As someone who follows European politics very closely, I was shocked to receive a New York Times update informing me that the head of the International Monetary Fund had been taken into custody. Dominique Strauss Kahn was leading in the polls as of Sunday (taken before the arrest by France 24) claiming almost 30% support as the Socialist candidate (which in a country that usually has close to 10 candidates for president, is quite a large number). Current President Nicolas Sarkozy is currently 4th with around 20%, though he can expect an increase in light of this scandal.
What is more troublesome for those on the left of French politics is Marine Le Pen, head of the far right National Front, currently second in the polls, and stands to gain momentum.
For those who are un-aware of the details of this case itself, I would direct you to either the BBC's or Franc 24's websites, where there are detailed accounts of the particulars.
Lets first tackle the issue of what this means for France going forward. Without Strauss Kahn to unite the Socialist Party, it is very likely that two or more candidates will split the vote thus preventing the party from reaching the critical second round of voting. I would predict that Sarkozy and Le Pen will reach that second round, and Sarkozy will win; while Le Pen has enough support to possibly win the first round, all of those on the left will support Sarkozy in the second, fearful of Le Pens far right (some would say quasi-fascist) policies. However a trip to the second round of voting will grant the National Front a great deal of legitimacy, making them a power for many years to come in French Politics.
Why is this important for the United States? When one looks at Le Pen's policies, it is clear that a National Front victory (now or down the road) would have a dramatic effect on U.S.- French relations. She has stated her intention to pull France out of NATO (again) and the Euro Zone, which could destabilize the Euro and have an adverse effect on our own economy. Being one of our closest allies, a friendly France is critical to Mr. Obama's foreign policy moving forward.
The second issue is the I.M.F and the global economy. Mr. Strauss Kahn was set to meet with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Sunday to discuss the bail out of Portugal, which would be a joint I.M.F. - ECB (European Central Bank) affair (approved today to the tune of 78b Euro). While the I.M.F has stated that it will continue to function normally, the loss of Mr. Strauss Kahn at such a crucial time cannot be overstated. Without the authority and respect he brings to the proceedings, it is uncertain that either the I.M.F or certain European countries will continue to support those struggling Euro Zone economies. The next head of the I.M.F, who is likely to be a non-european according to a BBC report, may not share Mr. Strauss Kahn's concern for European affairs.
There is still a slight chance that DSK may overcome all this; there is a report on France 24 today where he claims to have an alibi. There is also skepticism in France over the charges themselves, with some believing this to be a set up and an attack on Mr. Strauss Kahn by his political opponents. While it is indeed hard to believe that a man as intelligent as Mr Strauss Kahn would attempt such a thing with so much on the line, his past (his nickname in France is 'The Great Seducer') may hurt his case. No matter the outcome, the reverberations from this case will be felt not just in France, but across the globe.