Gov. Steve Beshear (D)
SurveyUSA. 10/28-11/1. Likely voters. MoE ±4.2% (9/22-27 results):
Steve Beshear (D-inc): 54 (57)
David Williams (R): 29 (26)
Gatewood Galbraith (I): 9 (8)
Undecided: 8 (9)
Ordinarily, "Republican candidate surges six points" is the kind of news which sends your stomach clenching into knots. This, however, is no ordinary race. Months ago, when the first public poll of the race showing David Williams in the 20s emerged, I had a good laugh but figured it just had to be an outlier. When the second such survey was published (by a different polling firm), I thought, "Oof, what a brutal trough—but it has to be a temporary low point." When Williams remained mired in the 20s in a third straight poll—from yet another pollster—I was sure that he'd at least manage to lurch into the 30s by the end of the campaign.
I was wrong. SurveyUSA's final survey shows Williams destined for one of the most humiliating gubernatorial defeats for the GOP in recent memory. From time to time, people have trotted out the name of Republican Dan Maes, who finished third in the Colorado governor's race last year with an astounding 11 percent of the vote. But Maes was an absolute nobody. Williams is president of the State Senate. What's more, Kentucky, while showing a certain fidelity to its Democratic ancestry this year, is nonetheless a very conservative state. Republicans should unquestionably have been competitive here; the fact that they aren't is both a testament to Steve Beshear's skill and David Williams' utter unlikability.
It almost goes without saying that Daily Kos Elections rates this race as Safe Democrat. At this point, it's all about whether Beshear has sufficient coattails to assure victory for Democrats running in Kentucky's five other statewide races—and for Williams and the Republicans, it's all about drowning their sorrows.