So this is the next write-up in my series evaluating the proposed congressional changes from the FL State Senate. For those of you wondering what the title is about, Im hinting at Rep Allen West getting screwed due to the inclusion of some parts of the liberal city of West Palm Beach (aka home to Vanilla Ice ). The seat is one of the prime pickup opportunities of the proposed map, along with the previously written about FL 16 and FL 2.
Lets get right into this :
District 22 is an ancestrally Republican district that used to include coastal Republican neighborhoods in Eastern Broward and Southeastern Palm Beach County. This district has changed numerous times in the past couple of decades, depending on the party controlling the redistricting process, but has always stayed Republican. That is, until 2006. It was won in 2006 by fmr. Rep Ron Klein, who then lost it in the Republican wave of 2010 to crazy US Rep Allen West. The new incarnation includes Democratic cities like Wilton Manors, Plantation, Dania Beach, West Boca Raton, Boynton Beach, Lake Worth and West Palm Beach. The Republican areas are anything east of Wilton Manors in Broward County, and most of the coast in Southeastern Palm Beach County. Its a 56-44 Obama district now, up from 52-48 Obama.
How to win :
District 22 is complicated. Under this map it requires a Democrat to win traditionally Dem areas in Broward like Wilton Manors, Oakland Park and the Victoria Park section of Ft Lauderdale, and West wont do well there anyway. The problem is if a moderate Republican runs in the future (and there are plenty of them here), these areas are heavily LGBT and are open to moderates. It also requires a Democrat to do well in more swingy areas of Southern Palm Beach County like Delray Beach and Boca Raton, not a terribly hard task but still a lot of work.
Who could challenge West :
Im really not a big fan of our current field challenging West. Mayor Frankel has a lot of baggage and while shes popular in her base near West Palm Beach, shes not liked in Southern Palm Beach County. Her challenger in the primary, Patrick Murphy, is an untested candidate with a Republican past. If I had my way, Id rather see someone like State Sen. Maria Sachs (D-Boca Raton) or Palm Beach County Sheriff Ric Bradshaw jump in.
If either of those two jumped in, Id called the seat Likely Democratic because of their immense popularity in swingy Southeast Palm Beach, but if we're stuck with the current field Id rate it Lean Democratic with Murphy and Tossup/tilt Democratic with Frankel.