As one might expect over the Christmas weekend, we are decidedly light on content as we kick off the week before the Iowa caucuses. It has actually been quite amusing to watch some of my favorite political writers and polling addicts on Twitter this weekend, doing everything short of begging Santa to deliver new Iowa polling into their inboxes.
Alas, nothing new from Iowa, though our polling pals over at PPP are heading back into the field today. But we did get new data from two national surveys on the GOP primary front, and the Boston Globe did take a fresh look at New Hampshire, albeit one that looks one hell of a lot like the old takes on the Granite State.
To the numbers!
NATIONAL (APCO Insight): Romney 30, Gingrich 25, Paul 17, Bachmann 10, Perry 9, Santorum 5, Huntsman 4
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Gingrich 26, Romney 23, Paul 12, Perry 8, Bachmann 6, Santorum 3, Huntsman 1
NEW HAMPSHIRE (UNH/Boston Globe): Romney 39, Gingrich 17, Paul 17, Huntsman 11, Santorum 3, Bachmann 2, Perry 1
The APCO insight poll, showing Romney with a lead nationally, comes with a sizeable caveat. It is an all-internet poll, and seems more focused on a rather interesting side issue (examining "emotional links" between candidates and voters) than it does about gauging the state of the Republican primary. Needless to say, it also emanates from a company that does not issue much campaign polling.
That said, the study is damned interesting: among the chief findings is that while Romney might be leading the field, his supporters are startlingly uncommitted (only 10% of his supporters are entirely certain of their vote). It also looks at what the supporters for each candidate are latching onto when they declare their fealty to said candidate. As I said, interesting stuff.
Less interesting, admittedly, was the Gallup tracker and the New Hampshire numbers, both of which showed little movement from previous surveys. That, in itself, is unsurprising. It was a long holiday weekend, and political news was pretty hard to come by. It will be interesting to see what today's events (be it the odd fixation of Ron Paul as it related to gay men's toilets or Newt Gingrich and his marital past again biting him in the ass) do to the numbers over the next few days, especially in light of the ramp up in Iowa. We learned today that Newt Gingrich is giving up the pretense of his "positive campaign", taking direct aim at Mitt Romney. Of course, our own Kaili Joy Gray pointed out last week that Gingrich's "Kumbaya" campaign was utter bullshit to begin with, but now it is a little more naked than it was before.
Meanwhile, on the general election front, we have ... crickets. Team Obama has to be pretty pleased with being in net-positive territory on the Gallup daily tracking poll for the first time in quite a long time. It will bear watching over the next week or so if this is ephemeral, or if we see additional evidence that Obama's improved standing is paying dividends on the general election front.