Hearing recent rumblings of Walker trying to do redistricting before the recall elections made me think about what would a Republican redistricting look like. I actually drew a somewhat similar map a while ago, but was recent inspired by BeloitDem's idea of drawing the recall challengers out of the districts. This was accomplished with Clark, Schilling, and King. Additionally, Harsdorf's district get a little more Republican and Darling's district is changed considerably. On the whole, this map would be more favorable, however certain districts would be tossups.
So lets start with the North:
10th (Deep Pink): Harsdorf's district remain's largely the same, but gets rid of Menomonee, which is a big source of Democratic votes. I could not get Moore out because both she and Harsdorf live in River Falls. Obama 49.1 McCain 48.9
23rd (Aquamarine): Moulton's district gets a point more Democratic by losing northern Eau Claire and some rural territory. However, at 54.5 Obama 43.7 McCain, it would still be a tossup and vulnerable to a takeover or a recall. State Rep Mark Radcliffe of Black River Falls (just barely in the district) would be a spirited challenger.
24th (Blue Violet): Lassa's district remains the same, centered in Wisconsin Rapids and Steven's Point, with a 58.9-39.1 Obama McCain performance. Still Safe D and in the even of Lassa running for higher office, there is a strong bench in Louis Molepske and Ann Sue Vruwink.
25th (Pale Violet Red): Same as above with Jauch remaining with his Iron Range district. 58.4 O 40.1 M
29th (Dark Sea Green): Galloway's district is also very much the same and with 53 O 45.1 M it would be ripe for a takeover, just like with Moulton's seat.
12th (Cornflower Blue): While looking quite similar, Holperin's district is a bit weaker at 52 O 46.3 M. The loss of Native American areas like Lac de Flambeau and Menomonee County, while not being much numerically, are crucial in this red-leaning marginal district.
Lets Head to the Fox Valley:
1st (Purple): Lasee's district move a bit more into Outagamie County, however at 53.2 -45.3 Obama, it still would be a prime takeover opportunity.
2nd (Teal): Cowles's district become a few points more Republican at 50.9-47.7 Obama, so it would be an uphill climb to try and take this seat over.
9th (Khaki): Leibham's district does not change much. At 53.6-44.9, it would be a good takeover opportunity, but Leibham does have a good hold on the district
18th (Yellow): Now here is where the fun begins. This district swaps Oshkosh for Neenah/Menasha, using water contiguity, so it draws King out and at 50.8-47.5 Obama it would be an uphill climb to take over.
19th (Yellow Green):Here is the second half. While this district does not change much politically, it does include Oshkosh, which would mean Jess King would be in a different district. While she could give a run at Ellis (at 55.2-43.1 Obama), it would have to wait until the recalls next year or until the regular election at 2014.
30th (Light Coral): Hansen's district is the beneficiary of Holperin losing Menomonee County at 58.7-40 Obama, but Green Bay and MeCo have to go somewhere.
Let's head South and West:
11th (Magenta): Kedzie is fine at 40.2-58.6 Obama
13th (Dark Salmon): The home of both Fitzgerald brothers. Obama received a surprising 48.8 to McCain's 49.9. So it could be a potential target, but that would be unlikely given Obama's over performance in the state.
14th (Olive): Olsen's district remain's mostly the same at 53-45.6 Obama, but Fred Clark of Baraboo is excised to the next district.
15th (Dark Orange) Cullen's district is still safe with Janesville and Beloit at 63.3-35 Obama.
16th (Lime): Miller is fine at 67.6-31.2 Obama
17th (Dark Slate Blue): Here is where Fred Clark is. With a 60.4-38.1 performance, no wonder what Dale Schultz voted no on removing collective bargaining. So, when he retires, it would be a prime takeover, but as long as he continues to display some sanity he will be fine.
20th (Pink): Glen "Slob" Grothman is still safe in his 36.5-62.1 Obama district
21st (Maroon): In an effort to improve Van Wanggaard, this district loses most of the city of Racine (he still lives in the part of the Racine in this district) and gains some rural territory in Kenosha. At 49.3-49.3 Obama, he is much safer.
22nd (Cyan): Those parts of Racine have to go somewhere and they go to Wirch. At 65.1-33.4, it is safe. To those who doubt it is contigous, there is actually a narrow voting ward to goes up the lake from Kenosha to the county border. Also, if you look up Peter Barca's district, he for some reason, has this ward (Town of Somers ward 8)
26th: Risser is fine at 81-17.4 Obama
27th: Ditto with Erpenbach 66.7-32 Obama
28th: Lazich district changes to include Oak Creek and South Milwaukee (explained later) but she is fine at 43-55.8 Obama
33: This district looks a bit weird because I wanted to maintain towns as much as possible, but Zipperer is fine at 38.1-60.7 Obama
31st (Orange): What a district this is. Combining Menomonee, Eau Clair, and La Crosse into one district produced a sort of Dem vote sink at 62.8-35.5 Obama. Schilling and Vinehout live here.
32 (Navajo White): With some creative gerrymandering, Kapanke lives here in a last ditch effort to save his seat. While it is more Republican at 57-41.4 Obama, I have a hard time thinking he will last.
Finally, we go to Milwaukee for some real fun:
3rd (Blue): With getting the most Democratic wards out of Greenfield and West Allis, Carpenter is fine at 65.8-32.7 Obama
4th (Red): Taylor is safe at 84.6-14.5 Obama, majority Black district, the most Democratic in the state
5th (Slate Blue): This district switches from a marginal to a safe Republican seat at 45.5-53.2 Obama. Vukmir can continue all her craziness as long as she wants.
6th (Yellow): Cogg's district has to expand due to population loss, but taking in West Milwaukee and eastern portions of Wauwatosa (which are both Democratic by the way) still leaves him with a majority Black and 82.1-17.1 Obama district.
7th (Chartreuse): Larson's district losses Oak Creek and South Milwaukee so it can soak up all of the most Democratic sections of Darling's district, that being Milwaukee and the most of the North Shore suburbs. At 66.7-31.7 Obama, this district becomes even more Democratic.
8th (Green): I do not think any district has as much of partisan change as Darling's. She goes from a 51-47 Obama district to a 37.9-60.9 Obama district. So safe R and no Senate district in the Milwaukee area would be competitive. Additionally, Pasch lives in this district.
To wrap up, this would try to secure the 19-14 majorities in the Senate. However, the seats held by Kapanke, Schultz, Ellis, Moulton, Lasee, and Galloway would be considered vulnerable and Holperin would have a more difficult task in holding his seat. Thus, this may seem like a dummymander, but due to the purple nature of the State outside of Madison and Milwaukee Metro, there is only so much Republicans can do to shore up all of the seats. However, I do maintain that at least putting the seats held by Darling, Van Wanggaard, and Vukmir out of play would be a step forward.