(Cross posted from Red Racing Horses)
I apologize... I posted the wrong copy of this map when I posted it. I had a "non partisan" write up and my Republican write up. Again, I am very sorry for posting the wrong one.
Note- This map's write up took the longest of any map I've ever made because I had to find data, manually plug it into Excel, and then do the write up and pics. Please, please comment if you read this. It would make the long process worth it.
In addition, please realize that these race ratings are for OPEN SEAT SCENARIOS.
Also, remember that this is a Republican map, so when I say "we" and "us," it is referring to Republicans.
In Presidential elections, the voters of Massachusetts usually give Republicans between 35 and 40% of the vote.
However, Republicans only control 4 of 40 State Senate seats.
Outside of parts of the south shore, the Merrimack Valley, the Blackstone Valley, and suburban Worcester, Massachusetts Democrats are seemingly fairly evenly spread out, with each town seemingly voting a~58-62% Obama. Therefore, drawing GOP districts int he Bay State is quite difficult. So, of course, I decided to give it a try.
In this map, I...
1. only split towns to keep population deviations under 10%. Only Chicopee, Somerville, and Boston were split.
2. tried to maximize the number of competitive seats, because let's be honest... Republicans sit at 10% in MA right now, and if our seats become open, Republicans could theoretically have zero seats at some point. More competitive seats mean more opportunity, plus, I strengthen our currently held seats in this map.
3. generally kept communities of interest together. Sending Richard Ross's Senate Seat up to Needham is questionable, and Democrats actually lost the seat because of it.
4. tried to maximize minority representation
5. ignored residences of incumbents, because why would my fellow Republicans really care about how many incumbent Democrats I draw together?
All towns aren't shown, unfortunately, but I manually checked every single town to make sure they weren't split.
Enjoy!
The Bay State
Metro Boston:
Before I start, I decided to name these districts as they do in Massachusetts.
*Also, note that all ratings (except for ones with Republican incumbents) are assuming an open seat scenario.
BostonPatriot (MassGOP on SSP) helped with seat ratings, and I thank him for it. I slightly changed a few ratings, but most were his because I truts a local's judgment.
Berkshire, Franklin, and Hampshire.
Incumbent: Benjamin Downing (D-Pittsfield)
Stats: 23.7% McCain, 32.1% Brown.
Wow, this seat is really liberal, especially considering how rural and white it is. As BP once called it, this is Baja Vermont.
Rating: Safe D.
Franklin, Hamden and Hampshire
Incumbent: Stu Rosenberg (D-Amherst)
Stats: 21.3% McCain, 31.5% Brown.
This district of college towns and white, liberal rural areas helped keep MA-02 out of Republicans' grasp for a decade (the arm into Northhampton, that is).
Rating: Safe D.
Hampden and Hampshire
Incumbent: James Welsh
Stats: 39.3% McCain, 56.7% Brown.
Well, while tough to win, this seat would not be out of reach. I think Republicans would have a chance here when it's open.
Rating: Likely D
Hampden
Incumbent: Open
Stats: 23% McCain, 38.7% Brown
This Springfield seat is safe for the Democrats.
Rating: Safe D.
Berkshire, Hampden and Hampshire
Incumbents: Mike Knapik (R-Westfield) and Gale D. Candaras (D-Wilbraham)
Stats: 46.3% McCain, 63.8% Brown
This suburban Springfield Seat should be likely R for Knapik, especially against the weak Candaras, and Republicans should be favored in it when open.
Rating: Safe R with Knapik, Leans R when open.
Worcester and Franklin
Incumbent: Stephen Brewer
Stats: 46% McCain, 64.6% Brown.
This rural, northern Worcester County seat is pretty conservative.
Rating: Leans R.
First Worcester
Incumbent: Richard Moore
Stats: 48.6% McCain, 68.2% Brown.
This is the Blackstone Valley, an area that is pretty conservative and actually trending Republican.
Rating: Likely R.
Second Worcester
Incumbent: Michael Moore (D-Millsbury)
Stats: 44.3% McCain, 62.6% Brown
This suburban Worcester based seat is trending Republican. Native Daughter Karyn Polito did especially well here. Let's hope that when Worcester isn't split, its suburbs would elect a Republican.
Rating: Leans R.
Third Worcester
Incumbent: Harriette Chandler (D-Worcester)
Stats: 30.9% McCain, 47.3% Brown.
This district is composed of nearly all of the city of Worcester. Urban areas don't vote for us, especially in Massachusetts.. Enough said.
Rating: Safe D.
First Worcester and Middlesex
Incumbents: Jennifer Flanagan (D-Leominster)
Stats: 44.8% McCain, 61% Brown.
This seat contains the cities of Fitchburg and Leominster. While ancestrally Democratic, this area seems to be coming around to Republicans.
Rating: Toss Up
Second Worcester and Middlesex
Incumbent: James B. Eldridge (D-Acton)
Stats:33.2% McCain, 47% Brown.
This is the first MetroWest vote sink.
Rating: Safe D.
Worcester, Middlesex, and Norfolk
Incumbent: Karen Spilka (D-Ashland).
Stats: 41.4% McCain, 58% Brown.
This seat contains the more swingy areas between Worcester and the Boston area. Maybe Marty Lamb of Holliston could run here. He ran a pretty decent race against Comrade Jim McGovernment last year.
Rating: Leans D.
First Middlesex and Essex
Incumbent: Steven Baddour (D-Methuen)
Stats: 46.3% McCain, 64.3% Brown
This exburban seat is pretty split politically, and I think it is trending our way.
Rating: Leans R.
Second Middlesex and Essex
Incumbent: Eileen Donoghue (D-Lowell).
Stats: 27.8% McCain, 46.4% Brown.
This is the mother of all Northern Massachusetts vote sinks. The cities of Lowell and Lawrence are combined, creating a heavily Democratic district. These are the people responsible for electing Nikki Tsongas... (sigh)
Rating: Safe D.
Third Middlesex and Essex
Incumbent: Barry Finegold (D-Andover)
Stats: 44.5% McCain, 61.3% Brown.
This exburban seat is territory that broke pretty nicely for Baker and Brown, and this is where Tisei culd run up a nice margin against Tierney.
Rating: Leans R
First Essex
Incumbent: Bruce Tarr (R-Gloucester)
Stats: 41.5% McCain, 58% Brown
This seat contains some exburbs, but also some wealthy areas on the shore. It is also pretty politically polarized, with the inland portions being pretty GOP friendly, but the coastal towns didn't even vote for Scott Brown.
While this seat would usually be pretty rough for us, popular incumbent State Senator Bruce Tarr will continue to comfortably hold this seat. However, if he runs for Governor, Republicans will run into trouble.
Rating: Safe R with Tarr, and Leans D when open
Second Essex
Incumbent: Frederick Berry (D-Peabody).
Stats: 42.3% McCain, 59.4% Brown
This seat contains the affluent Boston suburbs of Beverly, Marblehead, and Danvers. While this isn't the greatest territory for the GOP, it is very competitive.
Rating: Leans D
Third Essex
Incumbent: Thomas M. McGee (D-Lynn)
Stats: 31.2% McCain, 47.4% Brown
This is our first wealthy white liberal district.
Rating: Safe D
Middlesex, Essex, and Suffolk
Incumbent: Katherine Clark (D-Melrose)
Stats: 42.7% McCain, 57.3% Brown
This seat contains some of Boston's inner suburbs that don't hate the GOP as much as most of Boston's inner suburbs. That being said, it's still tough territory. However, Richard Tisei did represent a lot of this seat for years.
Rating: Leans D
First Middlesex
Incumbents: Ken Donnelly (D-Arlington) and Susan Fargo (D-Lincoln)
Stats: 27.9% McCain, 37.5% Brown
This historic seat contains Lexington and Concord... which, unfortunately, have fallen from their former glories of being catalyzers of a movement for freedom and liberty, to now being filed with latte liberals.
Rating: Safe D
Second Middlesex
Incumbent: Open
Stats: 46.8% McCain, 62.4% Brown
This seat goes from wealthy, light blue Winchester, to pretty solidly red (as in, won by McCain) Tewksbury. I went out with a girl from Winchester... I hear it's a nice place.
Rating: Leans R
Third Middlesex
Incumbent: Sal DiDomenico (D-Everett)
Stats: 32% McCain, 43.4% Brown
This seat is more blue collar than its neighbors to the west and north. It is the "home" of Ed Markey... as if he has been to Massachusetts in the last decade.
Rating: Safe D
Fourth Middlesex
Incumbent: Patricia D. Jehlen (D-Somerville)
Stats: 12.8% McCain, 19% Brown
This college professor filled seat is home to Tufts, Harvard, and MIT. Need I say more?
Rating: Safe D
Middlesex and Norfolk
Incumbent: Cynthia Stone Creem (D-Newton)
Stats: 23.6% McCain, 33.6% Brown
This is the home area of Barney Frank. This is a very progressive seat
Rating: Safe D
First Suffolk
Incumbent: Some Bostonian
Stats: Boston Precinct data not available.
Downtown Boston, the North End, and Southie.
Rating: Safe D.
Second Suffolk
Incumbent: Another Bostonian
Stats: Boston Precinct data not available.
This seat is made of white and liberal areas in western Boston.
Rating: Safe D.
Third Suffolk
Incumbent: Yet another Boston Democrat.
Stats: Boston Precinct data not available.
This "fajita strip" district was drawn as such in order to create a minority majority district.
Rating: Safe D.
Fourth Suffolk
Incumbent: ... and yet another Boston Democrat
Stats: Boston Precinct data not available.
Most of Massachusetts's black population lives in west Dorchester. This is the only true VRA seat in this map.
Safe D
Middlesex, Norfolk, and Suffolk
Incumbent: Open?
Stats: 40% McCain, 54.5% Brown
This was the most Republican seat I could draw in the MetroWest suburbs. If I split Wellesley, Republicans' chances could go up, but oh well. I find it interesting that Wellesley swung from 66% Obama to 50% Brown. MetroWest's historically Republican areas are here, like the town of Dover. This seat has a lot of money...
Rating: Leans D (but Republicans seriously could win this with a fiscal conservative who is social liberal and runs on reforming government in Massachusetts).
Norfolk
Incumbents: Richard Ross (R-Wrentham) and James Timilty (D-Walpole)
Stats: 45.7% McCain, 63.9% Brown
This was Scott Brown's old State Senate seat. It drops that stupid arm up to Needham, and becomes safe for Ross in the process. Interestingly enough, it is the only seat completely in Norfolk County on this map. Oh, and in the race against Timilty, Ross should romp. This area is trending right, and it is mostly Ross's old seat.
Rating: Likely R with Ross against Timilty, Safe R for Ross afterwards, Leans R when open.
First Norfolk and Plymouth
Incumbent: John Keenan (D-Quincy)
Stats: 44% McCain, 58.2% Brown
I mixed Quincy, a blue collar city south of Boston, with fairly conservative Braintree and a few other moderate suburbs. This seat looks ripe for the picking, but it'll be harder than it seems. By the way, Tim Cahill did very well here in 2010.
Leans D.
Second Norfolk and Plymouth
Incumbents: Thomas Kennedy (D-Brockton) and John Keenan (D-Milton)
Stats: 31.5% McCain, 45.6% Brown.
This Milton to Randolph to Brockton seat was drawn as a majority minority seat. (AND BROWN ALMOST WON IT).
Safe D.
Norfolk and Plymouth
Incumbent: Bob Hedlund (R-Weymouth)
Stats: 47% McCain, 63.9% Brown
This south shore seat is pretty solidly Republican, and with Hedlund, it is under wraps.
Rating: Safe R with Hedlund, Likely R when open.
Norfolk and Bristol
Incumbent: Open?
Stats: 46.4% McCain, 64.4% Brown.
This suburban and exburban seat is pretty friendly to the GOP.
Rating: Likely R
First Bristol
Incumbent: Marc Pacheco (D-Taunton)
Stats: 43.2% McCain, 61.9% Brown
This seat contains Taunton and the surrounding areas, which are actually pretty GOP friendly.
Rating: Toss Up.
Second Bristol
Incumbent: Michael Rodrigues (D-Westport)
Stats: 31.3% McCain, 48% Brown
Fall River and its surrounding areas are pretty heavily Democratic, although the surrounding areas broke for Brown. Fall River is a pretty poor place... I don't see it voting R any time soon.
Rating: Safe D
Plymouth
Incumbent: Open?
Stats: 50.4% McCain, 68% Brown.
Northern Plymouth County is very conservative for Massachusetts standards. A Republican should win the only McCain seat on my map.
Rating: Likely R
Plymouth and Barnstable
Incumbent: Therese Murray (D-Plymouth)
Stats: 47.8% McCain, 64.8% Brown
The reason Democrats love to split up Plymouth's surrounding areas is because otherwise, the area would elect Republicans.
Rating: Likely R.
Barnstable
Incumbent: Dan Wolf (D-Harwich)
Stats: 43.2% McCain, 58% Brown
The Republican parts of Cape Cod get their own district. Vacationing in Republican districts is better than vacationing in Democratic districts :).
Rating: Leans D
Bristol, Cape, and Islands
Incumbent: Mark Montigny (D-New Bedford)
Stats: 28.7% McCain, 42.2% Brown
Hah. This is probably the only district that I drew that I would qualify as absolutely egregious, but that's because it is one hell of a vote sink. It is a monstrosity in terms of COI, but that's ok :).
Rating: Safe D.