The choice has been made.
Democrats have chosen Charlotte, North Carolina, as the host city for the 2012 Democratic National Convention, a source with knowledge of the decision told CNN.
Obama scored an unlikely and unexpected victory in North Carolina in 2008, the only southern state aside from Virginia to go Blue. And it was tight!
Obama 50% 2,142,651
McCain 49% 2,128,474
Now, conventional wisdom might dictate that Obama's lower numbers these days might doom him in a Southern state he barely won two years ago. But the polling suggests otherwise.
[January 25, 2011] Barack Obama's popularity rise has come to North Carolina. For the first time since December of 2009 PPP finds more voters in the state approving than disapproving of him, at a 49/47 spread [...]
Obama's gain in popularity has been fueled by voters in the center. A year ago his approval rating with moderates was 59%. Now it's up to 69%. This improvement in his standing, along with the lukewarm reaction of voters in the state to the leading 2012 Republican Presidential contenders, has him in position to repeat his surprise North Carolina victory from 2008. He leads the four most likely GOP contenders at this point by margins ranging anywhere from 3 to 9 points in this month's poll.
Mitt Romney comes the closest to Obama this time, trailing 47-44. Mike Huckabee is next, with a 49-45 deficit. Newt Gingrich is down 50-44 and and Sarah Palin as usual fares the weakest of the GOP hopefuls trailing Obama by nine points at 50-41.
It's safe to say Republicans have no chance at taking back the White House next year without winning North Carolina. Obviously the election is 21 months away but the President's resurgence here is a very bad sign for the GOP.
It's clear Obama's team will go all-in to hold North Carolina, and holding the convention in Charlotte is a key component of that strategy. And it doesn't hurt that Virginia -- another close 2008 state that the Dems would love to hold -- is just across the state line.
Charlotte was competing against St. Louis, Minneapolis, and Cleveland. Ohio, of course, will be of supreme importance once again, and holding the convention in St. Louis would've been a boost to flagging Democratic fortunes in the Midwest (and Sen. Claire McCaskill's reelection effort). But holding the convention in North Carolina sends a message that Obama won't surrender hard fought territorial gains in the new South.
Update: BBB got his wish:
I'll admit to being biased towards Charlotte. I remember the city fondly from the road trip days of my youth. But politically as well, Charlotte makes sense. President Obama did something no Democrat has done in one seems like ages: He won North Carolina. Strengthening his position there puts him on offense in a state he has won before and that Republicans need if they are going to get back to a more G.W. Bush-like map. On the downside, playing in Charlotte could be a waste of time considering how solidly conservative the region is and that there is no spillover effect in neighboring South Carolina and Tennessee. But Charlotte as a choice most certainly would be as bold an in-you-face move as the president has on this list. He'd be telling the GOP: I'm in the South. Feel me?
Update II: Yes, I know Florida is geographically in the South, but culturally it's something entirely different. The same is happening in Virginia (NoVa) and North Carolina (Research Triangle) -- where demographics will eventually have them secede from the South.
Those states are much different than the Old South, which is getting even more Republican than ever. So sure, throw Florida in the list of Southern states Obama won. But when people talk about winning the South, they ain't talking about Florida.