Sure, we've seen this movie before. The GOP primary electorate, desperate as always for the perfect anti-Romney, puts their considerable weight behind some Republican pretender. That candidate ticks upward in the polls, becoming the co-favorite with Romney, whose support has stayed in a narrow band in the teens and low twenties. Then, the new great Right hope cracks in the spotlight, and that is the end of the Donald Trump Michele Bachmann Rick Perry Herman Cain Newt Gingrich boomlet.
This one, however, is a little bit different. While Cain and Perry threatened Romney, and even bested him briefly by a couple of points, neither of them established such an unambiguous lead that Gingrich has (graphic evidence at this link). And this week's data showed Gingrich at his most dominant position to date. So, as it has been throughout the cycle, the interesting week to watch will be the coming week. Will Gingrich continue to consolidate his lead, or is this when Romney starts to reel him in? Can Gingrich survive the hot glare of frontrunner's status better than his predecessors?
For the political junkies, this week had a hell of a lot more than just presidential news. This week saw confirmation that there is one Republican incumbent that is extremely vulnerable next year, and the Supreme Court has officially stuck its nose in the 2012 elections in a way guaranteed to cause confusion and uproar.
All that (and more!) in the Daily Kos Elections Weekend Digest.
THE BATTLE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE
This week, the Weekend Digest takes a slightly different tack as it relates to presidential polling. With the GOP primary ramping up, it makes sense for the primary polling to get its own focus, with a separate focus on the general election numbers. This is a shift from previous digests, where the line of polling demarcation was between national and state-to-state polling. This also has the added benefit of bringing the weekend digest in line with our great new nightly feature: The Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap. Look for that new feature every night, Monday through Friday.
THE REPUBLICAN FIELD: As stated in the introduction, Newt Gingrich's turn as the "GOP Flavor of the Month" has been a departure from previous ones. Unlike Perry and Cain, Gingrich has a clearly established edge in nearly every contest here. What's more, even on Romney's home turf (New Hampshire), Gingrich has moved a great deal closer to the hometown favorite.
The question now will be how aggressive Mitt Romney has to become in order to bridge what is becoming a growing gap between him and the new frontrunner in the GOP field. It would be shocking if we didn't see a major attitudinal change from Romney in the coming weeks.
NATIONAL (Fairleigh Dickinson): Gingrich 36, Romney 23, Cain 8, Perry 6, Bachmann 4, Paul 4, Santorum 3, Huntsman 2
NATIONAL (Fox News): Gingrich 36, Romney 23, Paul 12, Perry 8, Bachmann 5, Santorum 4, Huntsman 2
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking--Sat): Gingrich 35, Romney 23, Paul 9, Bachmann 6, Perry 6, Santorum 3, Huntsman 2
NATIONAL (Poll Position): Gingrich 37, Romney 23, Paul 7, Bachmann 6, Perry 3, Huntsman 2, Santorum 2
NATIONAL (YouGov/Economist): Gingrich 31, Romney 15, Paul 11, Perry 9, Santorum 7, Bachmann 6, Huntsman 6, Johnson 2
COLORADO (PPP): Gingrich 37, Romney 18, Bachmann 9, Paul 6, Perry 4, Santorum 4, Huntsman 3
FLORIDA (CNN/Time): Gingrich 48, Romney 25, Paul 5, Bachmann 3, Huntsman 3, Perry 3, Santorum 1
FLORIDA (Quinnipiac): Gingrich 35, Romney 22, Cain 8, Paul 8, Bachmann 4, Perry 4, Huntsman 2, Santorum 2
FLORIDA (SurveyUSA): Gingrich 45, Romney 23, Bachmann 6, Perry 5, Paul 4, Huntsman 3, Santorum 2
GEORGIA (Insider Advantage): Gingrich 54, Romney 12, Paul 6, Bachmann 4, Perry 3, Huntsman 2, Santorum 2
GEORGIA (SurveyUSA): Gingrich 65, Romney 12, Bachmann 5, Paul 5, Perry 4, Huntsman 1, Santorum 1
IOWA (ABC/WaPo): Gingrich 33, Paul 18, Romney 18, Perry 11, Bachmann 8, Santorum 7, Huntsman 2
IOWA (CBS/NYT): Gingrich 31, Romney 17, Paul 16, Perry 11, Bachmann 9, Santorum 4, Huntsman 1
IOWA (CNN/Time): Gingrich 33, Romney 20, Paul 17, Perry 9, Bachmann 7, Santorum 5, Huntsman 1
IOWA (Des Moines Register/Selzer): Gingrich 25, Paul 18, Romney 16, Bachmann 8, Cain 8, Perry 6, Santorum 6, Huntsman 2
IOWA (NBC/Marist): Gingrich 26, Romney 18, Paul 17, Cain 9, Perry 9, Bachmann 5, Santorum 5, Huntsman 2
IOWA (PPP):: Gingrich 27, Paul 18, Romney 16, Bachmann 13, Perry 9, Santorum 6, Huntsman 4, Johnson 1
IOWA (We Ask America--R): Gingrich 30, Romney 16, Paul 14, Bachmann 13, Perry 7, Santorum 4, Huntsman 3
MICHIGAN (Strategic National--R): Gingrich 31, Romney 29, Paul 7, Bachmann 6, Huntsman 4, Perry 3, Santorum 3
NEW HAMPSHIRE (CNN/Time): Romney 35, Gingrich 26, Paul 17, Huntsman 8, Bachmann 3, Perry 2, Santorum 2
NEW HAMPSHIRE (NBC/Marist): Romney 39, Gingrich 23, Paul 16, Huntsman 9, Bachmann 3, Perry 3, Cain 2, Santorum 1
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Gingrich 51, Romney 14, Bachmann 8, Paul 7, Perry 4, Santorum 3, Huntsman 1
OHIO (Quinnipiac): Gingrich 36, Romney 18, Cain 7, Paul 7, Bachmann 5, Perry 4, Santorum 2, Huntsman 1
PENNSYLVANIA (Quinnipiac): Gingrich 31, Romney 17, Santorum 9, Paul 7, Bachmann 3, Cain 3, Huntsman 3, Perry 3
SOUTH CAROLINA (CNN/Time): Gingrich 43, Romney 20, Perry 8, Bachmann 6, Paul 6, Santorum 4, Huntsman 1
SOUTH CAROLINA (Winthrop): Gingrich 38, Romney 22, Perry 9, Cain 7, Bachmann 5, Paul 4, Santorum 3, Huntsman 1
LOOKING AHEAD TO NOVEMBER: The Gingrich ascendancy is causing some palpitations in GOP land. Aside from his star-crossed past causing them some concerns, there is a big electability issue that the meteoric rise in the GOP primary has not cured, at least not yet.
With the exception of two polls this week (the Q poll in Ohio, and a local poll out of West Virginia), Mitt Romney still outperforms Newt Gingrich when paired against the president in a general election trial heat. This has to make Republicans wonder if they are prepared to nominate the presidential equivalent of Sharron Angle here.
What's more, the protracted primary process seems to be taking a toll on Mitt Romney's electability, as well. As I noted in last night's polling wrap, Romney was either tied or ahead of Barack Obama in half of the polls that were in the field in September or October. But among the polls wholly conducted in November and December, Romney has only led in two out of 13 polls.
Given that this could be a very drawn-out electoral process on the GOP side (a point driven home by our own DemFromCT yesterday), Barack Obama may emerge as the beneficiary, no matter which hopeful emerges from the Republican primary process.
NATIONAL (Daily Kos/SEIU by PPP): Obama d. Generic Republican (48-43); Obama d. Gingrich (50-42)
NATIONAL (Fairleigh Dickinson): Obama d. Romney (46-42); Obama d. Gingrich (48-42); Obama d. Huntsman (50-32); Obama d. Perry (53-35); Obama d. Paul (54-35); Obama d. Santorum (55-34); Obama d. Cain (56-30); Obama d. Bachmann (57-30)
NATIONAL (Fox News): Obama d. Romney (44-42); Obama d. Gingrich (46-40)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen): Obama d. Gingrich (45-40); Obama d. Perry (46-34); Obama d. Huntsman (41-34)
NATIONAL (YouGov/Economist): Obama d. Romney (46-44), Obama d. Paul (46-44), Obama d. Gingrich (46-42)
COLORADO (PPP): Obama d. Romney (47-45), Obama d. Gingrich (50-42); Obama d. Paul (48-39); Obama d. Perry (52-37); Obama d. Cain (52-36)
FLORIDA (Quinnipiac): Romney d. Obama (45-42); Obama d. Gingrich (46-44)
GEORGIA (SurveyUSA): Romney d. Obama (49-42); Gingrich d. Obama (48-42)
IOWA (NBC/Marist): Obama tied with Paul (42-42); Obama d. Romney (46-39); Obama d. Gingrich (47-37); Obama d. Perry (48-37); Obama d. Cain (50-32); Obama d. Bachmann (54-31)
MONTANA (PPP): Romney d. Obama (50-40); Gingrich d. Obama (50-42); Perry d. Obama (46-43); Cain d. Obama (45-43)
NEW HAMPSHIRE(NBC/Marist): Romney d. Obama (46-43); Obama d. Paul (44-42); Obama d. Gingrich (49-39); Obama d. Perry (51-36); Obama d. Bachmann (53-33); Obama d. Cain (53-30)
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Obama tied with Romney (46-46); Obama d. Gingrich (49-45); Obama d. Paul (47-42); Obama d. Perry (50-42); Obama d. Cain (50-37)
OHIO (Quinnipiac): Romney d. Obama (43-42); Gingrich d. Obama (43-42)
PENNSYLVANIA (Muhlenberg College): Obama d. Romney (45-41); Obama d. Gingrich (52-35); Obama d. Perry (48-30); Obama d. Cain (55-28)
PENNSYLVANIA (Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (46-43); Obama d. Gingrich (48-40)
WEST VIRGINIA (Blankenship Enterprises): Romney d. Obama (45-38); Gingrich d. Obama (54-35)
THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. SENATE
AT THE POLLS: The big "holy crap" poll of the week, even amidst the deluge of presidential data, may have come from the commonwealth of Massachusetts. Midweek, a new poll from UMass-Lowell showed Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren has now forged a seven-point lead (49-42) over Republican Sen. Scott Brown. The polls have shown that the third-party avalanche of negative polling has dinged Warren (whose fav/unfav is now a more equivocal 34/27), but it is also having an impact on Brown, whose favorabilities dropped from a net +23 down to a net +13.
Another vulnerable incumbent actually looks halfway decent in a new poll, and this one is a Democratic incumbent. In Montana, a new poll for the Montana Chamber of Commerce showed Democratic Sen. Jon Tester actually leading Republican challenger Denny Rehberg 36-31. That's at least somewhat notable, since virtually every poll in the cycle to date has had the incumbent trailing Rehberg, a longtime member of the U.S. House.
Meanwhile, as the GOP field continues to shake itself out, the new Muhlenberg College poll in Pennsylvania elected to test incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey in a generic re-elect poll. In that configuration, Casey actually performed fairly well: Casey took the lead over a generic Republican easily (49-27). He had approval ratings in this poll that any incumbent would kill for (54/24), which is obviously helping his case when paired against Republican Jesus.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- The most interesting entries on the rumor mill this week at the Senate level seem to be coming from, of all places, Nebraska. Popular GOP Gov. Dave Heineman has been rumored to be the target of a major recruiting effort by the Republicans, and the overtures have not been met with a definitive "no." But, as our own David Nir noted during the week, this seems to be more of an effort to goad Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson into retirement (he has been surprisingly noncommittal about his plans for next year) than a serious consideration of a Senate bid. With Nelson still deciding whether to shit or get off the pot, another name is surfacing: former Sen. Bob Kerrey. In an interview with a local media outlet, Kerrey said it was "unlikely" that he'd run, but he did not explicitly rule it out.
- It is a bit of "inside baseball", but well worth talking about. The DSCC, and chair Patty Murray, appear to be willing to signal that they have some favorites in some still-contested Democratic primary contests for the Senate. This week alone, we saw the DSCC speak highly of Mazie Hirono, something that her Democratic opponent in Hawaii, former Rep. Ed Case, publicly seethed over (note he didn't seem to mind when the other national Democratic campaign wing, the DCCC, tipped their preference for him in 2010 when he was paired with now-Rep. Colleen Hanabusa). But Hawaii wasn't the only place where either the DSCC (or Murray, acting on her own accord) laid their cards on the table. There was also kind words for Rep. Chris Murphy in Connecticut, and Rep. Martin Heinrich in New Mexico. Both gentlemen face potentially competitive primaries in their races to replace Joe Lieberman and Jeff Bingaman, respectively.
- When is a wealthy primary challenger a good thing for an incumbent? When it is the second primary challenger that mounts a challenge. That is the, counterintuitive as it may seem, good fortune of Indiana Republican Sen. Dick Lugar. Polls showed that Lugar could be very vulnerable when paired with GOP primary challenger Richard Mourdock. But, now, with auto dealer Bob Thomas leaping into the fray this week, the anti-incumbent sentiment can be directed to two candidates, giving Lugar the very real possibility of surviving in a 40-30-30 three way race.
THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. HOUSE
AT THE POLLS: We haven't looked at this much, but some pollsters have taken (with redistricting still leaving things up in the air) to doing generic ballot tests in individual states. PPP has done that in every state survey they have done for quite some time, and Muhlenberg added their two cents on the subject in Pennsylvania. The common theme has actually been pretty decent for the Democrats. In that Keystone State poll, Muhlenberg found voters slightly more likely to prefer Democrats to Republicans (40-35), in a state that was an unmitigated disaster for Democrats in 2010. PPP also found Democrats leading Republicans (40-36) in a generic tabulation in Colorado, and leading by an even wider (46-40) margin over the GOP in Florida.
In actual 2012 polling, we get a rather interesting poll out of the newly-created NV-04. Interesting because the poll was conducted on behalf of a man who is not yet a candidate for the district. He almost certainly will be, however, which is why Republican Danny Tarkanian polled the district. Tarkanian destroyed state senator Barbara Gervaske in a GOP primary (73-9), and he also claimed a lead in a general election over likely Democratic challenger Steven Horsford (47-36). The latter seems to be a bit optimistic, given the bluish tint of the district. The poll was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- The big news this week came on Friday, with the rather surprising news that the U.S. Supreme Court had agreed to issue a stay blocking the use of the court-drawn interim maps in Texas. The blocking of those interim maps could raise ten types of chaos, given that Texas is one of the earliest states in the Union to hold primaries. Thus, the clock is ticking: with the filing deadline scheduled for this week, and the court not hearing oral arguments until January 9th, delays of the elections in the Lone Star State appear inevitable.
- Sure, this move could've nominated him for "air ball of the week", but he's just too easy. We learned this week that freshman GOP Rep. Joe Walsh has abandoned plans to challenge fellow freshman Rep. Randy Hultgren in a GOP primary in IL-14. Rather he will run in the heavily Democratic IL-08, nominally his "old district", but dramatically altered in redistricting. Why would he embark on a suicide mission? The answer, apparently, is money. The story now is that Walsh extracted a promise from Speaker Boehner to funnel over $3 million his way. Somehow, I have a hard time believing that Boehner will direct the NRCC or other bodies to throw seven figures into a 62% Obama district.
- Those curious about the state of House districts post-redistricting are in luck: our own JeffMD has been back in the lab again (the old SSP labs, of course). New presidential election data for four states (Hawaii, Idaho, Maryland, and Michigan) have been added, with more on the way.
THE BATTLE FOR THE STATE HOUSE
AT THE POLLS: Given that Montana is, at best, a purply-red state, some might've assumed that the Montana gubernatorial seat would be a race where picking off the seat from the Democrats (Gov. Brian Schweitzer is term-limited) would be a fairly easy mark for the GOP. As college football pundit Lee Corso might opine: "not so fast, my friend". The new PPP poll in Montana (hardly a Democratic-leaning poll, given how poorly the president fared in that survey) has Democratic candidate Steve Bullock (the state's attorney general) only a single point behind GOP frontrunner Rick Hill (a former congressman). The raw numbers are a coinflip (39-38) when Bullock is paired with Hill. If Hill somehow fails to win the GOP nod, Bullock would open the 2012 cycle with a lead over any other GOP contender, with margins ranging from 9-12 points.
Democrats also have the most vulnerable gubernatorial incumbent in the 2012 cycle, and this month's PPP poll in North Carolina does little to dispel that notion. Gov. Bev Perdue still trails her Republican rival Pat McCrory, this time by a ten-point margin (50-40). There had been some noise that Democratic state legislator Bill Faison might challenge Perdue in a primary. At this point, that primary is a non-starter: Faison trails Perdue by a two-to-one margin. Even if he were to score the primary upset, he'd start the general election down over twenty points (47-26) to McCrory.
And ... finally ... I know he's not up until 2014. But, damn, talk about an ever-increasing mountain of suck. In Florida, Republican Gov. Rick Scott is, to say the least, a bit unloved. His job approval sits at 26/58, and he would get smooshed in a rematch with 2010 Democratic nominee Alex Sink. President Obama would probably do well to handcuff the GOP nominee to this guy in Florida. Such a move might lock down the state's 29 electoral votes.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- If Wisconsin Democrats maintain their momentum and force a recall election on GOP Gov. Scott Walker, they now have a declared candidate. State senator Tim Cullen has thrown his hat into the ring. Cullen, a veteran legislator on his second tour in the state Senate (and first elected in 1975!), is unlikely to be the only Democrat to declare. Other candidates are still publicly mulling bids.
- In Vermont, first-term Democratic Gov. Peter Shumlin has his first name-brand Republican opponent. State senator Randy Brock, the former state auditor, announced his bid midweek. With most of the prominent GOP players in the state unlikely to make a bid, Brock immediately becomes the GOP frontrunner. A midsummer PPP poll in the state gave Shumlin a sizeable edge (51-29) over Brock.
- Not that this comes as a surprise, but check out this bit of campaign dickishness. Jay Inslee earned the endorsement of the state teachers union (the WEA) in Washington. That is no shock--teachers unions usually are politically married to the Democrats. But their early involvement, and particular fervor, for this race comes from a peculiar move by Republican Rob McKenna. McKenna did not bother even sitting down with the union for an endorsement interview. Even if you don't have a snowball's chance in Hell of winning the endorsement, sitting the interview is something of a formality. McKenna's snub probably just bought him a little extra effort from state teachers, something that might matter in a close election.
THE ELECTIONS DIGEST “AIR BALL” OF THE WEEK AWARD
For the first time in the brief history of the "Air Ball", we have an mostly presidential field to contend with here. And a much deserving presidential field, at that. But I'm gonna guess that the non-presidential entrant is going to get a few votes here, as well.
- NEWT GINGRICH: Being a frontrunner doesn't mean you still cannot be a total prick. Gingrich's prick moment of the week has to go to his dog-whistle reference to Barack Obama as a "food stamp" president. In contrast, he referred to himself as a "paycheck president". Which might be true, given that he has cashed a bunch of paychecks over the years, as we well know. As for Gingrich's concern for paychecks for others? That's a tad more debatable.
- RICK PERRY: Speaking of attempts to connect with the GOP's worst and most basic elements. Attacking gay soldiers might get you a percent or two in the GOP primary, Governor, but it's a pretty pathetic way of doing so. And speaking of pathetic ... hey, Governor, thanks for the most moronic gaffe of the week, as well.
- MITT ROMNEY: Ah, Mittens. We get it. You're numbers on the GOP side are sinking like a turd in a well. Newt Gingrich comes out of the single digits, and now he has a double-digit lead on you. Really, we get it. And that's why we, as well as the rest of America, are interpreting your sudden embrace of the Ryan plan for what it is: a somewhat sad attempt to look like a fire-breathing teabagger in order to halt the slide, as well as an attempt to try to clip Gingrich as he ascends.
- KARL ROVE: His organization, Crossroads GPS, has spent millions of Wall Street dollars trying to stunt the momentum of Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts. Their latest effort, however, borders on parody. Did you know that the problem with Warren is that she is too cozy with Wall Street? Betcha didn't know that. Of course, last month, the problem was that she was too close to Occupy Wall Street. I guess Rove and his ilk have bought into the old saying that consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds!
