In many ways, I believe that 2012 will be a repeat of 2008. To be certain, some of the margins in the swing states will be tighter than they were in 2008. But I really don't see the Republicans winning in battleground states where diversity is accelerating like Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, or Nevada. Additionally, with the death of Osama bin Laden, many of the typical piece-of-shit arguments that Republicans fling at Democrats during a normal election cycle will not even be mentionable for quite a while.
It seems clear that the centerpiece of the Republicans' electoral strategy is to focus on Florida first. Not only are the Republicans holding their convention in Tampa, they have occupy the governorship there as well. And we all know how significant this was in the razor-thin election of 2000. In terms of political strategy, the Republicans will attack Obama on the economy and make the unfounded claim that he has steered the country too far to the rational, er, um, left.
The following are my predictions of what will happen nationally and in the so-called battleground states. Although it is clear that Obama will not win Texas, I'm including it here anyway, because after 2012, Texas, with its amazing diversity, will be a surefire battleground. I also believe that Georgia and Arizona could emerge as real blue states in the years to come.
2012 NATIONAL
OBAMA MORON OTHER
71% White .41 .58 .01
13% Black .93 .06 .01
11% Latino/Hispanic .65 .33 .02
5% Asian/Other .62 .36 .02
TOTAL 51.45 47.39 1.16
OHIO
Obama 49.44 Repub. 48.8
PENNSYLVANIA
Obama 52.56 Repub. 46.04
FLORIDA
Obama 50.07 Repub. 48.93
NEVADA
Obama 53.61 Repub. 44.81
VIRGINIA
Obama 51.41 Repub. 46.96
COLORADO
Obama 50.28 Repub. 48.09
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Obama 51.4 Repub. 47.3
INDIANA
Obama 48.83 Repub. 49.84
NORTH CAROLINA
Obama 49.7 Repub 49.3
MISSOURI
Obama 48.77 Repub 49.73
GEORGIA
Obama 48.7 Repub 50.3
NEW MEXICO
Obama 55.01 Repub 43.3
ARIZONA
Obama 49.6 Repub. 48.4
TEXAS
Obama 45.08 Repub. 53.52
IOWA
Obama 50.36 Repub. 48.04
MINNESOTA
Obama 52.54 Repub. 45.96
MICHIGAN
Obama 53.7 Repub. 44.8
WISCONSIN
Obama 52.33 Repub. 46.17
MONTANA
Obama 45.3 Repub. 51.8
Now, if we can turn for a moment to the non-battleground states, we will see that the Democrats once again have a huge advantage upfront.
SAFE DEM
California 55
New York 29
Illinois 20
Pennsylvania 20
Michigan 16
New Jersey 14
Washington 12
Massachusetts 11
Maryland 10
Connecticut 7
Oregon 7
Nevada 6
New Mexico 5
Maine 4
Hawaii 4
Rhode Island 4
Delaware 4
DC 3
Vermont 3
TOTAL: 234
SAFE REP
Texas 38
Tennessee 11
South Carolina 9
Alabama 9
Kentucky 8
Louisiana 8
Oklahoma 7
Utah 6
Kansas 6
Mississippi 6
Arkansas 6
Nebraska 5
West Virginia 5
Idaho 4
Montana 3
North Dakota 3
South Dakota 3
Alaska 3
Wyoming 3
TOTAL: 143
True, it's debatable whether some of the states I've listed are actually safe for Obama. But, as Joe Scarborough is fond of saying, states like Pennsylvania are "Fool's Gold" for Republicans. They trick themselves into believing these states are winnable, but they're not. The same could be said of Michigan. And states that used to be hotly contested like New Mexico and Nevada are simply growing too diverse for the Republican Party to even compete there. The Republican Party is not popular with the fastest growing segments of our society.
Now, let's turn our attention to the Gallup state by state approval ratings for Obama to reinforce the idea of which states are "safe" and which states are battleground. According to gallup.com, Obama's approval as a whole for the year 2010 was 46.8 as compared with his disapproval rating of 45.7.
STATE APPROVAL DISAPPROVAL
DC 84.4 10.4
HI 65.9 26.5
NY 56.6 35.2
MD 57.6 35.9
CA 54.5 36.0
RI 55.1 37.1
DE 56.3 37.3
VT 52.6 37.4
MA 55.2 37.7
IL 53.4 38.6
CT 54.0 39.2
NJ 51.3 40.9
WA 50.2 41.8
MI 48.9 42.0
MN 48.2 42.9
NM 48.6 43.2
OR 47.8 43.2
WI 47.8 45.0
NV 47.0 45.3
IA 47.5 45.4
OH 47.4 45.5
ME 46.4 45.6
VA 46.6 45.6
NC 46.9 45.8
PA 46.3 45.8
FL 45.8 46.0
MS 47.1 46.1
GA 45.5 46.5
TX 44.8 46.6
CO 45.2 46.9
NE 44.7 46.9
SD 43.0 48.2
IN 43.9 48.4
ND 41.4 49.0
SC 43.9 49.3
MO 41.4 50.1
AK 38.5 50.5
TN 40.9 50.5
NH 41.3 51.1
KS 39.3 51.4
LA 42.6 51.4
MT 39.1 51.6
AL 41.0 51.6
AR 39.2 51.9
AZ 40.2 51.9
KY 38.6 53.7
OK 36.6 56.1
WV 33.4 58.4
UT 33.8 58.5
ID 31.6 59.9
WY 27.6 64.8
Here is a link to the full data: http://www.gallup.com/...
Of course, none of these polls take into account the successful campaign to bring down Osama bin Laden. It's not clear what sort of lasting impact that this event will have on the election and on the public mood. The good news though is that the Republicans have put all their eggs in one batshite crazy basket and it has blown up in their faces. How much more trivial does the Birther movement seem now?
Now let's take a look at a different set of polls - a group of battleground state polls conducted in January by our own favorite pollster, Public Policy Polling:
NORTH CAROLINA
Obama leads Gingrich by 5, Obama trails Huckabee by 1, Obama leads Romney by 3
FLORIDA
Obama leads Gingrich by 5, Obama leads Huckabee by 5, Obama leads Romney by 2
VIRGINIA
Obama leads Gingrich by 11, Obama leads Huckabee by 5, Obama leads Romney by 5
OHIO
Obama leads Gingrich by 6, Obama leads Huckabee by 1, Obama leads Romney by 2
These are fairly solid figures, considering the somewhat fragile state of the economy. These numbers pretty much confirm my feelings on these states and I believe that Obama will torch whatever Republican he's up against in the debates three times in a row. Here is a link to the full article: http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/...
I believe when all is said and done, Obama will garner 358 electoral votes to the Republican's 180. It could possibly be more, but I don't honestly believe it will be any less. Here is a link to an interactive map where you can visualize many different electoral scenarios: http://www.270towin.com. In my current projection, I have him losing Indiana, picking up Arizona, and achieving the same result in all the other states. If he really went after Georgia, I think he could take it - Georgia is transforming before our eyes. By 2016, Georgia could theoretically be a light blue state. The Republicans are running out of states in which to compete during Presidential elections.