Rankings are cross-listed on sk7326's personal site
So here we are, 14 weeks down, three to go, and two more editions of this volume for the regular season. Never has the league gotten to see this - sure there have been years with team's chasing perfection, but TWO - this late in the game? But sure enough, we are here with the Packers three games away and the Colts for the second time in three years starting at a chance at history. Famously, Jim Caldwell sat the varsity in the chase for perfection in 2009 - will he play the starters now with a chance to taste the apple? Oh, the intrigue.
Green Bay, with its vivisection of Oakland, continues to truck along unabated. Yes, the defense has given up a lot of yards - but it is instructive to note that they are also almost always leading - but has made up for it with a lot of big plays. As I noted last week, they are the best team in the league. Of course, as far as the title goes - the only thing that is of import - nothing is set in stone. After all, if a favorite in politics can allow himself to get outflanked by probably the single worst human being to run for public office in a non-stunt campaign, anything is possible when the games start to really count. As always, the rankings are a comparison of RPI, adjusted scoring margin, record vs common opponents, record vs good teams and head to head results.
1 (1). Green Bay Communists (13-0) 31 pairwins
2 (2). Baltimore Edgar Allan Poems (10-3) 30
3 (3). New Orleans Saints (10-3) 28
4 (6). Houston Texans (10-3) 27
5 (4). Greater Boston and Providence Patriots (10-3) 27
6 (7). Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) 25
7 (5). San Francisco 49ers (10-3) 25
8 (8). Detroit Lions (8-5) 23
9 (9). Denver Incompletion Jesuses (8-5) 22
10 (10). Northern New Jersey Jets (8-5) 22
11 (13). Atlanta Falcons (8-5) 19
12 (17). Northern New Jersey Giants (7-6) 18
13 (16). Los Angeles Raiders of Oakland (7-6) 17
14 (12). Cincinnati Other Paul Browns (7-6) 17
15 (11). Chicago Bears (7-6) 17
16 (15). Dallas Cowboys (7-6) 16
17 (14). Tennessee Non-Oilers (7-6) 15
18 (19). Los Angeles Chargers of San Diego (6-7) 13
19 (20). Arizona Cactus Wrens (6-7) 12
20 (21). Seattle Seahawks (6-7) 12
21 (23). Philadelphia Eagles (5-8) 11
22 (27). Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9) 9
23 (22). Kansas City Texans (5-8) 8
24 (18). Buffalo Bills (5-8) 8
25 (24). Land Mass Surrounding Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9) 6
26 (26). Carolina Panthers (4-9) 5
27 (25). Miami Dolphins (4-9) 5
28 (28). Washington Racial Slurs (4-9) 4
29 (29). Cleveland Paul Browns (4-9) 2
30 (30). Minnesota Vikings (2-11) 2
31 (31). Cleveland Anaheim Rams of Saint Louis (2-11) 1
32 (32). Peyton Manning's Co-Workers (0-13) 0
The schedule ratings - as one can imagine - have gotten tighter as the season has worn on. Indeed at this point (using a 16 game basis) the best and worst schedules are barely a game apart. But for posterity:
8 hardest (opp record, SoS rating):
1. Minnesota Vikings (86-70, .526)
2. Oakland Raiders (84-72, .520)
3. Denver Broncos (82-74, .519)
4. Tampa Bay Bucs (84-72, .518)
5. Chicago Bears (82-74, .515)
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (83-73, .515)
7. Cincinnati Bengals (82-74, .514)
8. Detroit Lions (82-74, .514)
8 easiest
25. Seattle Seahawks (75-81, .489)
26. Philadelphia Eagles (75-81, .485)
27. New England Patriots (73-83, .484)
28. San Francisco 49ers (73-83, .482)
29. Carolina Panters (72-84, .482)
30. Arizona Cardinals (72-84, .480)
31. Dallas Cowboys (73-83, .479)
32. Washington Redskins (72-84, .473)
A quick scan of the divisions, now that 3 games are left?
AFC East: Patriots up 2 with 3 to go. Patriots have the upper hand still. The tiebreakers may or may not come up roses for them, but their position feels safe.
AFC South: Texans clinched it Sunday. As of this second they are the #1 seed by tiebreak. Will this hold?
AFC North: Still a Ravens/Steelers world here. Ravens still in the drivers seat for a bye of some kind.
AFC West: Denver starting to pull away a bit - but their clash with New England Sunday afternoon will tell a lot. Also, San Diego is making their annual push to try to save its season - and god knows the talent is there. But if Denver gets the 9th win (and New England never plays well there), much might be resolved by this time next week.
Wild Card: The Jets, the Titans, the Bengals, the Raiders fighting for one spot. The Jets have a non-trivial schedule left at Philadelphia, "hosting" the Giants and then at Miami. They are the AFC team that needs no help to get in, but those are 3 loseable games. They are the strongest of the Wild Card contenders. The Titans though have the schedule advantage, with Indy, Jacksonville and a possible JV Houston squad.
The guess: 1. Ravens 2. Texans 3. Patriots 4. Broncos 5. Steelers 6. Jets
NFC East: What a game Sunday night. The Giants got up off the mat, and the Philadelphia Eagles got to high five each other. The Eagles have been dormie (to use a golf term) for a while, and still are. However - they win a 3-way tie at 8-8. The Giants win was a huge step in that direction. The Cowboys have kicked away two golden chances to ice this division, and that might not be comin back now. I'm still picking them - but only because I have no freakin clue anymore.
NFC South: The Saints are rolling now. The Falcons are mathematically alive, and should be in a good position to win 10 games, but hard to see the Saints collapsing here.
NFC North: let's skip this.
NFC West: same, though the Seahawks and Cardinals dreams are still alive in theory, but too many teams to jump in too little time. That said, the 49ers surprising loss in the desert changed the landscape of the 2nd bye. Due to conference record, the 49ers still have the edge for the #2 seed, but they'd best be careful.
Wild Card: This is still very fluid. The Cowboys, Giants, Falcons, Bears, Lions, Seahawks and Cardinals are all fighting for two positions - with the Falcons clearly in the drivers seat for one of them at this point. The Bears before the injuries robbed them of offense were looking terrific, but I just don't know if they can score enough points. Sure Detroit has gone cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs lately, but they at least have enough healthy bodies.
The guess: 1. Packers 2. 49ers 3. Saints 4. Cowboys 5. Falcons 6. Lions
As always we need to get justice and equal opportunity for ALL of us - and there are a lot of serious diaries here where urgent issues are being discussed. This is not one of those diaries :).
The guess: 1. Packers 2. 49ers 3. Saints 4. Cowboys 5. Falcons 6. Lions