3% |
49.7% |
McDowell |
D+14 |
D+23 |
D+7 |
D+7 |
D+8 |
D+23 |
D+18 |
36.1% |
49.9% |
Mercer |
R+2 |
D+0 |
R+4 |
R+4 |
R+3 |
D+0 |
R+4 |
52.5% |
57.3% |
Mineral |
R+9 |
R+3 |
R+15 |
R+7 |
R+3 |
R+15 |
R+11 |
59.1% |
60.3% |
Mingo |
D+14 |
D+19 |
D+9 |
D+9 |
D+19 |
D+15 |
D+14 |
35.7% |
49.5% |
Monongalia |
D+0 |
D+5 |
R+3 |
D+5 |
D+1 |
R+3 |
R+1 |
49.5% |
41.4% |
Monroe |
R+1 |
D+3 |
R+3 |
R+3 |
D+3 |
R+1 |
R+1 |
50.5% |
56.1% |
Morgan |
R+10 |
R+3 |
R+14 |
R+8 |
R+3 |
R+14 |
R+14 |
59.7% |
55.3% |
Nicholas |
D+7 |
D+9 |
D+5 |
D+8 |
D+5 |
D+9 |
D+5 |
43.3% |
45.8% |
Ohio |
R+3 |
D+7 |
R+11 |
D+7 |
R+5 |
R+11 |
R+2 |
52.8% |
48.8% |
Pendleton |
R+3 |
D+8 |
R+12 |
R+1 |
D+8 |
R+6 |
R+12 |
53% |
54.2% |
Pleasants |
R+1 |
D+2 |
R+4 |
R+4 |
R+3 |
R+0 |
D+2 |
51.1% |
54.1% |
Pocahontas |
D+3 |
D+12 |
R+1 |
R+0 |
D+12 |
D+3 |
R+1 |
46.6% |
49.8% |
Preston |
R+8 |
R+5 |
R+13 |
R+5 |
R+5 |
R+11 |
R+13 |
58.4% |
56.9% |
Putnam |
R+6 |
R+2 |
R+11 |
R+5 |
R+11 |
R+2 |
R+7 |
56.3% |
55.2% |
Raleigh |
R+4 |
R+2 |
R+5 |
R+5 |
R+5 |
R+2 |
R+3 |
53.7% |
56.5% |
Randolph |
D+2 |
D+5 |
R+5 |
D+4 |
D+2 |
R+5 |
D+5 |
48.5% |
50.5% |
Ritchie |
R+15 |
R+13 |
R+21 |
R+21 |
R+13 |
R+13 |
R+14 |
65% |
66.9% |
Roane |
D+2 |
D+3 |
D+1 |
D+3 |
D+1 |
D+3 |
D+1 |
47.9% |
47.3% |
Summers |
D+4 |
D+7 |
D+2 |
D+2 |
D+7 |
D+4 |
D+5 |
45.5% |
49.1% |
Taylor |
R+3 |
D+1 |
R+9 |
R+2 |
R+2 |
R+9 |
D+1 |
52.8% |
52.7% |
Tucker |
R+1 |
D+2 |
R+7 |
D+1 |
D+1 |
R+7 |
D+2 |
50.9% |
55.6% |
Tyler |
R+10 |
R+8 |
R+12 |
R+8 |
R+8 |
R+12 |
R+10 |
59.5% |
59.4% |
Upshur |
R+7 |
R+5 |
R+10 |
R+5 |
R+7 |
R+10 |
R+5 |
57% |
60.2% |
Wayne |
D+4 |
D+5 |
R+0 |
R+0 |
D+5 |
D+5 |
D+4 |
46.4% |
52.6% |
Webster |
D+15 |
D+19 |
D+11 |
D+12 |
D+17 |
D+19 |
D+11 |
35.2% |
40.5% |
Wetzel |
D+4 |
D+6 |
D+3 |
D+6 |
D+3 |
D+3 |
D+5 |
45.9% |
46.5% |
Wirt |
R+1 |
D+3 |
R+7 |
R+7 |
D+0 |
D+3 |
R+0 |
51.1% |
59% |
Wood |
R+6 |
R+2 |
R+11 |
R+6 |
R+11 |
R+2 |
R+4 |
56% |
57.9% |
Wyoming |
D+7 |
D+10 |
D+2 |
D+5 |
D+10 |
D+9 |
D+2 |
43.4% |
56.1% |