We are only 35 days into the new Republican Congress, and the first special election of the cycle is already in the cards:
U.S. Rep. Jane Harman (D-Venice), a leading congressional voice on anti-terrorism issues, plans to resign from Congress to head up the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, a senior congressional source confirmed Monday, setting up a special election to choose her successor in a coastal district that stretches from Venice into the South Bay.
Harman was first elected in 1992, when the suburban Los Angeles district was a fair-fight district split evenly between Republicans and Democrats. Redistricting in 2001 gave Harman a considerably more liberal district, but her politics remained centrist, even center-right on some areas of policy. This frustrated some area progressives, and Democrat Marcy Winograd primaried Harman from the left in recent cycles, coming as close as 59-41 last year.
Winograd would certainly be tempted to contest this district again, but she will certainly have company.
Ironically, there is a pending special election next week in the South Bay area, necessitated by the tragic passing of state Senator Jenny Oropeza. That special election is currently occupying the attention of one of the leading area Democrats: former state assemblyman Ted Lieu. Lieu is well respected by progressives, and it will be interesting to see if his state Senate bid (which might require a runoff if he can't earn a majority next week) inhibits his ability to wage a Congressional bid.
Other Democrats who could potentially make bids include LA City Councilwoman Janice Hahn, who lost a bid in the 36th district in 1998 (when Harman made an unsuccessful bid for governor), and state Assemblywoman Betsy Butler, who scored a 50-43 victory last year over local Tea Party favorite Nathan Mintz.
The district is now a reliably Democratic district, with the last three Democratic presidential aspirants notching between 57%-64% of the vote here. Both Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer also carried the district by double digits, as they did statewide. Therefore, it seems unlikely that the GOP will make a big play here, as it would be a fairly low percentage play.
Some enterprising Republican, though, might invest in a race here, as the new wave of redistricting (which will be done by independent commission) could potentially shift this district rightward by returning the GOP-friendly Palos Verdes Peninsula to the district, as it was during the 1990s. Thus, a respectable 2011 loss could yield dividends in a more amenable district in 2012. It is a dynamic worth watching.
(For more discussion on this resignation, check out Goobergunch's diary on the rec list.)