After trying to draw a very realistic Democratic 13-5 gerrymander of Illinois, I figured I would try out a fantasy map, and pretend that the Democrats controlled the trifecta in Ohio and could draw whatever map it chose. Here is my entry.
Because I changed so many districts and because I have a general preference for neat, logical numbering of districts, I renumbered all of the districts proceeding generally from southwest to northeast.
District 1 (Chabot-R although hopefully Dreihaus can come back) Obama 55.2%-McCain 43.8%, Democratic 52.3%
District 2 (Mean Jean-R... rather than place her in a district with another Republican, why get rid of the gift that keeps on giving?) Obama 34.3% - McCain 64.5%, Democratic 36.9%
District 3 (Turner-R/Austria-R) Turner's too popular to risk wasting Dayton on his district, so I axed out Dayton and attached it, along with Springfield and Yellow Springs, to western Columbus to make a 2nd new Democratic seat (see District 5). Once I did that and drew the Columbus wrap-around suburban GOP vote sink, there was only enough territory left in Southern Ohio for one GOP district after the 2nd was placed. So this is the result. Obama 39.4%-McCain 58.9%, Democratic 42.1%
District 4 (Boehner-R/Jordan-R) Should be a fun primary unless Jordan tries for the Senate. Obama 34.6% - McCain 63.7%, Democratic 37.5%
District 5 (Vacant, I am assuming Stivers lives in my 6th but perhaps I am wrong... anyway who cares - he won't be representing any part of Columbus very soon under this fantasy scenario) Combines Dayton and western Columbus picking up Springfield, Yellow Springs and Antioch College and a tiny bit of decent northern Greene County. Obama 60.8% - McCain 37.5%, Democratic 60.3%
District 6 (Stivers-R) Contained to just Franklin County now: eastern Columbus and northern and southern suburbs make this a reliably Democratic district. Obama 62.9% - McCain 35.6%, Democratic 60.5%
District 7 (Tiberi-R) Columbus suburban/exurban wrap around. Tiberi would come out stronger under any Democratic fix of the Columbus area. Obama 40.8% - McCain 57.7%, Democratic 41.6%
District 8 (Johnson-R) Oh, Southeastern Ohio, why have you forsaken the Democratic party? This district tries to craft a winnable district in this area of the state; but McCain narrowly won it. Like the PA-12th, this district may not be ours for good in a decade from now, but I am cheered up by the overall Democratic performance number. Obama 47.9% - McCain 49.8%, Democratic 59.9%
District 9 (Gibbs-R is the only congressman who lives here although it would be a mostly new district for him) I am calling this the I-71 district... I wave past this stretch of Ohio farmland every December and January when I drive from southern Illinois to New York State for the Christmas holidays. Obama 39.3% - McCain 58.4%, Democratic 43.9%
District 10 (Kaptur-D) Unpacked the Kaptur district to take in decent northwestern Ohio counties that McCain only carried narrowly. This is done to make the 11th potentially winnable. Toledo still overwhelms the district, though, as can be seen by the vote scores. Obama 57.2% - McCain 41.4%, Democratic 58.4%
District 11 (Latta-R/Renacci-R) Reconfigured the old OH-5 to become winnable now under the right circumstances. And having a nasty GOP primary might be one of them. Obama 51.4% - McCain 46.8%, Democratic 55.6%
District 12 (Kucinich-D) Tried to protect Dennis as best I could but the district had to recede a bit further out of Cleveland because of population loss next door in the 13th. Moves over to northern Lorain to compensate. Obama 57.2% - McCain 41.4%, Democratic 62.2%
District 13 (Fudge-D) District loses its status as an African-American majority district as I believe the Strickland case would no longer require the drawing of a district combining Akron and Cleveland. Besides Democrats would take the risk of drawing this district instead as there is no political gain for them to be had by extending a tiny finger down to Akron - whereas Republicans will gleefully try this in the actual map (sadly). Fudge will still have no problem winning the Democratic primary in this new "coalition" district. Obama 77.7% - McCain 21.5%, Democratic 78.9%. 47.8% Black, 43.6% White, 4.0% Hispanic, 2.6% Asian.
District 14 (Sutton-D/LaTourette-R) Restores the old Akron-only district that existed prior to the 2002 map. Swings west to gain Portage and a tiny bit of southern Geauga, where LaTourette happens to live now. Still Sutton should be the odds-on heavy favorite for this district with Obama at the top of the ticket, unless things go really sour next year. Obama 56.6% - McCain 42.0%, Democratic 62.1%
District 15 (Vacant) Removed the home of Renacci and swung this district east toward more Democratic-friendly areas to merge in with Canton. Still this district is only a swingy/lean-Democratic seat going by Obama's performance. Obama 51.5% - McCain 46.5%, Democratic 59.4%
District 16 (Ryan-D) Essentially I restored the old pre-2002 17th and added swingy Lake and most of GOP Geauga (because it has to go somewhere and in Ryan's district seemed to do the least amount of harm). Obama 55.4% - McCain 42.7%, Democratic 62.1%
So to recap, this map is utter fantasy, but this is how I am guessing the districts would fall were some miracle of fate to occur and this map were enacted:
District 1 Lean Democratic (+1 pickup)
District 2 Uber Safe GOP even for Mean Jean
District 3 Safe GOP
District 4 Uber Safe GOP
District 5 Safe Democratic (+2 pickups)
District 6 Safe Democratic (+3 pickups)
District 7 Safe GOP
District 8 Tossup - depends on how local the election is and whether enough ancestral Democrats switch to vote Democratic on the congressional ballot
District 9 Safe GOP
District 10 Safe Democratic
District 11 Tossup (although with a potentially nasty primary and Obama heavily contesting the state in 2012, I like our changes). Let's split the difference and say that we don't win the 8th but win this district instead (+4 pickups)
District 12 Safe Democratic
District 13 Safe Democratic
District 14 Safe Democratic
District 15 Lean Democratic (Has similar Obama election results to the 11th but has a Democratic score of 4 points more favorable to us... It would depend on candidate but let's say it flips because Obama will be heavily targetting the bellwether of Stark County and he will bring Democratic voters to the polls... 2014 of course is a different matter. (+5 pickups)
District 16 Safe Democratic
Current delegation: 5 Democrats, 13 Republicans
Predicted delegation: 10 Democrats, 6 Republicans with the potential to grab at maximum 11 seats if the 8th cooperates.