In the aftermath of the 2010 midterms, little attention was paid to some Governors race outcomes that opened new avenues for state by state progress on marriage equality. I drafted a diary on this subject back in November with the idea of providing a bit of silver lining to an otherwise dismal election, but never got around to publishing it.
Here was my November ranking of states, which all elected pro-marriage or civil union Governors, where I thought we'd most likely see action in 2011:
States Electing Pro Marriage / Civil Union Governors
1. Hawaii (84%* 96%*)
2. Rhode Island (87% 76%)
3. Maryland (70% 70%)
4. New York (68%* 48%)
5. Illinois (54% 59%)
6. Minnesota (46% 45%)
() post-election Democratic % in each legislative chamber
* chamber has previously passed a marriage / civil union bill
Now, just a few months later, we've already seen not just movement but results in some of those states. An update on where things stand is after the break.
continued...
Illinois (statutory ban)
Pro civil union Pat Quinn (D) defeated anti-equality Bill Brady (R).
1/31/2011 Civil union bill signed into law.
Hawaii (statutory ban)
Pro civil union Neil Abercrombie (D) replaced anti-equality Linda Lingle (R).
2/23/2011 Civil union bill signed into law.
Maryland (no law)
Pro marriage Martin O'Malley (D) re-elected.
Senate: Passed marriage equality today by vote of 25-21.
House: Committee hearings scheduled for Friday and bill is expected to pass easily.
Bill: SB116
Action: Equality Maryland.
Rhode Island (no law)
Pro marriage Lincoln Chafee (I) replaced anti-equality Donald Carcieri (R).
House: Committee hearings were held earlier this month, but no votes have been scheduled.
Senate: Uncertain whether anti-equality Democratic Senate President will allow a floor vote.
Bill: HB5012
Action: MERI.
New York (no law)
Pro marriage Andrew Cuomo (D) defeated anti-equality Carl Paladino (R).
House: Expected to have votes to pass marriage equality again.
Senate: GOP won control of chamber, but leadership has said they won't block a vote.
Action: MENY.
According to a MENY email the current senate whip count is 26-32-4 (for-against-unknown). Also...
anti equality losses since 2009:
* Monserrate (D-13 Queens), expelled, (Peralta)
* Onorato (D-12 Queens), retired, (Gianaris)
* Padavan (R-11 Queens), defeated, (Avella)
* Stachowski (D-58 Buffalo), primaried, (Kennedy)
* Morahan (R-38 Rockland), deceased, (Carlucci)
pro marriage losses since 2009:
* Thompson (D-60 Buffalo), defeated, (Grisanti)
* Johnson (D-7 Nassau), defeated, (Martins)
* Foley (D-3 Suffolk), defeated, (Zeldin)
Minnesota (statutory ban)
Pro marriage Mark Dayton (D) replaced anti-equality Tim Pawlenty (R).
House: GOP won control of chamber.
Senate: GOP won control of chamber.
Democrats previously held a 2-1 advantage in both chambers and are within striking distance of retaking them in 2012.
And finally a special mention....
New Hampshire (marriage equality law)
Pro marriage John Lynch re-elected (despite massive NOM spending).
House: GOP won supermajority of chamber.
Senate: GOP won supermajority of chamber.
GOP leadership has said that repeal is not an immediate priority. A repeal vote was held in the previous session (2/17/2010, Vote #82) and 39 House Republicans voted No (22.4% of caucus) while 5 House Democrats voted Yes (2.3% of caucus). If those percentages were to hold on a 2011 repeal vote the anti-equality camp would fall short of the veto override threshold.
* UPDATE 2/25/2011 *
I failed to mention two more states that elected pro marriage / civil union governors for the first time...
Colorado (constitutional ban)
Pro civil union John Hickenlooper (D) defeated anti-equality Dan Maes (R) and Tom Tancredo (R).
House: Democrats have 49% of seats in this chamber.
Senate: Democrats have 60% of seats in this chamber.
Bill: SB 11-172
Action: One Colorado
Oregon (constitutional ban)
Pro marriage John Kitzhaber (D) defeated anti-equality Chris Dudley (R).
House: Split 50-50 between the parties and has a co-speakers.
Senate: Democrats have 60% of seat in this chamber.
Initiative: Repeal of Measure 36.
Action: Basic Rights Oregon
An voter initiative to repeal Measure 36 can be referred by the legislature with a simple majority vote in each chamber, or with petition signatures equaling 8% of the vote in the most recent governors race (about 113K signatures).
~END~