(Jason Reed/Reuters)
for Washington Post/ABC News. 10/31-11/3. Registered voters (Republicans and GOP-leaning independents). MoE ±5.5% (
9/29-10/2 results):
Mitt Romney: 24 (25)
Herman Cain: 23 (17)
Rick Perry: 13 (17)
Newt Gingrich: 12 (9)
Ron Paul: 8 (9)
Michele Bachmann: 4 (7)
Rick Santorum: 1 (2)
Jon Huntsman: 1 (1)
Thanks to our super-saturated 24/7 media environment, news about the sexual harassment allegations against Herman Cain has already spread far and wide. Indeed, only six percent of those polled in this survey say they have no opinion on the matter. And how has it affected Cain's standings in the GOP primary? As you can see, the answer is, not at all. Indeed, Cain has surged six points while Romney has stayed stagnant. (Yet another example of the "Romney ceiling" that my colleague Jed Lewison has frequently discussed.)
If I wanted to be waggish and deliberately commit a post hoc fallacy, I'd say that Cain has soared on account of these allegations and his disastrous response to them. That actually may not be as dumb as it sounds, given that his fundraising has spiked this week. The reality, though, is that most Republicans don't care about this whole story:
In the poll, a majority of Republicans — 55 percent — see reports of Cain’s alleged misconduct as “not a serious matter,” and 70 percent say the situation makes no difference in their vote.
So far, though, we only have the GOP portion of this poll. I will be really curious to see how Cain's head-to-heads fare against Barack Obama among all voters. I have a feeling that Democrats and independents won't be quite so dismissive of these charges.
