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Leading Off:
• Texas: This edition of the digest is stuffed to the gills with news related to the fallout from Texas's new court-drawn congressional and legislative maps—and man has there been a Texas-sized ton. So grab your scroll wheel and head on down to our House and Redistricting Roundup sections if you can't wait to read more.
Senate:
• AZ-Sen: PPP alert! Our friends at Public Policy Polling have some surprising new data on the open-seat Arizona Senate race, where GOP Rep. Jeff Flake leads Democrat Richard Carmona by just four points, 40-36. We'll bring you a complete post later today.
• MT-Sen: Roll Call's Kyle Trygstad has a roundup of all the outside spending for the Senate contest in Montana, a small state where a little money goes a long way. Democratic and Republican sources differ on how much has been shelled out on behalf of Dem Sen. Jon Tester and GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg, but both agree it's been a lot—and here it is in a nutshell:
That includes $911,000 in anti-Rehberg or pro-Tester ads and $614,000 in anti-Tester or pro-Rehberg ads. An additional $524,000 in spending is listed as “issue ads,” including $80,000 in anti-President Barack Obama ads from Crossroads GPS.
Democrats in the state have a different count: $700,000 in anti-Tester ads and $445,000 in anti-Rehberg ads. Either way, the heat is on.
House:
• TX-06: So far there's no reason to believe he's even looking at the race, but Democrats are hoping that Chet Edwards, who long represented an almost impossibly tough House district before getting swept out in 2010's red storm, will challenge GOP Rep. Joe Barton in the latest version of the 6th CD. The old 6th went for John McCain by 20 percent, but the new court-drawn map has sliced it down to just a nine-point McCain edge. (By comparison, McCain won Edwards' old 17th by a monstrous 35 points. Oh, and you'll want to keep that link handy as you read through the rest of these Texas bullets.) What's more, Edwards represented part of this district when he served in the state Senate in the 1980s.
Democratic strategist Matt Angle says the prospect of an Edwards run ought to make Barton "wet his pants," but the Waco Tribune-Herald's Michael Shapiro says that when he last talked to people "close to Edwards," he was "not interested in running in the 2012 cycle." Of course, that was before the new maps, so maybe Edwards is having second thoughts—and maybe Democrats will land a top-flight challenger and put an unexpected seat in play.
• TX-10, TX-25: While we're on the topic of "newly competitive Texas House districts," international affairs consultant Dan Grant is apparently taking a look at the revised 10th, which is now just a 52-47 McCain district (improved from 55-45). Grant ran in the old 10th in 2008, losing in the Democratic primary to Larry Joe Doherty, who in turn lost to GOP Rep. Mike McCaul. Last month, Grant announced he would explore a run in the legislature-drawn 25th, but with Dem Rep. Lloyd Doggett now seeking re-election there (his current seat, in fact), Grant put out a statement saying he'd defer to the incumbent. Burnt Orange Report's Katherine Haenschen interprets this to mean that Grant is eyeing McCaul, which could be a good get for Democrats.
And while we're on the 25th as well, The Hotline's Jessica Taylor reminds us that former Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams had dropped down from the GOP Senate primary to run here. With the seat now dramatically bluer (and all but a lock for Doggett), the Houston Chronicle's Richard Dunham calls Williams a "man without a district." (Cue Boy George: "I'm a man... who doesn't know....")
• TX-14: A good catch by andgarden: In 2002, when he was representing what was then the 9th CD, Democratic ex-Rep. Nick Lampson won 73,783 votes in the territory now covered by the court-drawn 14th District. That actually represented 85% of Lampson's total vote that year, a race he won 59-40. Obviously, things have changed over the last decade (probably for the redder), but this is a big positive for Lampson, who has been considering a comeback bid in the open 14th since July.
• TX-20, TX-35: In case you missed it (and odds are you did, given the timing!), veteran Dem Rep. Charlie Gonzalez announced his retirement late on Friday, the day after Thanksgiving. For Democrats, this surprise move was like adding a seat to a game of musical chairs: state Rep. Joaquin Castro (who is running in the new 35th) immediately signaled that he was likely to switch to the 20th, while ex-Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (who has been planning a comeback in the 23rd) said he wanted to run in the 35th. Undoubtedly more shuffling, here and elsewhere throughout Texas, is afoot.
• TX-27: On Twitter, Dem ex-Rep. Solomon Ortiz, who lost in a major upset to Republican Blake Farenthold last year, Solomon Ortiz, Jr. (son of the former congressman) says he is "reviewing the new maps and will let you know what's next soon." The redrawn 27th (edit: the elder Ortiz's old seat, more or less) will almost certainly be open since Farenthold is more than likely to seek re-election in the new (and much redder) 34th District instead. Nueces County Democratic Party Chairwoman Rose Meza Harrison is already in the race, and Cameron County District Attorney Armando Villalobos has been looking at it, so the Democratic field is already busy. (More background on the race here.)
• TX-33, TX-12: Here's another tidbit from that Richard Denham piece mentioned above: Former Secretary of State Roger Williams, another Republican refugee from the Senate contest, also just got the rug pulled out from under him in the revised 33rd CD. Not only was the new district utterly transformed (swinging from 57-42 McCain all the way to 63-37 Obama), but Williams' home was moved into GOP Rep. Kay Granger's 12th. Ouch.
Other Races:
• Special Elections: It's been a while since we've had any state legislative special elections, but Johnny Longtorso is back in the saddle:
Alabama HD-45: This open Republican seat stretches from the eastern edge of Birmingham into St. Clair County. The Democrats have nominated Paige Parnell, a public speaker, publishing company owner, and runner-up in the 1981 Miss America pageant (I am not making this up), while Republicans have selected Air Force vet and lawn care company owner Dickie Drake.
Grab Bag:
• Illinois: Because a redistricting lawsuit brought by Republicans is still pending, the court hearing the matter just moved Illinois' congressional filing deadline to Dec. 27 from Dec. 5. The court also added that if the case is unresolved by Dec. 21, the schedule could get extended further.
• Funny.
Redistricting Roundup:
• AZ Redistricting (PDF): Just before Thanksgiving, Arizona's Supreme Court delivered another big smackdown to GOP Gov. Jan Brewer, telling her that they would not stay their order reinstating Colleen Mathis on the redistricting commission pending reconsideration of their decision. They also clarified their earlier, terse ruling, dashing Republican hopes that all they had to do was reformat and rejigger their very-un-damning dossier against Mathis, like a college student "repurposing" their World History paper for their European History course:
The Governor’s November 1, 2011 letter constitutes her findings of grounds for the removal of Mathis. The Court’s conclusion that the letter does not demonstrate “substantial neglect of duty, gross misconduct in office, or inability to discharge the duties of office” is based on the letter’s substance, not its format. The letter does not, as a matter of law, identify conduct that provides a constitutional basis for removal. (Emphasis added.)
As to the substance, the court knocked down Brewer's two main arguments: That the commission violated the state's open meetings law, and that the commission failed to observe the state constitution's guidelines for drawing maps. Regarding the former, the court stated that Brewer simply hadn't even managed to allege that a non-public meeting had taken place; as to the latter, the court said that a disagreement over whether the criteria had been followed did not constitute a basis for removal of a redistricting commissioner. It's gonna be very hard for Brewer and her crew to re-impeach after this one, but who's to say that will stop them from trying.
Just about the only thing Republicans can do at this point (aside from impeaching the Supreme Court) would be to repeal Prop. 106, the ballot measure which created the Independent Redistricting Commission in the first place. They can only do this by placing another referendum on the ballot, and some legislators claim that Brewer had promised them the opportunity to do just that. But Brewer is reluctant to do so, supposedly because she wants to wait on a more complete ruling from the high court, and now a number of her fellow Republicans are accusing her of breaking her word. (Lie down with dogs, indeed.) Here's the real reason why Brewer probably doesn't want to move forward: According to Jeremy Duda of the Arizona Capitol Times, "a poll commissioned by GOP legislative leaders last week showed just 36 percent of respondents supported overturning Prop. 106."
• CA Redistricting: As we noted last week, Republicans submitted signatures to place the new, independently-drawn state Senate map on the ballot for a referendum. But they have a problem: SoS Debra Bowen says it could take until mid-March to verify all of those signatures. That means the measure wouldn't get certified for the November ballot until after certain filing deadlines for the state's June primary had passed, which could mean that the commission's map would indeed get used next year. Republicans, who are desperate to avoid elections using the new map, think it should be placed on hold now, rather than waiting until the vetting process is complete. That seems like a weak argument to me, since any group merely hoping to delay rather than actually overturn the maps could just submit half a million garbage petitions, knowing that the law would be temporarily blocked even though their proposed measure would never get on the ballot.
• NM Redistricting: This is unusual: Republicans and Democrats in New Mexico, in court over redistricting because of an impasse between the legislature and the governor, are sounding optimistic about reaching a possible compromise, and in fact say there is already a "tentative deal," in the AP's phrasing. More details:
The lawyers are working on what they described as a “least change” plan, which will make as few revisions as possible to New Mexico's three congressional seats and won't substantially alter the current political tilt of the districts. […]
However, not all Democrats in the redistricting court fight are backing the potential compromise.
A separate group of Democrats, including Rep. Antonio “Moe” Maestas of Albuquerque, continue to push a different plan, which would consolidate most of Bernalillo and Valencia counties into the 1st District and make it slightly more Democratic in its voting.
Maestas, incidentally, has been considering a run in the 1st for a long time. In any event, as the piece notes, the judge is not bound by any agreement between the parties.
• OH Redistricting: Finally, a status report. Ohio Democrats say they have collected over 100,000 signatures to put the new Republican congressional gerrymander on the ballot for a possible repeal by voters next November. Organizers need to file 231,150 valid signatures by Dec. 26, though organizers say they expect to wrap up by the 23rd to avoid having to work over the holiday—and they also tell The Hill's Ramsey Cox that they "would not have any trouble collecting enough signatures."
• TX Redistricting: Beleaguered Republican Attorney General Greg Abbott says he'll seek an emergency stay from the Supreme Court today, to block implementation of the new court-drawn state House and Senate maps, which the district court finalized just before Thanksgiving. The final versions (click here for Senate & here for House) don't radically alter the first drafts we saw on Nov. 17, which means they still represent a huge boost for Democrats (particularly the House map), so you can understand why Abbott is so exercised, even if his gesture is almost certainly doomed. Michael Li explains why that's so, using as a counter-example… Greg Abbott, who successfully opposed Democrats seeking a stay of the infamous DeLaymander at the SCOTUS back in 2004.
The district court also finalized the congressional map on Friday, without touching a single precinct. Rather pathetically, even though the map didn't change, Judge Jerry Smith managed to change his own mind—despite the fact that just two days earlier, he agreed with his two fellow judges when they initially issued this map! Smith, an extremely conservative Reagan appointee, has shown himself to be a partisan hack, and almost certainly altered his opinion in response to Republican hostility to the congressional plan; the majority declared that Smith's dissent came "as a surprise," and Rick Hasen says that Smith all but wrote a key part of the state's brief to the Supreme Court. Somewhat surprisingly, though, Abbott's motion for a stay does not touch on congressional map, but presumably he'll file similar papers soon.
Finally, one link you'll definitely want to keep in your back pocket is this amazing page from the Texas Legislative Council, which has almost every imaginable election result for the new districts that you could ever dream of. (That goes for the legislative maps as well.) This should be a model for all states.