I've been blogging at this site, Political Culpa, for awhile now and I thought I'd crosspost some of my items since they revolve around electoral analysis and I'm always looking for smart feedback. If they're inappropriate for this site, just let me know.
Everything you thought you knew about the 2012 presidential election got thrown out the window on May 1, 2011. Unfortuantely for the Republican Party, they had a debate to attend on the 5th where they would discuss how weak the president is and why they can beat him.
With the death of Osama bin Laden, a president who was desperately in need of a shot in the arm got it and then some. At the beginning of April, a Gallup poll showed that only 52% of the public viewed him as a strong leader - down 21 points from his pre-Inaugural high. The latest polling - conducted well after bin Laden's death - shows that number has risen into the low 70s by some estimates. In a debate where most candidates were going to attack the president for being a weak leader, reality has just put a very large dent into that notion.
As important as the "strong leader" question is in presidential politics, the most important question for an incumbent president is this one: Do you think this country is going in the right direction or do you think we are on the wrong track? The Right Direction/Wrong Track question is the Dow Jones of American politics, the one measure politicos look at on a weekly basis to see if their side has been effective in convincing the public that their Party is governing well. Before bin Laden's death, people thought the country was headed in the wrong direction by about a 33 point margin - a number that hasn't changed much in the last two years. Now that number has been cut in half to about 16 according to most polls.
Jobs are being created, but not fast enough. Unemployment has increased in the last month. But people feel better about the country now and in politics, perception is often reality.
President Obama has gotten back on message thanks to the efforts of the Navy SEALs, the CIA, and his administration's national security team. Because of this, 5 Republicans that you've never heard of had to make the case that the president is a weak leader while smarter candidates stayed away from criticizing Obama's national security credentials so soon after the death of bin Laden.
Last week's debate was a sideshow. Lesser candidates were asked about drug legalization, and by the sound of the audience's applause whenever Ron Paul spoke, it sounded like the Republican Party was endorsing an immediate withdrawal from Afghanistan and the rest of the world. But the real debates will start this summer (the next one is on June 7 in New Hampshire) and if the questions continue to revolve around why President Obama is weak and not about why the Republican candidates are strong, then it doesn't bode well for the GOP as the official campaign season kicks off.