So Politico is running a story about how a failure in Wisconsin could break the American labor movement. While politico is calling for labor leaders to take a decisive stand and agree to lose the opposite question could also be asked: what’s Governor Walker’s exit strategy?
First let’s admit that we have all learned something from Egypt, while one day protests no longer carry much weight, continued protests at sites of political power can influence change. With this in mind let’s looks at Governor Walker’s various exit strategies.
1. Stay the course. Senate Democrats continue to contemplate the tourist attractions offered by the state of Illinois. This has two problems. First the state of Wisconsin will be unable to pass a budget for a prolonged amount of time, potentially endangers its credit rating. Also, what happens if twenty days from now protesters are still at the Capitol. How does this get resolved?
2. Attempt to move as much unpalatable legislation as possible that does not require a quorum through the state Senate to compel the Democrats to return. There are two problems with this. First Democrats would need to feeling that their presence would make a difference. Secondly Walker already has protests outside his statehouse. Now he’s going to own a group of likely unpopular legislation. Also if he gets the Democrats back the other shoe falls, Walker introduces what is likely to be a very unpopular budget, potentially over the objections of Democrat lawmakers literally present in chains. The protests grow.
3. Separate collective bargaining from the budget and pass it through the Senate. The state public employees unions will now strike, as they have nothing left to lose. The functioning of the State of Wisconsin now grinds to a halt. Protesters demand the repeal of the bill and, potentially, the resignation of the Governor. Protest grow.
4. Fire the state employees. Congratulations you’ve just fired a substantial portion of your states economy during a recession and your plans to replace them are . . . Keep in mind that Walker is also promising additional layoffs. This does not make a position as a Wisconsin public employee look attractive. To at least some extent the Governor will need to bring in out of state replacement workers to pull this off. The state of Wisconsin has just fired its skilled public workforce, and brought in out of staters with a random assortment of skills. Needless to say this is not good for the state of Wisconsin. Protests grow as public workers now, really, have nothing left to lose.
So what are the possible endgames of all this.
a. Protesters voluntarily go home after losing to the governor. Always a possibility.
b. Governor orders police to clear the capital grounds. Police are now firing teargas at nurses, librarians and, most likely, their fellow officers. What happens if they refuse to obey? What happens if the protesters take a page out of the Middle East playbook and peacefully return to the grounds in next day?
c. Governor sends in the National Guard. America is now rolling tanks against firemen, nurses and librarians. What happens if the protesters come back the next day? Worse, after all this Tea party talk of government oppression what happens if somebody starts shooting? I’ll leave it as an open question if the Governor can even order such a crackdown without somebody in Washington figuring that it might be a bad idea.
Politics is a pressure cooker. The flight of the Wisconsin Democrats was the systems release valve. The offer by unions to accept the governors pay cuts was another. From what the Unions are seeing here, it seems likely that Walkers budget, when released, will contain massive layoffs. The unions quite frankly cannot afford to concede any farther.
Only a madman could not be looking for a graceful way out in this situation. Quite frankly, Walker has almost no path out that allows him to stay the course and produce an ending beneficial to the state of Wisconsin. As long as Governor Walker remains unwilling to compromise he lacks any acceptable exit strategy: it is a position only a madman could take.