GOP contest may be a marathon, not a sprint

Sabato's Crystal Ball/Rhodes Cook

Sabato's Crystal Ball/Rhodes Cook

Rhodes Cook, writing for Sabado's Crystal Ball, reminds us that this year is a bit different from other years for Republican delegate allocation.

Virtually all of the candidate and media attention these days is focused on the early Republican primaries and caucuses. But taken together, they offer only a small fraction of the total number of GOP delegates that will be going to the national convention next summer in Tampa. Heading into Super Tuesday (March 6), only 15% of the GOP delegates will have been chosen. The halfway mark in delegate selection will not come until later in the month, and for one candidate to acquire a nominating majority of roughly 1,142 delegates, it could take much, much longer.

The article notes the possibility, however unlikely, of a late entry (i.e., unlike other years, it's not impossible this year). But even without a late entry, this may be a slow motion knife fight, since the GOP’s early contests are not winner take all, and most of the delegates are later.

So, it's a reason not to anoint Newt yet. Romney (and Perry) have the resources to slog on beyond Iowa, while it's not clear Newt's organized enough to take advantage of his advantage. And it also provides time for:

a) Newt to self destruct, and

b) everyone in D.C. and the media that dislikes him—and that's a lot of people—to assist with a)

Yet another reason not to have IA and NH tie us in knots.

addendum: see also Nate Silver and Josh Putnam for more.