*crossposted from RRH*
I know when there's talk about a change in the size of the House, it's usually in the direction of expanding it. However, I think from a redistricting perspective it's much more fun to make the House smaller.
Throwing incumbents together is more fun than creating open seats, regions are much more easily kept together in larger seats than smaller ones, and of course, who really wants to draw all states with 29015 seats?
So here's NY in a neat, very clean, not intentionally partisan map that gives it 13 seats-- what the state would get if the House was reduced to 200 seats.
The other neat thing is that you can see all districts clearly from state-wide or at least metropolitan area shots, so no need to handle 35 images.
NYC area
I think it's fairly obvious that the blue seat includes all of Suffolk, right?
Blue district
52.5% Obama-46.5% McCain.
50.5% Kerry 2way
58.2% Lazio 2way
74% White VAP
15% Hispanic VAP
Bishop represents 47% of the district, Israel 42%, King 10%.
Well, this was obvious. Bishop and Israel are thrown together in a cage match, and I think Israel would probably have the upper hand here due to his leadership role. If the primary turns bitter (and even if it doesn't, the seat is trending red), the Republicans have a definite shot here, even if not necessarily in 2012.
Green district
54.8% Obama-44.5% McCain.
53.6% Kerry 2way
53.1% Lazio 2way
65% White VAP
14% Hispanic VAP
12% Black VAP
McCarthy represents 44% of the district, King 33%, Ackerman 12%.
Well, this would be interesting. McCarthy tends to be one of the weaker D incumbents, King one of the stronger R incumbents, but the seat leans D... as of now. It's also trending red.
Lazio's performance here shows that a locally popular Long Island Republican can win this seat, although this was of course not running against an incumbent representing half of the seat.
Grey district
50.4% Obama-48.8% McCain.
55% Bush 2way
54.5% Lazio 2way
61% White VAP
16% Hispanic VAP
16% Asian VAP
46% Grimm, 22% Nadler, 14% Turner.
The interesting question here is, do the Republicans nominate Grimm or an orthodox Brooklyn Jew? And if they nominate an orthodox Brooklyn Jew, would Staten Island vote for someone like MacMahon over someone like Noach Deer?
If so, a good shot for the Dems. Otherwise, Likely R.
Yellow
93.4% Obama-6.3% McCain.
92.2% Kerry 2way
92.1% Clinton 2way
64% Black VAP
16% Hispanic VAP
Towns represents 35% of this district, Meeks represents 31%, Clarke 28%.
Battle of the NY African-American delegation. Considering the three black districts are currently really overstretched, and considering the district size is more than doubling here, there's no way to draw even two Gingles-compliant Black districts here. I have no idea who would win. Clarke as a reformer-ish candidate?
Red district
75.2% Obama-23.9% McCain.
72.3% Kerry 2way
70.7% Clinton 2way
36% White VAP
36% Hispanic VAP
19% Asian VAP
Velazquez represents 26% of the district, Turner 21%, Crowley 17%, Ackerman 14%, Maloney 13%.
This is pretty much a free-for-all, although I don't know if Velazquez can hold this seat given that the electorate, given low Hispanic and Asian citizenship rates and turnout rates here, is bound to be majority-white. Crowley would definitely try to muscle his way through with the Queens machine here, and it might well work.
Purple
85.7% Obama-13.5% McCain.
83.0% Kerry 2way
78.9% Clinton 2way
58% White VAP
15% Hispanic VAP
13% Asian VAP
12% Black VAP
Maloney represents 31% of the district, Nadler 26%, Rangel 21%, Velazquez 10%.
Probably the most liberal white majority district anywhere in the nation (I think Seattle is like 81% Obama). Maloney and Nadler would battle it out here, with the minority part of the electorate holding the balance. Interesting setup.
Black district
90.7% Obama-8.9% McCain.
87.1% Kerry 2way
87.5% Clinton 2way
60% Hispanic VAP
24% Black VAP
11% White VAP
Serrano represents 47% of the seat, Rangel 22%, Crowley 20%, Engel 10%.
I suppose Rangel would just retire and let Serrano win by default. I'm sad, two of my favorite representatives drawn together.
Pale Bluish district (Westchester)
66.3% Obama-33.0% McCain.
61.5% Kerry 2way
56.6% Clinton 2way
48% White VAP
18% Hispanic VAP
16% Black VAP
16% Asian VAP
Lowey represents 39% of the seat, Engel 21%, Ackerman 20%.
Yes, this connects Westchester to Queens via the Bronx. No, I'm not happy about it. No, there's nothing you can do-- the VRA-required Hispanic district blocks any way to cross the Bay in a way that doesn't involve bridges and water contiguity.
Lowey could probably win here if she wanted to, the question is, does she, or will she just retire and leave the district to a younger Representative? If Chelsea Clinton ever runs here, will she face Jewish opposition in the primary?
Upstate
Hey, this is so clean we could use Riding names :P
Albany
54.5% Obama-43.9% McCain.
51.1% Kerry 2way
52.0% Lazio 2way
No non-white group over 10%. That's true for all following districts.
Tonko represents 43%, Gibson 34%, Hayworth 20%.
A Hudson Valley seat. I think Hayworth can just hang it up, as a Westchester creature she won't beat Gibson in the primary here. Will Albany or Saratoga turn out stronger here? That Kerry won the seat makes me rather hopeful for Tonko though.
Syracuse-Adirondacks-Great North
53.3% Obama-44.9% McCain.
50.6% Bush 2way
52.0% Lazio 2way
44% is represented by Owens, 31% by Buerkle, 18% by Hanna.
This includes the stomping grounds of all three Representatives (and Dan Maffei's!), so there's a real fight guaranteed here, too. Of course, Hoffman still lives here as well.
Pretty much as close to a Toss-Up as it gets in both primaries (if Maffei runs) and in the General.
Binghampton-Catskills
52.7% Obama-45.9% McCain.
51.6% Bush 2way
55.3% Lazio 2way
40% is represented by Hinchey, 18% by Hayworth, 16% by Hanna, 15% by Engel.
Republicans don't have a clear nominee here, Democrats have Hinchey and later maybe Carlucci.
But the district definitely does have a Republican lean and starts out as an instant Toss-Up, as so many other seats here.
Rochester-Finger Lakes
53.9% Obama-44.6% McCain.
52.0% Bush 2way
53.3% Lazio 2way
37% is represented by Reed, 20% by Slaughter, 17% by Hochul, 14% by Buerkle, 10% by Hanna.
Slaughter is definitely not the right candidate for this seat, neither is Hochul, who is definitely Buffalo-area, not Rochester-area.
I'll have to call Reed a slight favorite here unless Dems nominate some stellar candidate. Basically all of this district is represented by Republican State Senators, including Rochester (Robach/Alesi).
Buffalo-Western New York
53.7% Obama-44.6% McCain.
52.8% Kerry 2way
53.1% Clinton 2way
42% is represented by Higgins, 28% by Hochul, 21% by Slaughter.
I didn't know Buffalo was slipping away from the Dems, but it is-- Obama barely improved on Kerry or even Clinton here while doing much much better in the rest of Upstate NY. Especially considering the possibility of a primary fight between a Buffalo Dem and a Democrat more from the rural parts of the district, I'd call this a Toss-Up at best for Democrats, no matter who comes out of the primary.