Public Policy Polling (PDF) (5/19-22, Ohio voters,
3/10-13 in parentheses,
12/10-12/2010 in brackets):
Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 51
Ken Blackwell (R): 33
Undecided: 15
Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 51
Kevin Coughlin (R): 30
Undecided: 19
Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 49 (49) [43]
Jim Jordan (R): 31 (30) [35]
Undecided: 21 (21) [22]
Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 48 (49) [43]
Josh Mandel (R): 31 (34) [38]
Undecided: 21 (18) [19]
Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 50 (49) [40]
Mary Taylor (R): 31 (30) [38]
Undecided: 19 (21) [22]
(MoE: ±4.1%)
Back in December of last year, shortly after Ohio was pretty much ground zero for the Democratic wipeout in the 2010 midterm, Sherrod Brown was looking like he was in dire shape, polling in the low 40s. A funny thing happened since then, though: people got to see what it's like again to have Republicans in charge (in Ohio's case, with John Kasich in charge as governor, who at this point would lose to Ted Strickland by 25 points in a PPP hypothetical-rematch poll). The overall shift in the direction of the political winds -- particularly pronounced in Ohio -- has taken what initially looked like a Tossup, given a decent GOP challenger, and it turned it into what's looking like a snooze instead, with Brown racking up leads in the vicinity of 20 and hovering around the magic '50' mark.
Brown -- still in his first term in the Senate -- isn't widely-known (39/28 approvals, with 32% unsure), but his potential GOP opposition is much less known, with almost all of them in negative territory. The best-known is ex-SoS and 2006 gubernatorial loser Ken Blackwell (21/34), although his better-known-ness isn't helping him overperform the others against Brown; the least-disliked is Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor (18/18). The two who are actually taking steps toward running, though, state Treasurer Josh Mandel and state Sen. Kevin Coughlin, are neither liked nor known, at 15/18 and 4/16 respectively. (Blackwell has made some interested noises in the last week, though, so he may too join the field.)
Public Policy Polling (PDF) (5/19-22, Ohio Republican primary voters, 3/10-13 in parentheses):
Ken Blackwell (R): 40 (17)
Jim Jordan (R): 12 (8)
Josh Mandel (R): 9 (6)
Mary Taylor (R): 7 (9)
Kevin Coughlin (R): 4
Someone else/not sure: 28 (25)
Ken Blackwell (R): 49
Josh Mandel (R): 16
Kevin Coughlin (R): 4
Someone else/not sure: 31
(MoE: ±4.9%)
As for who wins the booby prize that the GOP nomination seems to be shaping up to be, it looks like it's Blackwell's for the taking, if he gets in. Blackwell wins the kitchen-sink configuration, and gains further ground when the field is pared down to the three likely candidates. Of course, that may have a lot to do with the name rec disparity between him and the other candidates, so that gap may narrow quite a bit... especially since Mandel (whose name usually gets "rising star" appended to it) seems to be the choice of the party establishment, and the money is likely to flow in his direction.
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