Rooftop solar near Tokyo (Photo: Sanyo)
The market for personal Geiger counters is
gangbusters in Japan. It seems that many citizens there don't trust what they're hearing from the government or the Tokyo Electric Power Co. regarding radiation levels. Whether the levels are actually higher than they've been told, this reaction of the Japanese public is just one of the many negative bits of fall-out from the meltdown of fuel rods in the three reactors at Fukushima Dai-ichi. The news that there are
holes in the containment vessels of two of those reactors will not likely slow down those sales.
Some positive fall-out may also be in the offing. The Japanese government has announced plans to require all new buildings — commercial and residential — to include solar panels by 2030. The goal is to increase solar capacity in Japan from today's 2600 megawatts to 39,000 megawatts over the next 20 years. That would be enough to provide electricity to about 7 million homes.
Japan's Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies has stated that the goal ought to be 71,000 megawatts of solar capacity by 2020. That would power 12 million homes. But it would be a prodigious achievement even if carried out over twice the time and, at current costs, a tough sell. Installation costs for wind are far cheaper, and nuclear cheaper still.
But the prospect for building new nuclear power plants any time soon in Japan, if ever again, are just about nil. And while it's more expensive, the solar proposal has one great advantage — it's decentralized power, a good model for everywhere. Moreover, pushing for a 15-fold increase in solar capacity or, as ISEP prefers, a 27-fold increase, would be certain to drive down the cost of individual solar power units sharply.
Besides costs, there are other obstacles. Not the least of which is a hidebound utility industry and political issues. But there are countervailing forces brought on by the Fukushima crisis:
The government called on Wednesday for curbs in electricity use by 15 percent from July 1 for two months in areas covered by Tokyo Electric, known as Tepco, which serves the capital and surrounding region, and Tohoku Electric Power Co , serving the devastated northeast region.
Utilities in other regions are also on alert for possible supply shortages this summer, with safety worries prompting local authorities to refuse to allow reactors shut for maintenance to be restarted.
"Solar is the most appropriate to cut demand in peak hours," said Hiroshi Komiyama, chairman of Mitsubishi Research Institute. The government could start by boosting its use in quake-affected areas, he said.
Solar alone can't handle the need for electricity in Japan or any other country. Combined, however, renewable sources together with stepped-up efficiency and conservation can replace both CO2-emitting fossil fuels and nuclear power based on current technology. The question, in Japan and elsewhere, is whether the political will to carry out this switchover exists. Let's hope in this case the past is no guide to the future.
