The so-called 'stalemate' in Libya promoted by some news organizations is anything but. True, in the east the front line has remained static for a while now but that is deliberate. NATO has requested that the rebels in Ajdabiya hold their positions to allow air strikes to cut off and weaken the sizable Gaddafi force in Brega.
Meanwhile, the important fronts in the war have moved to Misurata and the Western Mountains, with Misurata being by far the more important. Just in the last week, the long, bloody and vicious siege of the city has been broken by a combination of NATO strikes, courageous rebel fighters and the increasing realization among regime forces that this is not actually a fight against foreign Al Qaeda terrorists but Libyans like themselves and furthermore, a fight that they cannot win.
It makes much more sense to advance on Tripoli from Misurata, which is being resupplied and reinforced by sea, than to fight across the long desert road from Benghazi through Brega, Ras Lanouf and Sirte. The regime's defeat at Misurata was a fatal blow and, perhaps more importantly, was seen as such by many high ranking officials and officers as well as many others lower down and is leading to a surge of defections.
Clashed have resumed even in Tripoli itself and those who know that they will face trial and possible execution are looking for ways out even as that gets harder and harder to do. The situation is becoming intolerable to the people Gaddafi must rely on so he will be forced out, possibly within hours and more likely within days or a couple of weeks.
When that happens, a spokesman for the regime will announce a unilateral ceasefire, order all regime forces back to their barracks and call for talks with all parties on the future of Libya.
And that is when the really hard part starts. Will the young people who fueled the uprising be able impose their ideals, will the situation get hijacked by extremists, will unity prevail or will this nation invented by colonialist mapmakers split apart?
All I know is that I salute their courage and how far they have gotten with so little and I wish all Libyans the best, particularly the young.