A while back, I mapped out how Democrats could win back the House. I went through the districts that Republicans picked up from Democrats in 2010 and found ones that I thought we could win back. I now feel that I was way too conservative.
Now that it looks like Democrats could very well win an R+6(six points more Republican than the nation as a whole) district on Tuesday, I feel that Democrats should target every Republican in a district that is R+6 or less. Leave nothing on the table.
Here are Republican districts that Democrats should target:
1. AZ-01 R+6
2. AZ-05 R+5
3. AR-02 R+5
4. CA-04 R+6
5. CA-24 R+4
6. CA-25 R+6
7. CA-26 R+3
8. CA-44 R+6
9. CA-45 R+3
10. CA-46 R+6
11. CA-48 R+6
12. CA-50 R+3
13. CO-03 R+5
14. CO-04 R+6
15. FL-02 R+6
16. FL-08 R+2
17. FL-09 R+6
18. FL-10 R+1
19. FL-12 R+6
20. FL-13 R+6
21. FL-15 R+6
22. FL-16 R+5
23. FL-18 R+3
24. FL-21 R+5
25. FL-22 D+1
26. FL-24 R+4
27 FL-25 R+5
28. IL-06 D+0
29. IL-08 R+1
30. IL-10 D+6
31. IL-11 R+1
32. IL-13 R+1
33. IL-14 R+1
34. IL-15 R+6
35. IL-16 R+2
36. IL-17 D+3
37. IL-18 R+6
38. IN-09 R+6
39. IA-04 D+0
40. KS-03 R+3
41. MI-01 R+3
42. MI-03 R+6
43. MI-04 R+3
44. MI-06 D+0
45. MI-07 R+2
46. MI-08 R+2
47. MI-10 R+5
48. MI-11 D+0
49. MN-02 R+4
50. MN-03 D+0
51. MN-08 D+3
52. NE-02 R+6
53. NV-02 R+5
54. NV-03 D+2
55. NH-01 R+0
56. NH-02 D+3
57. NJ-02 D+1
58. NJ-03 R+1
59. NJ-04 R+6
60. NJ-07 R+3
61. NM-02 R+6
62. NY-03 R+4
63. NY-13 R+4
64. NY-19 R+3
65. NY-20 R+2
66. NY-24 R+2
67. NY-25 D+3
68. NY-26 R+6
69. NY-29 R+5
70. NC-02 R+2
71. OH-01 D+1
72. OH-03 R+5
73. OH-06 R+2
74. OH-12 D+1
75. OH-14 R+3
76. OH-15 D+1
77. OH-16 R+4
78. PA-03 R+3
79. PA-06 D+4
80. PA-07 D+3
81. PA-08 D+2
82. PA-11 D+4
83. PA-15 D+2
84. PA-18 R+6
85. TN-08 R+6
86. TX-23 R+4
87. TX-27 D+0
88. VA-02 R+5
89. VA-04 R+4
90. VA-05 R+5
91. VA-10 R+2
92. WA-03 D+0
93. WI-01 R+2
94. WI-06 R+4
95. WI-07 D+3
96. WI-08 R+2
Yes, redistricting will change some of these districts, but not that much. The point is that there are a LOT of districts Democrats can win if we target them by using the Medicare issue.
Republicans won so big and won so many marginal districts in 2010 because they left NO district on the table. There were Democrats deemed unbeatable, yet Republicans beat them because they worked hard to finally target them. There is no reason why people like Paul Ryan(R+2 district) and Thad McCotter(D+1) district cannot be targetted and defeated in 2012.