In the course of human events presidential campaigns are some of the most interesting things that happen and this time, despite the ridiculousness of the Republican field is no exception. This race will soon crystalize into a two way contest between Rick Perry and Mitt Romney which was all it could ever be. The party's primary contest is to find an alternative to President Obama by way of finding an alternative to Mitt Romney, the default frontrunner.
The party isn't going to reject Romney in favor of a different Mormon who worked for President Obama in China. People like Richard Land will quickly denounce calling Mormonism a cult but will just as quickly deny that it is a Christian church. What they leave unmentioned is the fact that the people they talk to will not consider voting for a non Christian for president. After the NH primary Huntsman will go home, root for President Obama, and prepare for 2016. Let's be serious, the nominee was never going to be a black man and if you are a woman not named Palin then you too need not apply. Rick Santorum though, is a curious case. He's been a principled and consistent conservative which explains why he won't get my vote but not why he won't get the nomination. What's most curious about him is that he served two plus terms in the Senate and isn't personally any richer than he is. Evidently he hasn't been willing to sell enough influence and access to satisfy his fellow Republicans.
This leaves Newt and Ron Paul who are both wholly unacceptable to Republicans but for different reasons. Newt is completely unpalatable but not because of adultery and the three marriages. Nor is it because of the massive fine for ethics violations. Nor is it because of the many policy flip flops. Nor is it because of the cartoonishly large ego. It isn't even because he was a lobbyist for Freddie Mac. Newt lost spectacularly to Bill Clinton and now the disgraced former Speaker wants a chance to take on the guy who upset the Clinton machine. As much as I want to be wrong about this, Newt will not be the nominee, nothing has been that easy for President Obama so far and there is no reason to expect that to change now. Ron Paul can forget it, no matter what happens in Iowa, because he is simply too radical. This isn't about foreign policy, where he actually speaks for most Americans. On domestic issues though he proposes to totally undo our way of life. The entire industries of energy, transportation, food and healthcare exist as they do because of public spending. His belief in really walking the conservative walk is precisely why he is too far out of the mainstream and unelectable. This is why the party likes Paul Ryan so much; he's an extremist nut but at least he knows to try and soften it up and not scare people so much.
So Rick Perry can find himself the default alternative to the default frontrunner. Romney will likely win Iowa but the other story out of the caucus will be the surprising strong showing of Rick Perry. Ron Paul likely gets second but he may win. By doing well now when he is so unelectable he is really only giving Perry more time to regroup. Gingrich and Paul are hopeless for reasons already stated and I reject the notion that Perry has blown it due to some flubbed lines in some debates. Herman Cain went up in the polls after he ran the numbers on how he would screw the poor and the middle class. Perry may be running because he was pitched the idea by some self serving consultants and operatives but they were not wasting their time on a bad choice for today's GOP. Romney makes the stronger general election candidate but that might speak to nothing. Romney wants to replay 1980 and Perry has the potential to replay 1964. Romney's problem is going to be that Jimmy Carter didn't kill bin Laden.