In view of the recent attention on a proposed Kansas US House map that was, er, interesting, here is a map showing the state's “baseline” as a court might draw it. By comparing this map to the state's eventual map, we can try to quantify the partisan advantage from control of the redistricting process. This map has one district based on Kansas City, one based on Wichita, and eastern and western “leftover” districts.
Map:
The westernmost tier of counties was cut off; obviously they are all in KS1.
The districts' PVIs are based on the 2008 presidential election. Dave's app does not have 2008 results by precinct so I totaled them up by county. For the four counties that were split, I assumed both parts voted like the county as a whole. This of course is wrong, but the numbers involved were very small and this probably had no effect on the PVI to the first decimal place.
KS1, R+23.1. Western Kansas doesn't have many Dems. The bluest county in the whole district is R+7, and that's Riley county which contains K-State.
KS2, R+7.3. The district's population centers of Topeka, Lawrence, and Leavenworth collectively have a slight Dem lean, but they are outweighed by the smaller towns and rural areas. Dems could compete here in a blue wave year but probably not in a neutral one.
KS3, R+4.3. KCK and Johnson county are almost big enough to make a district by themselves. This one would be competitive in anything but a red wave year.
KS4, R+13.1. The Wichita district has to pick up some rural counties to the east.
I would put the Dems' baseline in Kansas at about 0.5 seats: maybe a 35% chance to win KS3, 15% in KS2, and 0% in the other two. Thoughts?