SD-10 Steve Hale (D-Senatobia), Robert Jackson (D-Marks)
The 10th district is the centerpiece of this part of the map. It is currently a ConservaDem-held district, but in this incarnation, it gets drawn into an AA-majority district. As a result of this drawing, the shapes of many of the surrounding districts are dictated by this district. Sen. Hale is not likely to survive a primary against Sen. Jackson, a black Democrat. The 10th goes from 52% McCain to 68% Obama, making it a safe Dem seat.
SD-01 Chris Massey (R-Nesbit)
In this northwestern district, Tea Party-backed Sen. Massey knocked off incumbent Republican Doug Davis then ran unopposed in the general election. His district gets slightly less Republican, but at 64% McCain, it should be safe R.
SD-19 Merle Flowers (R-Shouthaven)
Sen. Flowers also ran unopposed in 2011. His district shrinks a bit due to population growth in the area. At 70% McCain, it is safe R.
The fast-growing Memphis suburbs in the northwestern corner of the state get a new Senate seat. The old 7th is a Democratic-held seat in the east-central part of the state in Lee (Tupelo), Itawamba, and Monroe counties. At 72% McCain, the new 7th will be a safe R seat and the first pickup for Republicans.
SD-04 Rita Parks (R-Corinth)
The 4th is one of the districts that is affected by the drawing of the 10th. It gets pushed west and now stretches along the northern tier of the state. The northeastern part of the state is one of the last bastions of ConservaDem territory in the state. Even though Sen. Parks knocked off incumbent Democrat Eric Powell in 2011, at 64% McCain, this district rates just a Lean R for now.
SD-05 J.P. Wilemon (D-Belmont)
This district is a fine example of the ConservaDem leanings in the northeastern part of the state. Sen. Wilemon knocked off his 2011 GOP opponent by 12 points, but this area is trending Republican. At 71% McCain, it rates Lean D.
SD-06 Nancy Collins (R-Tupelo)
Incumbent Republican Sen. Collins won by almost 50 points in 2011. With a district that gets bumped up to 77% McCain, it is Safe R.
SD-03 Nickey Browning (D-Pontotoc)
Long-term incumbent Democratic Sen. Browning is the other ConservaDem Senator in the northeast. He had a comfortable 22 point win in 2011, so even though the seat is 71% McCain, it is Likely D with Browning.
SD-09 Gray Tollison (R-Oxford)
Sen. Tollison won re-election in 2011 as a Democrat (he ended up running unopposed), then two days later promptly switched to the Republican Party. At 60% McCain, the district gets about 6 points more red. I’d rate it Likely R, although possibly not for Tollison; primary voters don’t always treat party switchers well.
SD-02 Bill Stone (D-Ashland)
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Stone easily won re-election by 40+ points in 2011. However, his district is drastically altered to accommodate the AA-majority 10th district. He picks up a lot of new Republican voters in Panola, Quitman, and Lafayette counties while losing heavily Dem areas in Marshall and Benton Counties. The district becomes 12 points more Republican, going from 49% McCain to 61% McCain. I’m not sure if Sen. Stone can survive this district. Tossup.
SD-11 Willie Lee Simmons (D-Cleveland)
The 11th is a black majority Mississippi River district. Most of the area is currently represented by Sen. Robert Jackson. However, Sen. Jackson gets drawn into the new black majority 10th district while Sen. Simmons of the current 13th is drawn into the 11th. At 79% Obama, it is quite Safe D.
SD-12 Derrick Simmons (D-Greenville)
The 12th is a Greenville-based, black majority Mississippi River district. The other Sen. Simmons should be Safe here. It is a 74% Obama district.
The 13th goes from a black majority 74% Obama district to a 62% McCain district. The new 13th essentially soaks up all the white voters in between the black majority 10th, 11th, 12th, and 24th districts. No current Senator lives here. I’d rate it at Likely R, meaning it’s a second sure pickup for Republicans.
SD-14 Lydia Chassaniol (R-Winona)
Sen. Chassaniol cruised to re-election by 25 points in her centrally-located district. Her reward is a district that gets 4 points safer, going from 56% McCain to 60% McCain. Safe R.
SD-15 Gary Jackson (R-French Camp)
Not much to talk about here. Sen. Jackson’s district is Safe R. 73% McCain
SD-08 Russell Jolly (D-McCondy)
The 8th is the second white Democrat held district turned into an AA majority district. It is a conglomeration of the black areas of the old 7th, 8th, and 16th districts. Sen. Jolly probably will not survive a primary against a black Democrat. However, the seat is Safe D at 67% Obama.
SD-17 Terry Brown (R-Columbus)
The 17th loses a bunch of Dem precincts around Columbus and gains the old 7th’s Republican areas in Monroe and Itawamba counties. His district gets 18 points safer and ends up at 76% McCain. Safe R.
SD-16 Bennie Turner (D-West Point)
The 16th is a black majority district encompassing Columbus, Starkville, and West Point. At 69% Obama, it is Safe D.
SD-32 Sampson Jackson (D-Preston)
The 32nd is another black majority district. It encompasses the cities of Meridian and Philadelphia as well as the black majority counties of Kemper and Noxubee. Sen. Jackson’s district is Safe D at 72% Obama.
SD-18 Giles Ward (R-Louisville)
Sen. Ward won a squeaker of an election in 2011. He gets shored up by losing black Dem areas around Louisville to the 16th and Philadelphia to the 32nd. As a result, this district is now 69% McCain. Safe R.
SD-21 Kenny Jones (D-Canton)
The 21st is a black majority district in the center of the state. Sen. Jones is quite safe in this 79% Obama district.
SD-24 David Jordan (D-Greenwood)
Sen. Jordan’s black majority Greenwood-based district shifts west and south while staying black majority and overwhelmingly Democratic. Safe D at 82% Obama.
SD-22 Eugene Clarke (R-Hollandale)
Here’s a rarity: a white Republican representing a black majority district. No longer. The 22nd sheds much of its black population and becomes a white majority district. Obviously this makes the district much safer for Sen. Clarke. The district goes from 52% Obama to 72% McCain. Safe R.
SD-23 Briggs Hopson (R-Vicksburg)
The 23rd was 43% AA district and voted for McCain by a slim 52-48 margin. However, Democrats couldn’t find a single candidate to run against him in 2011. Nevertheless, he is given a safer district by losing some black precincts to the surrounding AA-majority districts. It is now 62% McCain. Safe R.
SD-36 Albert Butler (D-Port Gibson)
This is another Mississippi River AA majority district. The main change to this district is that it takes in the black parts of Vicksburg to help out SD-23. This is a Safe D seat at 76% Obama.
SD-26 John Horhn (D-Jackson)
SD-27 Hillman Frazier (D-Jackson)
SD-28 Alice Harden (D-Jackson)
Now we get into the Jackson-area seats. I’ll make it simpler by doing a few at once. These 3 seats are AA-majority safe Dem seats in Jackson. They are 88%, 91%, and 75% Obama districts, respectively.
SD-20 Josh Harkins (R-Flowood)
SD-25 William Longwitz (R-Madison)
SD-30 Dean Kirby (R-Pearl)
These are the seats in the heavily Republican suburbs of Jackson in Hinds, Madison, and Rankin counties. They are 70%, 75%, and 71% McCain districts, respectively.
SD-29 David Blount (D-Jackson)
The 29th was a 55% Obama black majority district in the Jackson area. It has been redrawn as a non-AA-majority 64% McCain district. Sen. Blount will likely lose to a Republican in this district. Likely R.
SD-35 Perry Lee (R-Mendenhall)
Sen. Lee gets a Simpson County based district that is a couple more percentage points redder than before. 64% McCain. Safe R.
SD-34 Haskins Montgomery (D-Bay Springs)
This district, currently held by a white Democrat, becomes a black majority district that stretches from Leake County down to Laurel. It is yet another case where a white Democrat will likely be replaced by a black Democrat. It is Safe D at 64% Obama.
SD-31 Terry Burton (R-Newton)
Not that he needed it after taking over 70% of the vote in 2011, but Sen. Burton gets helped by 11 points. This district is now a 77% McCain district (Safe R).
SD-33 Videt Carmichael (R-Meridian)
Sen. Carmichale also gets an unneeded boost in his Meridian-area district. He gets bumped 15 points to a 79% McCain district (Safe R).
SD-42 Chris McDaniel (R-Ellisville)
Sen. McDaniel’s Jones County based district doesn’t change a whole lot. 68% McCain, Safe R.
SD-39 Sally Doty (R-Brookhaven)
Sen. Doty easily won the open 39th in 2011. The new 39th is still anchored in Lawrence and Lincoln counties. At 62% McCain, it’s Safe R.
SD-37 Melanie Sojourner (R-Natchez)
Sen. Sojourner beat incumbent Democrat Bob Dearing by 2 points in 2011. She is helped by losing some heavily Dem black majority districts to the 38th. Her district moves 8 points to the right and ends up at 67% McCain, Safe R.
SD-38 Kelvin Butler (D-McComb)
The AA majority 38th stretches from Natchez to McComb and takes in most of the heavy Dem precincts in the southwestern part of the state. The district goes from 66% Obama to 74% Obama. Safe D.
SD-40 Angela Hill (R-Picayune)
The 40th retains the same shape it currently has. It takes in most of Walthall and Marion counties before turning the corner and going down to Sen. Hill’s hometown of Picayune. It is 62% McCain, Safe R.
SD-41 Joey Fillingane (R-Sumrall)
Just like in the current map, I divide Hattiesburg 3 ways to disperse the Democratic vote. The 41st appeared to be the most vulnerable, so I attempted to make it safer. The 41st goes from 58% McCain to 71% McCain. Safe R.
SD-44 John Polk (R-Oak Grove)
Sen. Polk took 87% of the vote in 2011 against token opposition from the Reform Party. He gives away some of his Republican precincts to strengthen the 41st. Still, at 69% McCain, it is Safe R.
SD-45 Billy Hudson (R-Hattiesburg)
Sen. Hudson’s Hattiesburg-based district sees very little change. It is 63% McCain, Safe R.
SD-43 Phillip Gandy (R-Waynesboro)
Sen. Gandy won the 43rd, an open Democratic-held seat, by 22 points in 2011. His district sees minimal changes and only gets a one point bump. At 74% McCain, it should be Safe R going forward.
The newly-drawn 48th shapes the entire Gulf region. It is a new AA-majority district that takes in the black parts of Gulfport and Pascagoula and connects them through sparsely populated precincts in outer areas of Harrison and Jackson counties. Current Senator Democrat Deborah Dawkins of Pass Christian does not live in this district, and as a white Democrat, probably couldn’t win in this district anyway. The 48th goes from 53% Obama to 68% Obama. Safe D.
SD-47 Tony Smith (R-Picayune)
Despite being in a 51% Obama district, Sen. Smith ran unopposed for an open seat in 2011. Nevertheless, he is the big beneficiary of the newly-drawn 48th. His current district, which snakes from Picayune to Pascagoula was drawn by Democrats to give the best chance of electing another Dem in the southern part of the state. The new 47th loses a lot of those Dem precincts and becomes a 74% McCain district. Safe R.
SD-46 Philip Moran (R-Kiln), Deborah Dawkins (D-Pass Christian)
Sen. Moran won an open Democratic seat in 2011 by taking 66% of the vote. Sen. Dawkins now lives in this district and may be her best chance at retaining a seat. However, it is going to be a massively uphill battle as this district is 72% McCain. Likely R.
SD-49 Sean Tindell (R-Gulfport)
Sen. Tindell took 77% of the vote while winning an open seat in 2011. His district goes from Gulfport to Biloxi and is highly Republican. 69% McCain, Safe R.
SD-50 Thomas Gollot (R-Biloxi)
Sen. Gollot picks up heavily Republican precincts in western Jackson County. This takes his district from 65% McCain to 70% McCain. Safe R.
SD-51 Michael Watson (R-Pascagoula)
The 51st loses much of Jackson County to the 50th, while picking up rural precincts in Stone and Harrison counties. At 78% McCain, it is safe R.
SD-52 Brice Wiggins (R-Pascagoula)
Sen. Wiggins won an open Republican seat in 2011 while running unopposed. His Pascagoula-based district is Safe R at 68% McCain.
Summary: This Republican-drawn map actually increases the number of AA majority seats from 14 to 15. The goal here was to take white Democrat-held districts and turn them into black majority districts. Republicans currently hold 31 seats; they maintain all these seats in my new map. Of the 21 Democratic-held seats: 15 are black majority, 2 (3rd and 5th) are ConservaDem held seats in the northeast, 3 are likely losses (7th, 13th, 29th), and one (2nd)is a tossup.
If 2011 elections were held under this map, the best scenario for Dems would be 34R-18D. If trends continue, the 2nd, 3rd, and 5th will soon turn red and the MS Senate map will end up with 37 white Republican seats and 15 black Democrat seats.
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