Four recall petitions have now been filed against Republican state Senators in Wisconsin: Dan Kapanke (April 1), Randy Hopper (April 7), Luther Olsen (April 18), and Sheila Harsdorf (April 19, today). The petitions will likely all be challenged by the Senators against whom they were filed, but given that the petitions all exceeded 140% of the minimum amount required and were closely examined before being submitted, all the challenges will fail.
The big picture from these four filings is that partisan control of the Wisconsin state Senate, where Republicans currently have a 19-14 majority, has become a true toss-up. A look at the vital statistics of each campaign shows why.
One likely Democratic pickup makes the state Senate 18-15
First, one of the four Republicans, Dan Kapanke, is extremely likely to lose his recall election. This would shift the partisan makeup of the state Senate to GOP 18-15 Dem. Here is what Kapanke faces:
This is just awful for Kapanke: a deep blue district, a sharply negative approval rating, a wide polling deficit, and Democrats already turning out in greater numbers than Republicans in the Supreme Court election. If there is a way that Kapanke overcomes all of these factors, I don't see it.
Three toss-ups make it 15-15
The other three Republicans, Randy Hopper, Luther Olsen, and Sheila Harsdorf, all appear to face roughly 50-50 chances of defeat. Here are the vital statistics in their districts:
The key here is that all three either trail in polls to generic Democrats, or are in districts that broke for JoAnne Kloppenburg in the Supreme Court election. However, none of the three face both a polling deficit and are from districts that went for Kloppenburg. Further, they all also occupy slightly lean-Republican districts in an overall polling environment that slightly leans toward Democrats (see here, here, here, here and here for recent statewide Wisconsin polls).
The only thing this clearly suggests is a lack of clarity—the recall elections against Hopper, Olsen and Harsdorf could all go either way. That makes partisan control of the state Senate is 15-15, with three toss-ups.
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With more recall petitions to be filed on both sides, with most of the challengers in recall elections yet to announce, and without actual dates for the recall elections, the situation remains fluid. However, at least for right now, it appears the Wisconsin recall fight could go either way.
(Note: Recall and approval polls can be found here. District PVI's can be found here.)
