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• WA Redistricting: Washington's redistricting commission just released a new draft congressional map on Wednesday that represents a compromise between the panel's Republican and Democratic members. David Jarman's complete district-by-district analysis is available at the link, and I strongly encourage you to read it. In the meantime, here's the map:
(click for larger)
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• AZ-05: Former state Senate Majority Leader Chuck Gray is dropping out of the race for Rep. Jeff Flake's open House seat, saying he's unhappy about the revised district lines. He also claimed he didn't want to split the conservative vote and therefore endorsed ex-Rep. Matt Salmon, who is making a comeback bid, over former state House Speaker Kirk Adams in the Republican primary. The reality, though, is that Gray is trying to save face here: He had raised bupkes in his bid, while Salmon and Adams had secured big-name endorsements and made it clear that the real race was between the two of them.
• IL-16: Well, this is disappointing. Not a single Democrat filed to run by Tuesday's deadline in Illinois' 16th Congressional District—not even a Some Dude. This is a tough, red district, but this means that if the incumbent-vs.-incumbent battle in the Republican primary between Don Manzullo and Adam Kinzinger utterly melts down and damages the eventual nominee, there's no way at all for us to take advantage of that—at least at present. However, Madigoon reminds us that provisions exist in Illinois for local parties to appoint candidates after the primary if no one filed to run before hand, so it may yet be possible for a Democrat to enter the race. In any event, you can find a complete list of candidates who have filed to run for the House in Illinois here.
• NC-06: GOP Rep. Howard Coble, 80 years old and only now back home after a lengthy hospital stay for an unspecified "upper respiratory infection," held a press conference yesterday to address questions about his health and his re-election plans. He originally intended to announce a decision on whether to seek another term this month, but that's been delayed thanks to his recent illness. He did say he is "leaning toward" a run, but it'll evidently be a while before we know one way or the other.
• OH-09: After some chatter that he might run in the 11th CD instead, Dennis Kucinich has made it official: He'll go head-to-head against Marcy Kaptur in the 9th District Democratic primary. Kucinich only represents a tiny fraction of the constituents of the redrawn 11th, so that never seemed like a viable option, especially since it's also a majority-black district. The new 9th is a bit more evenly matched on paper, with Kaptur representing 47% and Kucinich 39%. Still, I have yet to hear of anyone who doesn't think Kaptur is the decided favorite here… except for Kucinich himself.
• SC-07: This is an absolutely nutty story: Gloria Tinubu, a Democratic state rep., recently resigned her seat in order to run for Congress in South Carolina's new 7th CD. Except here's the insane part: Tinubu was a legislator in Georgia! What's also crazy is that Tinubu is giving up a job in the legislature she only acquired last year to make a bid for an almost implacably red congressional seat. A commenter at Peach Pundit offers some even more colorful background on this unlikely character. Pretty hilarious stuff. (Hat-tip: RBH)
• WA-10: That was quick, though completely expected: Former state House Majority Leader Denny Heck, who ran an unsuccessful campaign in WA-03 when it became open last year, formally announced his bid for the brand-new 10th District seat that was just unveiled on Wednesday. (Heck had long made it known that he was interested in running here, and indeed has been raising money all year long, though his FEC filings coyly listed his district as "0.") He also released a ton of endorsements from local Democratic elected officials, including Rep. Adam Smith in the 9th CD and Norm Dicks in the 6th.
This pretty much makes Heck the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination right now, though he may not have the primary to himself. One potential entrant, mentioned here back in May, is state Rep. Brendan Williams. (Ex-state Rep. Laura Ruderman had held open the possibility of switching to the 10th if it wound up including Seattle's Eastside suburbs, but since it didn't, she'll presumably stick with her run in the 1st.) Meanwhile, the most likely Republican name right now is 2010 WA-09 GOP nominee Dick Muri. King County Sherrif Sue Rahr had also been mentioned as a potential candidate, but her turf, like Ruderman's, wound up well outside the new 10th.
Grab Bag:
• Census: It's never too early: Using new Census Bureau 2011 population estimates, Sean Trende extrapolates things out to see which states will gain and which will lose seats in the 2020 round of congressional reapportionment.
• Mashups: Here's another little spreadsheet for you guys: In states where redistricting is complete, 12 incumbent-vs.-incumbent matchups have been confirmed, while another four are still possible. All but two are in primaries: IA-03 (Dem Leonard Boswell vs. GOPer Tom Latham) and OH-16 (Dem Betty Sutton vs. GOPer Jim Renacci). Among the states which haven't finished remapping yet, we're almost guaranteed to get some mashups in New York, but we probably won't see any anywhere else.
• WATN?: Just when I figured things had gotten as weird as they possibly could, the "Where Are They Now?" category only keeps getting weirder.
Redistricting Roundup:
• CT Redistricting: In addition to starting up the process of appointing a special master to redraw Connecticut's congressional districts, the state supreme court also ordered the parties to continue negotiations. Frankly, I don't really see the point, but I suppose this means a deal is still possible. It is worth noting that the GOP has now changed tactics: Their initial plan attempted to screw Jim Himes by taking heavily Democratic Bridgeport out of the 4th CD, but now they are focusing on making the open 5th District redder instead, by moving New Britain into the 1st.
