Could a poor Legislative performance in Helena be the tipping point in Tester's re-election bid?
I have been having fun with the Montana Legislature this year. Full disclosure: I'm not a native. I moved here last January (a wonderful time to move into the state) and frankly beyond knowing the Congressional Delegation and name of the governor, I knew little about Montana politics. I still don't claim to be an expert, but after seeing a few recent polls from state newspapers, I put on political strategy cap.
Two polls have been conducted. The first from the Helena Independent-Record which had respondents 3-1 say the Legislature is not doing its job. The second comes from the Bozeman Chronicle in which 71% of respondents said the Legislature is doing "terrible"
People are, to put mildly, not impressed with the Republican led (and in House, dominated) Legislature. And why not, we've already introduced bills to allow spear hunting, added language to a Democratic bill about protecting pregnant women to make it politically charged, approved measures that would nullify voter approved initiatives not once, but twice, compared women to unfinished houses and cattle, gone after a local city's anti-discrimination ordinance, said global warming was good for Montana and drug up the birther debate on Anderson Cooper so that all of America could catch a glimpse of the dumb.
I'd talk about all the nullifcation bills that have popped up, including one that would make it a crime to enforce the Endangered Species Act, and thus threaten a lot of federal funding for Montana, but....I've given you plenty of reading material. (A few other fun bills popped into my head to, like one creating armed militias, one requiring the attorney general to sue the federal government over health care, and lets not even discuss how they plan on slashing funds despite the Governor giving them a balanced budget). Seriously, its been a busy, busy session in Helena that when is all said and done will accomplish nothing for Montana or its economy.
The people have noticed, and the people aren't happy. So, what happens when 2012 comes around. Despite their best efforts to make voting hard (my bad! One more link!) people could very well head to the polls and help sweep in a Democratic majority. I'd love to say in both chambers, but who knows, the disparity is big in the House. But, I think people have seen what Republicans will do and, should they remember, won't give them another shot in 2012.
Which could be great for Jon Tester. I know he's not the most popular Democrat here at the Daily Kos, but he'd be a lot better than Denny Rehberg, who made his Senate announcement with Tea Party darling Michelle Bachmann By all indications, Tester-Rehberg is going to be close. (A recent poll showed Rehberg leading 47-44, and I believe that was done by 47 North Communications, a polling company run by three people formerly employed by Rehberg, including one he was kind enough to knock out while drunkenly driving a boat...)
So, if Tester-Rehberg is going to be close, and Montanans are extremely unhappy with the Republican legislature, then might people be inclined to vote for the Democrat in the Senate race? Tester beat Conrad Burns by less than 1% of the vote in 2006, it could be close enough that a few thousand votes can swing the difference. If people are angry at the GOP-held Legislature, there frustrations could flow over to the Senate race (and the Governor's race and what could be an interesting U.S. Representative race too).
Montanans are seeing red now, here's hoping that turns into a very blue election day in 2012.